BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Looking to firstly push up to 8282.
Retest.
Then up.
Comment: Initial target was hit - so now we can expect a pullback/retest.

The progress of this bullish move is dependant entirely on whether we move back into the descending channel. If we bounce off, great. If sink back, not great.
Comment: Starting to look decent

Comment: There it goes. We might see a retest or knowing BTC it could also just power up from here.

Comment: In case anyone ever wonders about why i don't delete old S/R lines lol...

Comment: A view from the weekly. Notice two things:

1) The Golden Cross
2) Old S/R levels are always going to be relevant

Comment: As mentioned previously, old S/R lines are great. Next move to 10475

Comment: So in general when it comes to channels, the golden number is 3. 3 touches before we see a move. We are at 2 for both...

Comment: Rising Wedge forming, which could signal a dump coming:

Comment: There it goes

Comment: That's not a good sign, it's attempting to retest range and currently failing. We'll have to wait till end of the day:
Comment:
Comment: It didn't make it back to the channel yesterady so predictably now, it's falling:

Comment: Someone asked me for a target yesterday, I don't know. No-one knows. All we can do is comment on the price action.

Anyone selling you specific targets is a GURU WANNABE - avoid them. I've seen too many of them in my time trading. Worthless.

My advice, learn to trade. Don't listen to anyone, everyone is full of shit.
Comment: THIS IS NOT A COMPLETE PATTERN YET. I'm putting this here, because it does not deserve it's own post just yet. However there is POTENTIAL for a C&H on the D.

I want to stress that this means NOTHING right now, unless it completes the handle. So I will just monitor it for now:

Comment: Why do I trade high time frames and WHY YOU SHOULD TOO.

This market is immature and that makes it extremely prone to large swings. This is not due to MaNIpulAtIOn or whatever LOW IQ dumb shit your favourite Guru talks about when they LOSE YOUR Money.

It's simply due to the fact that professional traders use high tech tools to trade low times frames. If you are reading this, it's highly likely you are not them!

I trade longer time frames, and they can often take WEEKS to form. But the pattern is far more robust. Use that to your advantage.
Comment: Twas just an unsuspecting Wednesday:

Comment: Bear in mind this still does not validate the C&H hypothesis...

Longer time frames DEMANDS patience. I will wait to see what happens.
Comment: Patience.
Comment: Some of the idiocy I see on TradingView... People actually basing two weeks of price action on a 60m chart. CLOWNS.
Comment: Ignoring speculative patterns like the C&H which everyone seems to be creaming over, but HAVEN'T ACTUALLY FORMED YET...

Let's look at the weekly. We very rarely see recovery from this type of action:

Comment: Yep as I said don't get excited about C&H patterns THAT HAVEN'T ACTUALLY FORMED YET.

As well as that people running 2 week predictions based off 60m charts is the height of stupidity here on TV.
Comment: A far more likely scenario. Let's look at the weekly, we're on a downtrend right now and short of a miracle, I can see us testing that 100 MA.

Is that all doom and gloom? Not really, because that's still a general uptrend. It's just people are trying to short term trade a market which isn't conducive to short term trading unless you have any number of high tech trading tools to help you.

So as I keep saying, trade positionally. I'll buy more when I see concrete signs of a reverse and as always i'll keep my thoughts informed here

Comment: Look at the RSI line I drew just above. Never mind price action - that's a likely target.
Comment: Let's now consider the daily chart, a full retrace from an ascending triangle would place us at 7k - This matches up with the weekly 100 MA.

However this is NOT a target because I am a positional trader. Meaning that if you're not already on the winning side... wait until a trend change.

Comment: Or if you want the false security of a target

Go listen to the latest dumbshit Guru peddling two week targets from a 60 minute chart. Or the latest fuckwit who's ideas amount to nothing more than "we could go up or down".
Comment: I'm a little out of the loop, but may someone aware me on how the Guru/fuckwits are explaining this one?

Is it manipulation, coronavirus, China (in general lol) or something else this time??

LOL
Comment: This is potentially interesting. Obvious hammer but there is also a triple reversal pattern here, the name of which escapes me right now.

However I will remain patient until clearer signs on the W.

For now, it's ... interesting only.

Comment: We continue here:

Comments

Appreciate your analysis.
+1 Reply
lets go back to 9100?
+1 Reply
@daoge, please see latest comment
+1 Reply
Continued here:

Reply
Brilliant analysis! thanks
Reply
Further updates for Feb 17th - Read the attached notes and do not get over excited yet.
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