I've been quite for several days, trying to avoid speaking on this before the evidence was solid enough. But now we don't need evidence to see what has happened. The priceline has been snatched right back down within the limits of the previous bearish trading channel on the micro level. Look at the previous action on the Gray 2.618 fib circle boundary. XRP was pulled back up to that line with major gravitational power, but the downtrend momentum was too powerful to keep the price propped back up as it was heading towards 0.25.
As I thought, the 2.618 gray fib circle line has a major attractive power. We just got pulled straight down to that ring, and we momentarily entered into the parallel downward trading channel. At the time of this post, we are sitting right on the intersection of the top of the parallel trading channel and the 3.618 fib circle boundary line. We could experience a pivot at this point, but I'm having a hard time finding a technical indicator up above that would support a bounce and movement to the up side.
The 4.236 gray fib circle boundary is lurking below, and I see two possibilities on the negative side for price movement. We could have a rapid fall to the intersection of the lower parallel trading channel base line, or a more gradual fall to the intersection of the 4.236 and the upper parallel trading channel boundary. The movement of BTC is going to dictate the movement of XRP, in my opinion. Will BTC continue the precipitous slide? It is possible. As I've said for a long time, a price target of $5400 BTC is very possible. Nothing in crypto is guaranteed, however, and we can only look at what we feel has the greatest probability. All indications thus far point to a continuation of the bear market and final correction for BTC before we have the next monumental bull run.
On the possibility of a bounce to the up side, we could crawl along the gray 3.618 fib circle ring for a short time. But again, I don't see what will keep the price propped up before we fall down towards the next ring below. So I will remain bearish at this point, and cautiously assume that we have not yet seen the bottom of this market. Something else to consider is the fact that the positive stochastic runs don't force the price up and out of the bearish trend. Until we see the overbought stochastic situations providing more gains than what the stochastic oversold situations pull the price down, we can guarantee that we are still in a bear market. So that plays against the possibility of any significant upward trending once we get past this intersection.
What I'm watching for in the coming weeks is whether or not we continue to trade within this down-trending parallel channel, or if we truly break out of it. Poking out on the top-side of the channel might be a false indication, as we see right now, evidenced by XRP being snatched right back within the boundaries of the micro bearish trend.
Keep in mind that only months ago, we were talking about the possibility of XRP correcting back to 0.22. We thought it was possible, but with low probability. This is a good reminder of the fact that we are still in the early stages of the overall cryptocurrency market, and we can't say with confidence that things will only propagate higher from this point while not revisiting the lows of the past 3 years. We've already violated what we thought was the absolute low point, as XRP has dipped down below the consolidation levels that we saw before the epic bull market run of 2017. I will be the first to admit that I thought we would never ever revisit those levels again. And now we are looking at a 100% correction. To be exact, we are actually BELOW the previous consolidation base level from October of 2017.
This doesn't shake my long-term outlook, though. I'm still smart enough to know that patience is the key for bagging the 10X to 100X gains in this market. But I'm super cautious and also smart enough to know that this isn't a time to be playing this market for the short term, especially with money I cannot afford to tie up.
Play it safe, and as always, this is not financial advice.
As I thought, the 2.618 gray fib circle line has a major attractive power. We just got pulled straight down to that ring, and we momentarily entered into the parallel downward trading channel. At the time of this post, we are sitting right on the intersection of the top of the parallel trading channel and the 3.618 fib circle boundary line. We could experience a pivot at this point, but I'm having a hard time finding a technical indicator up above that would support a bounce and movement to the up side.
The 4.236 gray fib circle boundary is lurking below, and I see two possibilities on the negative side for price movement. We could have a rapid fall to the intersection of the lower parallel trading channel base line, or a more gradual fall to the intersection of the 4.236 and the upper parallel trading channel boundary. The movement of BTC is going to dictate the movement of XRP, in my opinion. Will BTC continue the precipitous slide? It is possible. As I've said for a long time, a price target of $5400 BTC is very possible. Nothing in crypto is guaranteed, however, and we can only look at what we feel has the greatest probability. All indications thus far point to a continuation of the bear market and final correction for BTC before we have the next monumental bull run.
On the possibility of a bounce to the up side, we could crawl along the gray 3.618 fib circle ring for a short time. But again, I don't see what will keep the price propped up before we fall down towards the next ring below. So I will remain bearish at this point, and cautiously assume that we have not yet seen the bottom of this market. Something else to consider is the fact that the positive stochastic runs don't force the price up and out of the bearish trend. Until we see the overbought stochastic situations providing more gains than what the stochastic oversold situations pull the price down, we can guarantee that we are still in a bear market. So that plays against the possibility of any significant upward trending once we get past this intersection.
What I'm watching for in the coming weeks is whether or not we continue to trade within this down-trending parallel channel, or if we truly break out of it. Poking out on the top-side of the channel might be a false indication, as we see right now, evidenced by XRP being snatched right back within the boundaries of the micro bearish trend.
Keep in mind that only months ago, we were talking about the possibility of XRP correcting back to 0.22. We thought it was possible, but with low probability. This is a good reminder of the fact that we are still in the early stages of the overall cryptocurrency market, and we can't say with confidence that things will only propagate higher from this point while not revisiting the lows of the past 3 years. We've already violated what we thought was the absolute low point, as XRP has dipped down below the consolidation levels that we saw before the epic bull market run of 2017. I will be the first to admit that I thought we would never ever revisit those levels again. And now we are looking at a 100% correction. To be exact, we are actually BELOW the previous consolidation base level from October of 2017.
This doesn't shake my long-term outlook, though. I'm still smart enough to know that patience is the key for bagging the 10X to 100X gains in this market. But I'm super cautious and also smart enough to know that this isn't a time to be playing this market for the short term, especially with money I cannot afford to tie up.
Play it safe, and as always, this is not financial advice.