Hi guys,
Let me start with what I did last time, saying I use mainly Elliott wave theory for those who are interested.
Sorry that my first chart for you was hidden due to violation.
Even more sorry because it hit the target correctly and went a little above the box I drew and stopped me but as I updated later a re-short with a stop at the high of the wave2 with a risk:reward 7:1 was a very profitable setup.
Now to the present and future. Both the impulsive move from 3200 and the now corrective move are kind of tricky in Elliott terms.
First of all, it's important to mention that I'm far from sure after that extensions if we are in wave4 or in a correction of a full five wave structure. Nevertheless, they play similarly short term.
While on this degree, firstly, this count has a low probability wave2 because of its shallow retracement which is a problem.. The other count has a deep 2 but then it starts to go ballistic in the 3rd and goes way up for a 3. Or even if it is a normal 3rd which is an option and an extended 5 wave in the subminuette it doesn't matter and here is why in lesser degree.
The correction starts with an obvious three move waveA followed by a three move waveB - i.e. obvious flat.
C goes a little tricky, starts with a sharp one looking like a zigzag, it gets a zigzag wave2
then a very sharp three which until now signals only one possible motive wave - the ending diagonal. No surprise the 4 retraces deep (it has to overlap the wave1) and it does in a complex manner, flat waveW, followed by waveX and an impulse to finish the waveY up where my target was. Now in this count we have to be in a wave5 downwards to target the parallel channel projected from the tops of wave2 and wave4. There is also the 61.8% of the upside move which is a significant support and its near the top of the wave1 which has to stay clear for an impulse. There is your buy zone. Bots are on our side rejecting the 65 on both degrees at the top so a comfortable short is now in play, although when you read it it may be late. So the better play is to wait for the target and go long unless you are scalping. I would place my stop at the top of wave1 subminuette as a penetration of it may indicate that the alternate count is in play. Nevertheless either way is a long buy for a possible wave5 or a finished correction starting a new wave1.
In a higher timeframe all of this impulsive move upside, the correction now and the next upside move are correcting the big drop of 6k to 3200. We are far from being sure if there is a new trend. If this has finished or will finish after this upside move then all of this is a corrective waveA of the sharp drop. We may now be still there or in a waveB which I described in the beginning but the important thing is that the next move upside (waveC of the a higher degree) DOES NOT DEFINE A LONG TERM UPTREND.
We can only project after the upside to 6k or so completes and see what we get. And that is of course if we are even correct about this count. Probabilities... Many of them... Never listen to someone who says he knows for sure. Market changes and gives different info all the time. Major targets are in place always like 3200 was for months, but they are not must-hits.
IMPORTANT! This setup is my own count.
First this is what I can come up with as my primary count.
Second there are other counts that can play still valid.
Third No matter if Im wrong or right, TRADING IS A MATTER OF PROBABILITIES. WE GET STOPPED 4-5 TIMES OUT OF 10.
Sometimes you are wrong, sometimes you are right. Winning is discipline taking little losses and winning big when you get it right.
Sometimes low percentage probabilities happen and really often we get the count wrong.
I read a lot of hate to traders publishing so I wanted to say this. Don't rush putting a ticket on someone. We are here to help.
Good luck!
Let me start with what I did last time, saying I use mainly Elliott wave theory for those who are interested.
Sorry that my first chart for you was hidden due to violation.
Even more sorry because it hit the target correctly and went a little above the box I drew and stopped me but as I updated later a re-short with a stop at the high of the wave2 with a risk:reward 7:1 was a very profitable setup.
Now to the present and future. Both the impulsive move from 3200 and the now corrective move are kind of tricky in Elliott terms.
First of all, it's important to mention that I'm far from sure after that extensions if we are in wave4 or in a correction of a full five wave structure. Nevertheless, they play similarly short term.
While on this degree, firstly, this count has a low probability wave2 because of its shallow retracement which is a problem.. The other count has a deep 2 but then it starts to go ballistic in the 3rd and goes way up for a 3. Or even if it is a normal 3rd which is an option and an extended 5 wave in the subminuette it doesn't matter and here is why in lesser degree.
The correction starts with an obvious three move waveA followed by a three move waveB - i.e. obvious flat.
C goes a little tricky, starts with a sharp one looking like a zigzag, it gets a zigzag wave2
then a very sharp three which until now signals only one possible motive wave - the ending diagonal. No surprise the 4 retraces deep (it has to overlap the wave1) and it does in a complex manner, flat waveW, followed by waveX and an impulse to finish the waveY up where my target was. Now in this count we have to be in a wave5 downwards to target the parallel channel projected from the tops of wave2 and wave4. There is also the 61.8% of the upside move which is a significant support and its near the top of the wave1 which has to stay clear for an impulse. There is your buy zone. Bots are on our side rejecting the 65 on both degrees at the top so a comfortable short is now in play, although when you read it it may be late. So the better play is to wait for the target and go long unless you are scalping. I would place my stop at the top of wave1 subminuette as a penetration of it may indicate that the alternate count is in play. Nevertheless either way is a long buy for a possible wave5 or a finished correction starting a new wave1.
In a higher timeframe all of this impulsive move upside, the correction now and the next upside move are correcting the big drop of 6k to 3200. We are far from being sure if there is a new trend. If this has finished or will finish after this upside move then all of this is a corrective waveA of the sharp drop. We may now be still there or in a waveB which I described in the beginning but the important thing is that the next move upside (waveC of the a higher degree) DOES NOT DEFINE A LONG TERM UPTREND.
We can only project after the upside to 6k or so completes and see what we get. And that is of course if we are even correct about this count. Probabilities... Many of them... Never listen to someone who says he knows for sure. Market changes and gives different info all the time. Major targets are in place always like 3200 was for months, but they are not must-hits.
IMPORTANT! This setup is my own count.
First this is what I can come up with as my primary count.
Second there are other counts that can play still valid.
Third No matter if Im wrong or right, TRADING IS A MATTER OF PROBABILITIES. WE GET STOPPED 4-5 TIMES OUT OF 10.
Sometimes you are wrong, sometimes you are right. Winning is discipline taking little losses and winning big when you get it right.
Sometimes low percentage probabilities happen and really often we get the count wrong.
I read a lot of hate to traders publishing so I wanted to say this. Don't rush putting a ticket on someone. We are here to help.
Good luck!
Sorry guys, tomorrow working on the next one.