Although the DJIA
and the SPY
keep making new highs, the XLF
hasn't quite made a .618 correction. This in itself would indicate some weakness and indicate that when or if a major bear
market develops it may be a big loser. The way I see the price action from the 2009
low to now is a A-B-C correction with the B wave the form of an expanding triangle. Using this concept it forms a good looking (to me) channel. One fairly common relationship is for the C wave to be a fib relationship to A. Commonly C=A, or C=.618x A, or C=1.618x A. Another somewhat common occurrence is for a correction to be a . 618 retracement
. Both of these may occur soon at the rectangle
labeled C? I will be watching this action the next few weeks for signs of a reversal then go short. Hope this is helpful. Have a great upcoming week.