Before the May 15 market should decide on the direction and if the green support will continue to hold (as it historically did even pre 2014) or if the bear market is going to continue. If the price of 11k USD per BTC is exceeded before May 15 I would assume it to be a bull trend.
Comment:
I expect here for the support around 3-4k to be tested again, if that holds then we can expect uptrend once the halving comes around otherwise we will continue down to the 1.2-1.8k region.