My idea is very simple and derived from several weeks of failed trades, and false assumptions especially concerning a Parabolic Rise. I was under the impression that certain patterns and shapes indicated longevity and what can or should happen but the reality is the market decides at all times. It is significantly easier to determine what the trend may be when it is a "Downward" channel because you know for the next 1-2 weeks it will be in a net decline so you can set your trades according to the volatility of your Asset. That being said Rising Channels and Parabolas are significantly different to which end I lost the most in trades due to inability to notice the trends and reversals. Therefore I began searching for the "Ultimate" trend analyser. This is what I discovered:
Trend Analysis and Price Prediction can only be done in the long term with long tested and tried metrics, but that doesn't help the Day Trader. What does help is being able to watch the trend change and intersect with the moving averages. Once you hit an intersection on the 5 Min or smaller scales you can and should buy or sell accordingly. The question is how to determine the best intersection point and when the "bottom or the top" have been met? This chart clarifies that quandary by using the following Trend Tickers: CM Ultimate MTF the Graph Overlay, and the Volume Graph below the charts. I set the Fast Length on both tools to 1, and the other settings to 12. This essentially made the moving line sit, in real time, on the graph and the real time rise and fall of orders while visually calculating the gross volume movement. From there it is a matter of your own comfort to dive into or out of a Trade!
My recommendation? Buy/Sell when the lines are horizontal, and during the first tick in the opposite direction, hedge your trade accordingly. Do not fall for the first "Trend" change because sometimes they go horizontal and you have a net loss. I prefer using the 1 min scale and trading once the angles are acute or the trend path is dual colored! By all means I welcome your ideas, feedback and other tips and tricks, I am by NO means an expert trader and made this discovery after weeks of painstaking failure haha!
Trend Analysis and Price Prediction can only be done in the long term with long tested and tried metrics, but that doesn't help the Day Trader. What does help is being able to watch the trend change and intersect with the moving averages. Once you hit an intersection on the 5 Min or smaller scales you can and should buy or sell accordingly. The question is how to determine the best intersection point and when the "bottom or the top" have been met? This chart clarifies that quandary by using the following Trend Tickers: CM Ultimate MTF the Graph Overlay, and the Volume Graph below the charts. I set the Fast Length on both tools to 1, and the other settings to 12. This essentially made the moving line sit, in real time, on the graph and the real time rise and fall of orders while visually calculating the gross volume movement. From there it is a matter of your own comfort to dive into or out of a Trade!
My recommendation? Buy/Sell when the lines are horizontal, and during the first tick in the opposite direction, hedge your trade accordingly. Do not fall for the first "Trend" change because sometimes they go horizontal and you have a net loss. I prefer using the 1 min scale and trading once the angles are acute or the trend path is dual colored! By all means I welcome your ideas, feedback and other tips and tricks, I am by NO means an expert trader and made this discovery after weeks of painstaking failure haha!