Happy Halving everyone 👌 I am going to switch it up today, due to the near halving & provide the details/fundamentals first, and the TA second. If you're a Bitcoin fanatic, this is a big day to celebrate. However I must say, if history is anything to go by, this is a 'sell the news' event. Therefore I am expecting a large drop soon.
1. Why is Bitcoins 2020 Halvening so important?
I think we can all agree that we have witnessed every single nation set record speeds with their printing machines in recent months. In my eyes it's a complete scam. If I was to partake in this I would be sent to prison for counterfeit. For them, it's OK under the name of Quantitative Easing, or stimulus-aid, but it's all the same thing. This will continue, heli-copter money has an effect on inflation, we are seeing the supply of the monetary system inflate.
This bubble can go on no more, we have so much built up too much tension we are going to witness the biggest car-crash in history, which makes March 12th simply look like a 'hiccup'. Bitcoin is deemed as a risk-on asset, so I expect Bitcoin to nuke, so be very careful whilst holding spot. Most wealthy people are assigning their wealth to gold, not Bitcoin, due to its defensive nature.
- Currently, the reward for mining a block is 12.5BTC; in May this will be reduced to 6.25BTC. At present, the annualized rate of "inflation" is approximately 3.75%; with an average of 144 blocks mined per day, at 12.5 BTC each, yielding approximately 1,800 new BTC each day.
- As of tomorrow; Bitcoins inflation rate will be 1.875%. As a result, Bitcoin will have an inflation rate lower then most of the global countries. Why is this so important? One would be advised to hold Bitcoin as the supply is fixed. Unlike we are seeing today with FIAT currencies.
2. What is the Halvening?
Bitcoin is a deflationary Currency. Overtime the inflation rate is reduced. In-fact, every 210,000 blocks, approximately 4 years - the reward per block is halved. This is Satoshi Nakamoto (pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin) ideology to managing inflation.
3. Can you explain this in simpler terms?
Currently today we operate in a capitalist society in which the Sovereign banks can effectively print more money and assign more debt to their Balance Sheet. This is a broken system in the long-term as an increase in supply de-values the price of an asset in the long-term. As Bitcoin is a non-fungible token (NFT) unlike FIAT currency; it cannot be manipulated, the inflation is fixed and therefore we should see the allocations of personal & institutional capital flow into Bitcoin , as there will be greater demand & incentive to hold Bitcoin .
Technical Analysis:
- We have had a ridiculous rally in the short-term in which we have stretched to 10k. But this cannot go on much longer, and it is within my opinion we have topped out.
- It is therefore within my expectation we have begun distribution at the top of the Pennant around the $9k level & with one more re-accumulation occurring before lift-off.
- Tether has played a huge role in this pump, and the reduction in minting in recent days has foreshadowed the top is in. Which looks to be playing-out. (Research Tether MC increase)
- We are in an ABC correction of the rally, in which I think we are about to complete wave B, initiating a bigger dump for wave C.
It is also important to note: Institutions are hedging their spot longs with shorts. So if you think retail is going to override this you are mistaken.
Weekly TimeFrame:
We still need to complete the 5th wave of this corrective pennant we are in. Therefore, I cannot see anything else then a re-tracement to at-least $5.2k.
This is my HTF analysis I am sticking to:
1. Why is Bitcoins 2020 Halvening so important?
I think we can all agree that we have witnessed every single nation set record speeds with their printing machines in recent months. In my eyes it's a complete scam. If I was to partake in this I would be sent to prison for counterfeit. For them, it's OK under the name of Quantitative Easing, or stimulus-aid, but it's all the same thing. This will continue, heli-copter money has an effect on inflation, we are seeing the supply of the monetary system inflate.
This bubble can go on no more, we have so much built up too much tension we are going to witness the biggest car-crash in history, which makes March 12th simply look like a 'hiccup'. Bitcoin is deemed as a risk-on asset, so I expect Bitcoin to nuke, so be very careful whilst holding spot. Most wealthy people are assigning their wealth to gold, not Bitcoin, due to its defensive nature.
- Currently, the reward for mining a block is 12.5BTC; in May this will be reduced to 6.25BTC. At present, the annualized rate of "inflation" is approximately 3.75%; with an average of 144 blocks mined per day, at 12.5 BTC each, yielding approximately 1,800 new BTC each day.
- As of tomorrow; Bitcoins inflation rate will be 1.875%. As a result, Bitcoin will have an inflation rate lower then most of the global countries. Why is this so important? One would be advised to hold Bitcoin as the supply is fixed. Unlike we are seeing today with FIAT currencies.
2. What is the Halvening?
Bitcoin is a deflationary Currency. Overtime the inflation rate is reduced. In-fact, every 210,000 blocks, approximately 4 years - the reward per block is halved. This is Satoshi Nakamoto (pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin) ideology to managing inflation.
3. Can you explain this in simpler terms?
Currently today we operate in a capitalist society in which the Sovereign banks can effectively print more money and assign more debt to their Balance Sheet. This is a broken system in the long-term as an increase in supply de-values the price of an asset in the long-term. As Bitcoin is a non-fungible token (NFT) unlike FIAT currency; it cannot be manipulated, the inflation is fixed and therefore we should see the allocations of personal & institutional capital flow into Bitcoin , as there will be greater demand & incentive to hold Bitcoin .
Technical Analysis:
- We have had a ridiculous rally in the short-term in which we have stretched to 10k. But this cannot go on much longer, and it is within my opinion we have topped out.
- It is therefore within my expectation we have begun distribution at the top of the Pennant around the $9k level & with one more re-accumulation occurring before lift-off.
- Tether has played a huge role in this pump, and the reduction in minting in recent days has foreshadowed the top is in. Which looks to be playing-out. (Research Tether MC increase)
- We are in an ABC correction of the rally, in which I think we are about to complete wave B, initiating a bigger dump for wave C.
It is also important to note: Institutions are hedging their spot longs with shorts. So if you think retail is going to override this you are mistaken.
Weekly TimeFrame:
We still need to complete the 5th wave of this corrective pennant we are in. Therefore, I cannot see anything else then a re-tracement to at-least $5.2k.
This is my HTF analysis I am sticking to:
