I tried publishing an update two days ago, and it mysteriously disappeared! But it worked out well, because we have even more data now that sheds light on the two possible scenarios that I'll lay out on this update.
Do you notice how the price line is crawling up the Gray 3.618 fib circle ring, just like it did above on the 2.618? This set of rings is definitely still "hot", and it is dictating future movements. I don't know how long we will hang on to the gravitational power of the magic 3.618 ring, but if the last ring was any indication, we're probably close to a divergence. Make no mistake about it, Big Brother Bitcoin will dictate which scenario plays out. But I do believe there is enough evidence showing that we are close to the jumping-off point.
"That being said" (I HATE that cliche), here are the two scenarios:
1. Within the next few days, XRP could bail off the line and take a dive towards the 4.236. I think this has the greatest probability, because we are still in a downward trend. All indications (which certainly are NOT guaranteed) are pointing to a continued BTC correction, barring some unforeseen event that causes BTC to pump. XRP is still moving in lock step with Bitcoin, as it directs the entire crypto market. I think we will still have the possibility of riding up the 3.618 for a bit, because we haven't seen the stochastic rise above the 80% oversold boundary. Once it does, we'll be a lot closer to a potential nosedive. I lean towards this scenario because of the fact that the upward stochastic cycles are not pushing the price up farther than it gets pulled down when we are at the bottom "oversold" zone, which is a clear indication of a continued bearish trend. Until the positive stochastic condition can pump the price greater than the oversold area, we're still in a down trend. That means we could drop back down to the upper boundary of the parallel trading channel, and possibly fall within the upper and lower range. I'm paying close attention to the intersection of the upper trading channel boundary and the magical Gray 4.236 as a possible target.
2. The momentum could continue the crawl up the 3.618 Gray fib circle line until we meet the intersection with the Light Blue 4.618, and then take the nose dive IF Bitcoin continues its down trend. If the entire market reverses, which I don't see happening, we could still fall back down to the Gray 4.236 somewhere around the 0.18 level where we land on the Gray 4.236. This might have the effect of "flattening out" the overall parallel trading channel, at which point I will probably change the channel to encompass the entire overall downward movement. This could mean a higher overall bottom point before we finally enter a bullish phase, but I see this as having less of a probability than the first scenario.
I could be dead wrong, because anything can happen in the coming weeks that smashes any logical scenario, so don't take this as gospel. But it's not clear enough to motivate me to gamble and increase my position before the next big bull run. The best I can hope for is a market reversal in February, but there is a possibility this bearish trend could extend beyond that point. Taking all of that into consideration, it doesn't motivate me to do anything rash. I'm fine sitting on my small position and waiting it out for the big long-term play.
Not financial advice, just calling the action as I see it. What are your thoughts about the remaining length of time before we see the next monumental run?
Comment please!
Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro
Do you notice how the price line is crawling up the Gray 3.618 fib circle ring, just like it did above on the 2.618? This set of rings is definitely still "hot", and it is dictating future movements. I don't know how long we will hang on to the gravitational power of the magic 3.618 ring, but if the last ring was any indication, we're probably close to a divergence. Make no mistake about it, Big Brother Bitcoin will dictate which scenario plays out. But I do believe there is enough evidence showing that we are close to the jumping-off point.
"That being said" (I HATE that cliche), here are the two scenarios:
1. Within the next few days, XRP could bail off the line and take a dive towards the 4.236. I think this has the greatest probability, because we are still in a downward trend. All indications (which certainly are NOT guaranteed) are pointing to a continued BTC correction, barring some unforeseen event that causes BTC to pump. XRP is still moving in lock step with Bitcoin, as it directs the entire crypto market. I think we will still have the possibility of riding up the 3.618 for a bit, because we haven't seen the stochastic rise above the 80% oversold boundary. Once it does, we'll be a lot closer to a potential nosedive. I lean towards this scenario because of the fact that the upward stochastic cycles are not pushing the price up farther than it gets pulled down when we are at the bottom "oversold" zone, which is a clear indication of a continued bearish trend. Until the positive stochastic condition can pump the price greater than the oversold area, we're still in a down trend. That means we could drop back down to the upper boundary of the parallel trading channel, and possibly fall within the upper and lower range. I'm paying close attention to the intersection of the upper trading channel boundary and the magical Gray 4.236 as a possible target.
2. The momentum could continue the crawl up the 3.618 Gray fib circle line until we meet the intersection with the Light Blue 4.618, and then take the nose dive IF Bitcoin continues its down trend. If the entire market reverses, which I don't see happening, we could still fall back down to the Gray 4.236 somewhere around the 0.18 level where we land on the Gray 4.236. This might have the effect of "flattening out" the overall parallel trading channel, at which point I will probably change the channel to encompass the entire overall downward movement. This could mean a higher overall bottom point before we finally enter a bullish phase, but I see this as having less of a probability than the first scenario.
I could be dead wrong, because anything can happen in the coming weeks that smashes any logical scenario, so don't take this as gospel. But it's not clear enough to motivate me to gamble and increase my position before the next big bull run. The best I can hope for is a market reversal in February, but there is a possibility this bearish trend could extend beyond that point. Taking all of that into consideration, it doesn't motivate me to do anything rash. I'm fine sitting on my small position and waiting it out for the big long-term play.
Not financial advice, just calling the action as I see it. What are your thoughts about the remaining length of time before we see the next monumental run?
Comment please!
Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro