Bitcoin Daily Update (day 244)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis / position: “If you took the position that I outlined yesterday then your stop should still be safe (for now) and I don't see any reason why that should be adjusted now.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 | Short ETH:USD from $197.81
Patterns: Symmetrical triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,30 - $6,370 | S: $6,340
BTCUSDSHORTS: Dumping, currently testing monthly lows
Funding Rates: Longs will pays shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (3 day MA): Price above and it’s angled up = bullish
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Price above with bullish crossover on 3 = bullish
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Price below and angled down = bearish
Overall trend: Generally a good time to look for shorts when short and medium are opposing the long. Other option would be to wait until you get bullish crossovers with the long term MA.
Volume: lol
FIB’s: Broke through 0.618 at $6,312 and 0.5 at $6,345 | 0.382 held at $6,378
Candlestick analysis: Daily shooting star
Ichimoku Cloud: Flat cloud on 4h shows good support at $6,336
TD’ Sequential: 4h r2 after g8 (1-4 candle correction?) | 12h g6
Visible Range: Testing point of control from the last year. Should be a ton of resistance here and so far it is holding.
Price action: 24h: +0.15% | 2w: -0.76% | 1m: -3.9% (imagine being a swing trader last month smf)
Bollinger Bands: MA continues to hold as resistance
Trendline: bear: $6,529 | bull: $6,265
Daily Trend: chop
Fractals: Two down at $6,313 | Up: $6,447
RSI: 1h RSI did a great job of calling the top of yesterday’s pump. Now that the price is making higher lows and the RSI has made lower lows we have a hidden bull div
Stochastic: Daily buy | 4h sell

Summary: The longer we support above $6,328 and continue to make higher lows the more uncomfortable I get about my short position. The clean triangle on the 1h with the hidden bull div certainly adds the discomfort.

However what is most important to me is the daily shooting star that closed 2 hours ago. My stop loss is set pennies above the top of that wick. Something tells me that we will look back in a month and point to that candle as a crucial turning point for when this god awful range finally came to an end.

If tomorrow spends > 1 hour above the wick then that would put the price back above the VPVR Point of Control (POC) from the last year and would likely put us in for another test of the top of the symmetrical triangle.

Vice versa for the bottom of the candle. If the price breaks below the bottom wick then that would confirm an entry on the shooting star and a retest of the bottom of the symmetrical triangle. If that triangle doesn’t break on the next test then it will become invalid due to working it’s way too close to the apex.

If not in a position a stop order slightly below yesterday’s candle with a stop loss slightly above makes the most sense to me. I would shy away from buy a breakout to the otherside. That is simply because the long term trend is bearish and it is most profitable to trade with the trend.