BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract

* Short term (Few hours-26/08, including Sunday weekly closing candle and Monday reaction):
- We are right below the 4h and 1h clouds testing, also right below the sma200 - all this at the 10100-1215 zone, rejection will cause pull down below the symmetrical triangle which will mean that we are going to test the 9080-9480 again..
- Succeeding in overcome the 1h and 4h clouds will bring us to test the daily cloud and the ma200 again at the levels 10550-10750.. failing to preserve these will cause same effect of going bellow the symmetrical triangle, succeeding to break these will bring us to test the 10950 area (A very strong resistance/support shifting zone).
* Mid term (Symetrical triangle up to 5 weeks (including the current one) breakout , ascending triangle up to 12 weeks (including the current one) breakout ):
- Symmetrical triangle - this is the consolidation zone where we create lower highs and higher lows until we break it out and create new patterns, this is where all the chup chup is going on and nothing is certain. breaking above this triangle will lead us to test 12300 again, if we break that zone with bullish trend (higher lows, higher highs) then we are more likely to break the 14k as well and continue towards the 20k ath ... breaking below the symmetrical means we are in the ascending triangle .
- Ascending triangle is a bearish pattern , if we break below the symmetrical then the ascending one is next in the line, it has longer period of time, I believe that if we test this zone again (9080-9400) then this is a free fall towards the 5-8.2k (or more like 7500-8.2k), I really think 1 touch is enough to break it but we might need another 1, failing to do so after these 2 times will weaken the ascending triangle .


Price now is 10140.
New signal:
I will go short here 2nd position: #short#currentprice10140
SL: 10280 (a bit above the sma200, since I see that we really struggle to break it and the clouds of 4h,1h)
TPs: 9640, 9137,8600,8300 and 10% more for if we run lower prices..

Active signal:
I still hold the 1st position: #short#currentprice10730
Still SL at: 10385 (I you want you can put it together with the 2nd short)
Still same existing TPs: 9640, 9137,8600,8300 and 10% more for if we run lower prices..
TPs we already hit: 10160, 10060, 9895 (40% of profits so far, I recommend to take another 10% now just in case...)
Aug 23
Comment: I want to add my personal thinking on where we go short-mid term:

* Technically:
- Volume buying power keeps droping (fits to 5-8.2k+/- zones behaviour)
- Accumulation/Distribution - sure on hourly/4h looks like we keep accumulating, but on daily looks to me as we slowed down and on weekly/monthly we pretty much falling...
- Indicators - anything is possible and I might be wrong here due to whales/institutions/nextBullrun, but I prefer bigger picture cycles (not hourly-4h like most are too focussed on, but daily or even better: weekly, monthly) so all those people who say that these indicatore rsi/stochRSI/mcad/wavetrend and so on are at the buttom? then my opinion is that daily can easily continue to squeeze these and weekly/monthly are far from buttom (Especially if we compare these to the last parabolic run we had)..
- If we compare last parabolic run to the current 1, then last one got a reset between 1'-0.7' fib levels, I do believe that the current one must to do the same.

* Sentimentally:
- Moonphases (Short term) - we are in a 'full moon' phase which means that it is possible to push above the clouds towards the top symmetrical triangle zone, but failing to do so until 2/09 will cause an ever worst sentiment which will cause on the coming 'new moon' phase even stronger chance to break the symmetrical triangle, this can cause even greater impact if we will break the symmetrical triangle before we pass even half of the 'new moon' cycle which will lead to free fall even below the ascending triangle.
Aug 23
Trade closed: stop reached: The signal: #short#currentprice10140
SL: 10280 was hit.
Signal is not relevent atm.

