Energy Select SPDR -XLE - Daily/Weekly BEARISH WEDGE
The falling volume through the rally coupled with the rising, converging trend lines could be a sign that XLE is going to re-test the lows and potentially drop far under the lows.
In order to enter this trade though, I'd like to see XLE fall under the wall of volume at the 80 level and breach 79.5 before going short. You can sell on weakness below 79.5 and on rebounds to the 80 level and target the 72-71 level within a month. Typically wedges only need 1/4 of the time of the wedge to completely retrace.
The rally can be assumed to be a short squeeze, which is what falling volume is trying to tell us. If there really aren't buyers supporting this advance, then XLE can just fall on low volume. You don't need to see expanding volume on the downside in order to stay in this trade once short (breaking 79.5), but you do want to see the the market break 78 within one week once in the short. Look for 76.5 to be a big wall of support for a bounce, then once under 76.50, look for 75, then 72 as key levels of support.
Tim 1:31AM EST Thursday May 14, 2015
In order to enter this trade though, I'd like to see XLE fall under the wall of volume at the 80 level and breach 79.5 before going short. You can sell on weakness below 79.5 and on rebounds to the 80 level and target the 72-71 level within a month. Typically wedges only need 1/4 of the time of the wedge to completely retrace.
The rally can be assumed to be a short squeeze, which is what falling volume is trying to tell us. If there really aren't buyers supporting this advance, then XLE can just fall on low volume. You don't need to see expanding volume on the downside in order to stay in this trade once short (breaking 79.5), but you do want to see the the market break 78 within one week once in the short. Look for 76.5 to be a big wall of support for a bounce, then once under 76.50, look for 75, then 72 as key levels of support.
Tim 1:31AM EST Thursday May 14, 2015
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