those that lead us in will lead us out-- 2019's liquidity trap

main holdings
a.o smith--4.70%
toll brothers--4.66%
owens corning--4.64%
pulte group--4.62%
home depot--4.54%
nvr inc--4.54%
lowes --4.51%
dr horton--4.45%

home building sector looks like it'll fall back to trend. longer term home building looks very healthy. the main dragger will be home builders inability to sell inventory due to overall pricing. sad as it is the overall global macro trends i watch are effecting the psychology of the underlining consumer.
partially this is due to FIC/currency's effect from global trade trends. although valuations look appealing to find winners in this sector inventory turnover will be a big component to look for.
look for excellent margins and a low price point as far as sales, but healthy demand for products.
to play XHB i would consider premium selling strategies that take advantage of this sideways market.
longer term i project catalysts will be allowing fannie mae to be private again. regulation changes on regional banking.. etc.
we're fundamentally in a liquidity trap, we need some type of influencing factor on the underlining consumer behavior for this period to get better.
im a firm believer that those that lead us in (housing, oil ...) will lead us out of the current stage
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