Bitcoin Daily Update (day 227)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30

Previous analysis / position: Outlined entries at $6,239 and as well as $6,400 - $6,500 / Short BTC' at $6,330.50 | Stop order triggered on ETH while typing this at $192.70
Patterns: Descending triangle | phase 2 hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: (Bitmex) S: $6,150 is being tested | R: $6,300 held strong
BTCUSDSHORTS: Currently testing the upper end of the triangle that I pointed out yesterday. Really starting to think we are going to see record highs.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Did test 12 EMA on some exchanges. On Bitmex it is - 2.96% | 26: -4.42%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -6.15% | 128: -7.74%
Volume: Mild volume on the weekly, but it did make the first higher high since August
FIB’s: 0.886 = $6,169 | 1 = $6,104 | 1.618 = $5,750
Candlestick analysis: Nasty shooting star on the daily candle
Ichimoku Cloud: Currently falling out of thick 1h cloud. Will be watching to see if it closes.
TD’ Sequential: Watching for weekly red 2 falling below red 1 to be in line with descending triangle breakdown and phase 2 of the hyperwave
Visible Range: Has fallen back below point of control and highest volume node
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.75% | 24h: -0.37% | 1w: -6.04% | 2w: -5.99% | 1m: -4.82%
Bollinger Bands: Sticking to bottom band, shooting star tells me it is unlikely to return to MA. Weekly resisted MA and should re test bottom band which is below triangle and hyperwave
Trendline: Phase 2 hyperwave = $5,950
Daily Trend: Choppy, starting to roll over
Fractals: Weekly down = $6,098 | Weeky up = $7,435
On Balance Volume: Weekly broke down support and created a lower low
RSI (14 setting): Weekly has broken down from descending triangle and has created a lower low. | D: 35.48 and turning over
Stoch: Daily is trending down nicely. Making bullish cross now, expect another lower high

Summary: The last two entries outlined were stop orders to short at $6,389 and $6,239. Both have been triggered and are into the profit. My stop loss is currently set at $6,330. The market is starting to show serious signs of life and I am expecting a big move in this next week. During time likes these it is very important to be proactive and decisive when the moment of decision comes.

Writing down my plan has helped tremendously with that. When volume and volatility pick up and my heart starts beating faster I can simply take a couple deep breaths and refer to my gameplan.

I currently have a nice short open on BTC’ and I am focusing on building on position on ETH:USD. It’s weekly chart looks like it is ready to take another dive and I am looking at a $35 target based on the visible range volume profile and hyperwave theory - return to phase 1 is expected after breaking down phase 2.

If I have time I will post a chart with my full gameplan.

Here is my plan for BTC':

Watch for $6,000 breakdown which will be a weekly red 2 below a red 1
Then expect a small bounce from $5,850 - $5,900 area
If bounce resists $6,000 - $6,150 then add to position
If bounce breaks through $6,300 then cover

If we rally from here then watch for price to re explore wick from today’s shooting star and find resistance below $6,300.