Gameplan valid as long as BTC remains below 12.1k.
1D
IF we reclaim below range high @ 10.6k, imo tapping demand at 9.6k is imminent, and we will have a bullish and bearish case, both marked on chart:
- Bullish case (green): Demand holds, bullish MS preserved, consolidate then mark up to new highs
- Bearish case (red): Demand doesn't hold, liquidity below swing points at 8823 & 8630 are taken, break into bearish MS. I currently believe it would be a sweep and not a stop run because 4H-12H oscillators look like they'll be oversold, and that area is concave arc support.
12H
Here's how I plan to play this:
#1 Short: IF we retrace upwards from here, I'll open a heavy short at supply, 11550-11750. Invalidation 12075 and targets 10400 & 9650.
#2 Short: If we reclaim below 10.6k, regardless of if we retraced first, I might play a range reclaim setup, targeting demand at 9600-9300, depending on how clean the PA looks at that moment.
#3 Long: IF the reclaim occurs, then I will long demand at 9450-9250 with invalidation at 8950-8800. This continues bullish MS so targeting new highs at 12666 is logical. But 10.6k will be a significant barrier since it would be a range high reclaim + retest, so 50% TP there.
I personally hope demand breaks because the resulting bearish MS would be good news for my full 1x short. But the RRR is good here for longs, and it's a pretty pivotal area; should be able to make money either way. It's hedging my hedge I guess
#4 Long: If demand does break AND we print a clean sweep, I plan to long a reclaim of the May 25 swing low towards a test of 10.6k, stop below the wick. Since we'd have bearish MS then, the range high test should hold and so I'd set full TP at ~10550 (and prob flip short again)
I find trading is less stressful when I plan actions in advance like this - the analysis is already done when the opportunity arrives, so it's easier to go against the crowd and not get caught up in the moment
Anyways just sharing my thoughts as usual, not financial advice, take what you will.
1D
IF we reclaim below range high @ 10.6k, imo tapping demand at 9.6k is imminent, and we will have a bullish and bearish case, both marked on chart:
- Bullish case (green): Demand holds, bullish MS preserved, consolidate then mark up to new highs
- Bearish case (red): Demand doesn't hold, liquidity below swing points at 8823 & 8630 are taken, break into bearish MS. I currently believe it would be a sweep and not a stop run because 4H-12H oscillators look like they'll be oversold, and that area is concave arc support.
12H
Here's how I plan to play this:
#1 Short: IF we retrace upwards from here, I'll open a heavy short at supply, 11550-11750. Invalidation 12075 and targets 10400 & 9650.
#2 Short: If we reclaim below 10.6k, regardless of if we retraced first, I might play a range reclaim setup, targeting demand at 9600-9300, depending on how clean the PA looks at that moment.
#3 Long: IF the reclaim occurs, then I will long demand at 9450-9250 with invalidation at 8950-8800. This continues bullish MS so targeting new highs at 12666 is logical. But 10.6k will be a significant barrier since it would be a range high reclaim + retest, so 50% TP there.
I personally hope demand breaks because the resulting bearish MS would be good news for my full 1x short. But the RRR is good here for longs, and it's a pretty pivotal area; should be able to make money either way. It's hedging my hedge I guess
#4 Long: If demand does break AND we print a clean sweep, I plan to long a reclaim of the May 25 swing low towards a test of 10.6k, stop below the wick. Since we'd have bearish MS then, the range high test should hold and so I'd set full TP at ~10550 (and prob flip short again)
I find trading is less stressful when I plan actions in advance like this - the analysis is already done when the opportunity arrives, so it's easier to go against the crowd and not get caught up in the moment
Anyways just sharing my thoughts as usual, not financial advice, take what you will.