Ripple - Bullish retail about to get hit hard

We continue to be bearish on XRPUSD and maintain our short-term price target (0.30$) and medium-term price target (0.28$). Our view is based on a combination of fundamental and technical factors. Overall, our assessment is very similar to our latest post on BTCUSD; we believe the cryptocurrency market has not bottomed out yet and has a long way to go before reversing to the upside.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of XRPUSD. Interestingly, its structure resembles that of BTCUSD.

Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.

Illustration 1.02

Retracement toward the 50-day SMA and subsequent failure to break above it supports our early predictions about the rally being doomed to fail right in the beginning.

Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish as well. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

Trade active:

Volume continues to decline, hinting at less people interested in buying XRPUSD.

Trade active:

We continue to notice bullish calls all over the place. Despite that and XRP stopping merely 0.01$ above our short-term price target (in the recent selloff and before reversing to the upside), we remain bearish and committed to our price targets. Ideally, we would not want to see a breakout above 0.40$ because that would bolster the bullish case.

Trade active:

We want to point out the price retracing toward its 20-day SMA, which is still within a regular scope of a correction. As long as the price fails to hold above this level, we have no reason to backtrack on our price targets (+ despite the short-term one being missed by 0.01488$). That is because we believe the current move up is only a bear market rally, and XRP will set new lows over time.

*If the price breaks above the 20-day SMA, it will likely provide short-term boost to XRP (postponing our price targets further in the future).

Comment:

*correction: "As long as the price fails to hold below this level, we have no reason to backtrack on our price targets"

Trade active:

As the price broke above 0.40$, we are forced to abandon our price targets (at least until the price falls back below the immediate support/resistance). Here is the updated setup.

Trade active:

Even after the breakout, the volume stays minuscule, which hints at likely reversal (unless there is a pick-up in volume soon).