Bitcoin Daily Update (day 246)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis / position: “We got a daily close below the 3 and 8 MA’s and at the same time we confirmed that shooting star that was pointed out in yesterday’s post.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 (order to exit at 0.97)
Patterns: Testing the top of the trendline from May that used to make up the descending triangle (too close to apex, now it is invalid)
Horizontal support and resistance: Will it retest prior resistance for support at $6,350? | R: $6,440
BTCUSDSHORTS: Back down at levels of support from the last 6 months. Will it start to rebound or will it test prior support at 9,250?
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% (thought this would be much higher than 0.01)
Short term trend (3 day MA): Price closed above today, it crossed the 8 and now it trying to cross the 34 = bullish
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Still angling down = bearish
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Still angling down = bearish
Overall trend: Still bearish. Price above long term bear trendline usually represents a trap and can often provide the best entries
Volume: Not even close to the level of volume that I wanted to see to believe that this is a real move and not a trap, barely > MA
FIB’s: (Using Oct 15th candle) 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405
Candlestick analysis: 4h has long legged doji, hanging man and now a shooting star as it is testing the crucial trendline
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily cloud is fully bearish. I would think very hard about turning bullish / opening longs before price closes above daily cloud
TD’ Sequential: Weekly did not price flip and that is very important.
Visible Range: Back above point of control (POC) however inside the highest volume nodes from 2018. $6,732 represents the top of that resistance
Price action: 24h: +1.42% | 2w: -2.43% | 1m: -12.6%
Bollinger Bands: Last pump did even test the top band
Trendline: Currently testing bear down trend from May
Daily Trend: Bullish
Fractals: Last up fractal at $6,491 is still in tact
RSI: 4h overbought | 1h bear divs
Stochastic: 1h sell | 4h sell | 12h and daily still have room to go

Summary: It is way too early to turn bullish. Let me repeat that, it is WAY TOO EARLY TO TURN BULLISH. It is very dangerous to change your disposition too early, that is how you get really rekt! If you are wondering when would be time to turn bullish then keep your eye on the daily cloud and go through the following checklist:

TK’ Cross: Bullish or Bearish?
Kumo: Bullish (green) or Bearish (red)?
Price: Above (bullish) or below (bearish) the cloud?
No Trade Zone: Price inside cloud

We haven’t even re entered the cloud yet so hopefully that shows why I think it is way too early to turn bullish.

You may feel like you are missing out on something right now by not being in a long due to the market sentiment with everyone foaming at the mouth after the daily candle closed +1.5%. That was an unimpressive move and it came on low volume, I don’t see what there is to be excited about. This move is entirely insignificant until a daily candle closes above the bear trend line and it supports a throwback. Even then it will be very, very important to wait for further confirmation. If this is the bottom then you will have plenty of time to get positioned before the next bull run. Getting a worse entry price is exponentially more favorable than turning bullish too soon and getting trapped.

If this is a bull trap then you do not want to be going long when you should still be looking for shorting opportunities.

We are currently testing major resistance from the bear trend line and from the visible range volume profile with a one year lookback. The resistance cluster along with the 4h reversal candles makes a short entry look very appealing to me, however I was stopped out of my ETH’ position earlier today and I am going to wait on the sidelines for further development.