tarzibou

XRP: bear trap of descending triangle

Long
POLONIEX:XRPUSD   XRP / U.S. Dollar
Since 10 months XRP is in a consolidation area between 25 and 60 Cents and it looks like the same situation it had around December 2016 (not 2017!) but with a considerably lower volume .

According to my Elliott counting it is still in final subwave C of wave (4) and the market is deciding where C should end.

Therefore it has formed a descending triangle which most of the time is bearish but can also become extremely bullish the longer it remains in the lower right corner of that triangle and the more the volume rises in this area. A bearish outbreak of that triangle could lead to a final C target around 2.4 Cents (be aware!).

I am not convinced this triangle is bearish as we can observe a slightly rising volume and a former outbreak of this triangle to the upside in the week of May the 13th (resulting in forming just a longer triangle at the moment). Instead, it is more likely we see a similar bear trap as in February/March 2017 which results in a parabolic movement to the upside afterwards. This bear trap would end near the legit area of former wave 4 around 16 Cents, forms a new upward channel (shown in red) and gives us an idea of the final targets.

The rest is explained within the chart itself.
Comment:
Comment: Chuvashov did not play out. Let's see what the symmetrical triangle will do:

Comment: Bear trap incoming: Panic sellers root XRP towards 16 cents which imho is the dip.
Comment: Thanks to @alexkeation who pointed out that the first high of XRP in Dec 2013 is missing in all TradingView-data charts. Therefore the actual channel of XRP should be aligned accordingly which I did by manually inserting the data of 2013 in my chart:

As you can see, the new trianlge that has formed also points to a low around 16 cents but we have to wait another year (Sep 2020).

If the triangle is broken downwards before, it depends how this happens: any sharp(!) dip is in my opinion a bear trap with an extreme bounce potential afterwards (as seen before the end of wave (2)) while a slow but steady push downwards would be a very dangerous and unhealthy sign for XRP that includes the risk of breaking the whole upward channel (unlikely but not impossible).

Comments

Any new thoughts about xrp?
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