BTC - The beginning of the correction


Bitcoin price has been moving in an upward channel since May. We recently touched the upper limit of this channel at $5840. Today's price fall to $5150 represented a 23.6% fib level and may be an early sign of a larger pullback, as it was in late August and mid-late June. Then it was followed by a sideways action but eventually collapsed to 61.8% fib level. Following this pattern demonstrated I see two scenarios of the future price action.
First one (red arrow to $8100) would be an instant bounce up following EW theory believing this is just a 4th wave we are witnessing today. This move could reach $8100 which is 261.8% fib level. We saw a similar move during June-August run up. It is less likely in my opinion, as it needs to break the upward channel and there is simply no energy in the current market because of all the uncertainty, upcoming fork and lack of new money in the market (https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/ - Total Market Capitalization) Declining RSI peaks from May till today supports this theory too. Declining RSI and general FUD would be to blame for missing 261.8% fib level in latest run-up.
Second one (green arrow to $7000) would be a corrective move to the bottom of an upward channel. $4400-$4100 area would be a target depending on time it would take to get there. RSI downward breakout through 60 level would confirm this theory. Although bounce up from 60 level would allow price to return to $5800, but I doubt it will pass it. Notice breakout through 60 on 27th May. It was not a reversal sign yet since CCI failed to close bellow 0 and we had a run up to $3000. But it did cross 0 on 4th and 8th September as it was a reversal. So a breakout through CCI 0 level would further confirm a correction.
After the correction I see price climbing to $7000 as it would be 161.8% fib level. Same level that we managed to reach in current run up, because of a market conditions. In my opinion those conditions will remain at least for the next couple of months.
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