Unexpected +100% - maybe more pump, or a dump back to reality

OKX:XCHUSDT   Chia Network/Tether
I rly did not expect the XCH USD price to rise quickly that much. Maybe it happend because of the low volume and because the two quick dumps before and therefore the sell pressure was low. The general downtrend is still intact. I am curious if and when we will see a retest of the resistance arround 30 USD and if it can hold. I am also very curious how high the price can rise. I still expect a decreasing price below 20 USD in mid term because of the high supply before the first halving will happen in ~ Q1 2024. But we will see. At the moment farming is still not covering the costs for many people, even with the still decreasing netspace. This could result in more farmers to hodl and waiting for higher prices to sell at and therefore lower the real supply at the market. And AFAIK there are no major announcements in the pipeline for rly big unique features or new industrial, financial or state partners. I also don't expect the company to go public within the current global market situation.

As always: No financial advice, just my thoughts.
Comment: Just some side notes:
* RSI is on daily chart higher than ever before
* RSI is on weekly chart higher than ever before (but still oversold)
* it is the highest price increase since May 2021 (26 USD to 55 USD: ~111%)
* Current price is close to 1W SMA 20 (58 USD)
Comment: ~ 40 USD could be a relative strong resistance. It was the bottom of the 1st drop in May before it changed to the resistance two weeks later. It can go up again now but need to break the 50 USD resistance and stay above a while if it rly want to turn around. If it does not, or break below 40 it is much more likely that it will go down below 30 again. It it does not break below 30 I would confirm the "maybe bottom" as a bottom. This can take a few weeks. We have still ~ 1.5y before the 1st halving with a fresh supply of 64 XCH every 10 minutes. Thats 9216 XCH per day and there is no demand yet aside of speculative buy orders.

I will keep this "Idea" up to date for a while, until the chart confirms any possible direction.

Still: Just my thoughts, no financial advice.
Comment: Updated Chart:

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