BTCUSD / Dead-cat-bounce, LL + HL = bear continuation

I believe what we just saw was a pretty phenomenal DEAD-CAT-BOUNCE.
On top of some heavy exchange manipulation to liquidate a massive amount of shorts that had been piling up over the past week (thats how they make money, trading against all of us).
Exchanges dont want to pay you, they want to take your money, so allowing you to short and exit for profit is bad for them; likewise longing for profit is bad for them.
This is the #1 method of income for exchanges = liquidating you.

However after many 4h candle closes we can still see:
1) Lower High
2) Lower Low
3) Downward channel unbroken
4) Lower resistance levels holding
5) Decreasing volume going up
5) Stoch and RSI are overbought on all sub-3h timeframes

Now this could be changed by one and only one thing: exchange manipulation (USDT & exchanges = criminals scamming all of us).

Trading based purely on TA would however still show a very bearish market continuation.

The previous high was 7216.5.
Our current high after twice as many 4h candle closes is 7149.

I would wait for daily close today, which is coming in 1.5 hours.
If we print a lower low again and do not break above 7250 resistance then all of this holds.
If we DO break above previous high, there is an argument for bullish continuation and trend reversal, though I am not sure if that alone would qualify it.

This marked as neutral to await daily close. I wouldnt trade either way right now. If its shorting again, better to wait for more confirmation.
Anyone longing right now is taking huge risk and gambling.
They just liquidated longs over the past 4 days....do you want to get liquidated again?
The current setup has happened so many times before. Seems like people never learn.

Comment:

There is one thing that does signal bullish reversal to me which is the ETHUSD chart.
Since ETH/BTC are so correlated.
What happened to ETH is that it spiked up 13% when BTC only did 7%.
ETH printed a higher-high, and is very close to breaking the 2nd previous high.
Still has $3 to go before it does that though, and it needs to break 175 resistance, which it hasnt done yet.

This however is still matching the way ETH moved in the last upward spike. It gained an extra 2 trading zones versus BTC. In this case it gained an extra 1 trading zone.

Comment:

Otherwise same thing holds with ETH:
1) Lower Low
2) Lower High except last high (so higher high this wave)
3) Downward channel is BROKEN (so bullish)
4) looks like MORE volume in this upward movement (so bullish)

We have already seen ETHBTC as the cause for BTC being held up more than it should be.
Also the top markets are now BTCUSD, ETHUSD, and ETHBTC....
So there is an incredible amount of volume going on between btc and eth.

I have a feeling that the btc whales are transitioning to eth.
They see more future in eth than btc.
That could explain why we see eth gaining 1.5-2x everytime btc gains 1x.

This could also mean that shorting ETH when BTC goes down would be more profitable than shorting btc....or not, if ETH is holding the value better.
This is what it looks like to me right now.

Comment:

BTCUSD just printed 7212 high, which is $4 short of the $7216 previous high.
So technically I think that counts at least as NOT continuing a lower-low....
There is 1h left to finish daily candle.

This could very well be bull trend reversal.
stoch and RSI are severely overbought still but it can take some time to regenerate before continuing upwards if so.

Pay attention to daily candle and see if it breaks any additional trend reversal checks. over the next 24h.

Trade active:

IF daily candle closes below 7200, you are being gifted an incredibly good R:R SHORT
SL: 7235 (super tight! $20 wick room from previous high)
TP1: 6249
TP2: 5888

IF daily candle closes above 7225 (depends on your exchange, check previous high), then I suggest NOT TRADING and waiting for additional bull confirmations, which might take 1-2 days to develop.