2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 3 (1.98132 BTC)

Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. Please be advised that I trade on high leverage and am comfortable with the risks. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

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I woke up excited to see how my positions were developing and was dismayed to an unrealized PnL of ~0.25 BTC. I tried not to think much about it as I went about my daily routine but found that a little more difficult having just started this challenge. It's been another long / stressful day but that is okay because I love this stuff! Not to mention I have an ice cold Pabst Blue Ribbon, just ate a delicious dinner and am looking forward to smoking a Cuban cigar after finishing up with my daily posts!

I really want to succeed in this and I need to be very careful about getting attached emotionally. I will write today off as first day jitters and will hope to stay engaged without staying attached.

There were a couple closes that came down to the last minute and I made a big mistake on one of them.

USD:HUF has the long term MA rolling down with the price pulling back. However the S MA is making a bullish crossover with the M MA and that signals 15% scale in. I am taking the long entries despite the L MA rolling down due to being bullish on the USD overall. I made a mistake with my math and added 0.8 lots ($80,000) instead of 0.08 lots ($8,000). Something didn't feel right but I felt pressed to get my orders in and didn't double check.

Wanting to risk in the neighborhood of 0.02 BTC and now risking closer to 0.2 BTC. That left me with the option to exit immediately and capitalize on a 0.045 BTC loss or set a market stop and let it ride with hopes to trim as soon as I get into profit. I went with the latter and I am really hoping it doesn’t bite me in the butt.

I was also really hoping to see USDTRY close closer to the top of the candle. Now I will be watching very close for support to hold strong. I am taking large positions on TRY due to the nature of the setup (potentially huge phase 3 of hyperwave).

Long: XBTM19

*SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%*

Price: $3,727
Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): 6.34%
Leverage: 10X
Exposure: $3,541
Margin: 0.957 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.0266 BTC
Realised PnL: +0.001 BTC


Long: XRPM19

*SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%*

Price: 0.00009702
Projected Risk (due to horizontal support + 33 MA): 6.37%
Leverage: 10X
Exposure: 5,385 Ripple (0.522 BTC)
Margin: 0.0537 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.0215 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.001 BTC


Long: USDTRY

Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.076 BTC

Notes: Do not like today’s close. Really wanted to see close above $5.55.

Long: USDZAR

*SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8%*

Price: $14.48
Projected risk (Parabolic SAR): 2.41%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.11 lots ($11,000)
Margin: 0.0289 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.0395 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.003 BTC

Notes: Last couple weeks have been very frustrating trading ZAR. I was fully expecting a strong fally to follow the close on the 24th which confirmed the c&h and brokethrough the descending channel. Coming up on major support from L MA and SAR. Hopefully we can rally from here.

Long: USDHUF

*ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added*

Price: $282.66
Projected Risk (Parabolic SAR): 1.80%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.96 lots ($96,000)
Margin: 0.2526 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.0755 BTC

Notes: Intended to add 0.08 lots and instead added 0.8 lots. Big mistake that could end up costing me huge. Have set market stop loss at $279.33 to ensure that it doesn’t get away from me too much.

Short: SPX500

*ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added*

Price: $2,475.22
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,526): 2.05%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.18 lots ($44.172)
Margin: 0.104 BTC
Unrealized PnL: +0.1 BTC

Notes: Want to be fully entered once / if price breaks down prior swing low ($2,320)

Short: EURUSD

*SCALE OUT 25% due to close > Long MA*

Price: 1.13387
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4%
Leverage: 100:1
Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000)
Margin: 0.063 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.0355 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC

Notes: Adjusted projected risk and set a market stop loss at 1.15010. If that gets triggered then I will lose approximately 0.09 BTC. That is about twice as much as I want to risk based on the Consensio guidelines and that is because I did not do a good job of projecting risk yesterday. This position is an early front runner for January’s Worst Dressed List.

Watchtower

ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r.

ETHBTC: Weekly Descending triangle that found support from prior ATH’s. Expecting huge volatility once it breaks. Passing on entries until a daily candle closes above or below.

XAUUSD: Didn’t find resistance from the TL which was very surprising. It continues it’s parabolic advance which does not appear to be sustainable for much longer unless there is a serious change happening under our feet.

Comment:

There will be no update in the Trading Challenge today. That is because I had a 2 hour conversation with the man himself, Tyler Jenks, this afternoon. Speaking directly with a living legend has put me on cloud 9.

Furthermore I ended up missing the daily close in the traditional markets and therefore missing all of the signals that occurred. There were a lot of them and I am not starting off on a good foot at all; -0.7 BTC in unrealized profit.

Since I missed todays close I will plan to take all Forex signals when markets re open Sunday evening (in US). I won't be capitalizing on all of that loss but will be on 15% - 20%. Lack of gaps is one of the reasons I like to trade FOREX, indicies and commodities opposed to individual stocks. Therefore I should expect to get roughly the same price as I would have at today's close, but I'm not as confident as usual about that due to the volatility we have seen lately.

Comment:

1/5

Taking a much needed night off. Going out to shoot some pool, and drink some beers. Hopefully I can get to the Trading Challenge when I get back but I'm not counting on it. I haven't added to or scaled out of any positions that I can think of the unrealized profit is still at -0.7 BTC.