Bitcoin Daily Update (day 202)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “The market is showing significant signs of a top with the 12h red 9, daily dojis at resistance and today’s candle creating a lower low than September 14th.” / Short ETH:BTC from 0.03143 | Short ETH:USD from $211.96 | Short EOS:ETH from 0.0252326
Patterns: Descending triangle.
Horizontal support and resistance: 0.886 FIB being tested for support at $6,248 | 0.786 FIB should become ressitance at $6,377
BTCUSDSHORTS: Just broke out of bull flag. 54,125 is the target.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0079% (first time longs have paid in a week+)
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -2.89% | 28 = -4.61%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.42% | 128 = -10.17%
Volume: Large volume seems to be following this current sell off.
FIB’s: 0.786 = $6,377 | 0.886 = $6,248 | 1.618 = $5,330
Candlestick analysis: Bearish extended range candle has confirmed hanging man. Have already retraced 80% of last weeks candle.
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bearish. 4h cloud has been very helpful over past couple weeks.
TD’ Sequential: 1h is on a red 6 which indicates 3 more hours to the downside before consolidating or bouncing. Price flip on the daily. Red 3 on the 4h and currently testing TDST for suppoert at $6,250
Visible Range: Point of control/high volume node at $6,300. That should turn into strong resistance.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -4% | 24h = -3.41% | 1w = -0.63% | 2w = -14.93% | 1m = -0.87%
Bollinger Bands: Failed to return to MA after bouncing from bottom band. MA starting to angle downward on daily and weekly.
Trendline: Top of descending triangle
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Up = $6,578 | Down = $6,115
On Balance Volume: Turning over with price / no div’s
ADX: Indicates no trend
Chaikin Money Flow: Created new low on daily for bear div'.
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.33 | D = 43.87
Stoch: Made bearish re cross on the daily

Summary: We have been expecting some volatility for a while and it is starting to feel like this will be the week. This bounce did not take us as high as expected which indicates that the buyers are getting exhausted and the supply remains consistent.

I can see the short sellers exploding to over 50,000 while the price breaks down $5,000. If that happens then the fear should start to set in and the volatility should pick up significantly. I firmly believe that we need capitulation in order to end this bear market and that is how I expect it to happen.

If you are not in a position then now is not a good time to enter. There was plenty of time to build short positions over the last couple days. If you passed on that opportunity and want to short now then you ought to seriously reconsider your approach. The trendline on ETH’ provided a great risk:reward which is no longer attainable.

Keep an eye on the 1h hour TD’ Sequential if you are dying to make an entry today. It should get a 1-4 hour bounce after a red 9 and that would be the time to sell. A retest of $6,350 on BTC’ and $212 on ETH’ would provide attractive entries.

EOS:BTC appears to be breaking down and that could provide a great entry as well. I have an order set to short EOS:BTC at 0.0007474. Click here to read that analysis.