the volume is rising bits by bits... only a matter of pressure...
this is was a good sl, tight and right above a critical point, we managed to hit sl and now we are going to test some other critical points which is why I'm not gonna enter another position within the cloud of 4h which has many resistances (especially since we might be testing the daily cloud this time), if we break the 4h cloud (with sma200 and ma200 which are inside), then we will might slice through the daily cloud as well.
Aug 23
Trade active: Only one more signal is still active: #short#currentprice10730
Still SL at: 10385 (I you want you can put it together with the 2nd short)
Still same existing TPs: 9640, 9137,8600,8300 and 10% more for if we run lower prices..
TPs we already hit: 10160, 10060, 9895 (I recommand to make sure and take until now 10221 50% profits)
Aug 23
Comment: I think we we are going for a bull trap around the: ma200(4h), daily starting edge cloud, 4h edge ending cloud, and a wick above hourly cloud... the zone range for the bull trap would be: 10445-10600 (So passing 10600 with good volume and some bullish patterns will mean we are trending up towards the 11200-11800 zone (Respectivly to the symmetrical triangle, if we won't see bullish patterns we will find another short momentum).
Aug 23
Comment: Everywhere I wrote Ascending, I meant descending, sorry for confusion :(
Aug 23
Trade closed: stop reached: Old position (closed now):
SL hit at 10385 (with the rest of the 50% leftover)
We TPed well 50% at: 10160,10060,9895 and 10221..
Aug 23
Trade active: New position:
SL: 10680 (right on daily cloud)
TPs: 10260, 10130, 9640, 9137, 8600, 8300 and another 10% for any lower price.
Aug 23
Comment: Why I went into this pos?
- Volume overall is low on daily - depends how we close today and depends if we break the ma200 and the 4h cloud I want to see how much volume will be at that point
- Also I want to see if daily cloud will reject this rise, because if it will then we are going heavily down.

I will be following the overall mood and TA and decide if I stay in this position or not... I will update.
Aug 23
Comment: I really suspect bull traps here guys, Im sure of it from different aspects, but the question is where will the whale stop pumping it for the bull traps (like I mentioned before), this is why I entered now and will follow to see if I should exit, but next good place to short would be around 10870-11280.
Aug 24
Comment: #short#currentprice10415
the price now is: 10164
SL move to: 10470
TPs hit: 10260 (Took 10%)
next TPs: 10130, 9640, 9137, 8600, 8300 and another 10% for any lower price.
Aug 24
Trade active: #short#currentprice10415
the price now is: 10148
SL move to: 10470
TPs hit: 10% at 10260, 10% at 10130
next TPs: 9640, 9137, 8600, 8300 and another 10% for any lower price.
Aug 24
Comment: I think if we are going to at least 9850-9900 zone..

Because below that (this is breaking the symmetrical triangle) it will be much deeper to 9100-9400...

Retrace to 10300-10500 will be final test if will happen, why? because it is going to the weak point of 4h cloud (where usually easier to break up/down, and because it will be 3rd atempt which usually also weakens it), it will also use sma200 as support, strong push there will enter the daily cloud again which means we might break this time since it will bring more volume to push it up...

But if we retrace to 10300 and reject, then its a free fall below the symmetrical triangle, and this time I think we will break the descending as well because 3rd touch with strong bearish signs and low buying power volume and panic sell as the sentimentals in the market are also bad..
Aug 24
Comment: Why we started to drop? because a lot of resistances at these levels were created so far on the 4h cloud, also we created a peak 2 candles:
1. hammer - with really weak volume which has no value
2. hanging man - with bigger volume which cause the drop...
Aug 24
Comment: This is what I mean:
Aug 24
Trade active: #short#currentprice10415
the price now is: 9936
SL move to: 10375
TPs hit: 10% at 10260, 10% at 10130
I will take another 30% profits now at 9936 (Just in case)
next TPs: 9640, 9137, 8600, 8300 and another 10% for any lower price.
Aug 25
Comment: ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

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Aug 27
Trade closed: stop reached: #short#currentprice10415
the price now is: 10334
SL hit at profits: 10375
TPs hit: 10% at 10260, 10% at 10130, 30% at 9936, 10% at 10043.
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