XBT - possible 1250$ low getting closer

As mentioned in previous idea, XBT on its way to choose the final direction,
the move from 3800 to 4130 was a trap to fill shorts fueld by IHS meme.
How could it be spotted:

- XBT moved from 3800 to 4100 but Alts did not follow, especially ETH
- the huge bearish rejection at 4130 with a brutal dump followed
- 4130 huge resistance line from bear trend
- shorts on bottom, longs on top (Bitfinex)
- and the most significant: it is the retrace Area for an ABC correction to the downside.

2 scenarios possible:

- Double Bottom
- V-Shaped Bottom

3800 key level

1 Scenario Double Bottom:
If 3800 gets rejected brutal down we going to at least 3250$ and try to form a double bottom with confirmation on weekly.
This would be an bullish ABCD correction completed with confirmed healthy retrace. If 3250 fails we go under 3k and things change completely.

2 Scenario V-Shaped Bottom:
Ther is still the chance XBT finds support at 3800 and move towards 4400$ to complete the bearish ABC correction.
This would lead to market collapse because of the followed bearish 5 wave move to 1250$ (Capitulation)

If u want to play with the Market Maker you must follow his rules. Hope this inspires some.

Trade active:

Update 4h Timeframe

3800 broken, ABC correction confirmed, Target 3250$ XBT, Wave 3 ongoing, Wave 4 forming

Target around 3250$ - Fib 1.618

Comment:

Target ABC wave 4 around 3750-3813

Comment:

Extremly weak performance on XBT (BTC on Bitfinex flat in bearish Wedge)

Target C Timeframe closing soon. Possible Bearish playout to 3380-3350 with followed Upmove to 3800 before reaching bottom Zone.

Bearish Wedge Targets:

Comment:

Currently Trap Setup Building:

3800 was not tested, 3380 not reached yet.

Breaking 3570 can lead to a Correction Move. Shorting with tight SL.

Comment:

Trap:

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Bulls need to push soon or we go down and Trap is closed:

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Support for Bulls:

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XBT at critical Level, 3575-3614 Bounce Area for 3850. Possible Bart Move Setting up:

Comment:

1 Target Pattern spotted:

Comment:

Bart accomplished. Bottom of Bart Box at 3540 ticked and closed above 3575.
XBT now neutral.

Target Bulls: 3863
Target Bears: 3350 - 3380

Invalidations:
Bulls, candle close under 3540

Comment:

Note:

Bull Trap Pattern yesterday at 3630
Target double top 3717, invalidated with candle under 3618

Comment:

Top of Bart Box ticked, Bulls need candle close above 3670, until then still neutral

Comment:

Since the drop from 41130 to 3480 there is no much Volume in play, XBT shows no clear Direction. Both, bears and bulls hide their moves really strong. Last Supports get bought heavily without any correction but also highest Resistance get sold instant without correction.

What happens between this range seems more like an algo is catching the x100 x50 positions to liquidate the gamblers.

A Pattern can repeat, XBT show sometimes a repeat from high to small Timeframe with same algo to hide the next moves. It is quite a clever algo because it is impossible to know the clear direction. there are always 2 doors open like now, 3850 and 3350. The range creates a bullish and bearish outcome but never confirms the direction until a clear breakout with a Bart Move. Most can't catch it or see it too late because the move happens in seconds. You can't beat the Bank.

Algo:

Comment:

Ticking Timebomb Bitfinex Shorts.

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Still neutral, may decide today direction

Comment:

Upmove reached with rejection to the downside. Well, on weekly morning star doji. Should be an interessting week for bulls.

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Bears:

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Bulls: