XSP/SPY...probably pullback followed by upward trend
Just sharing what I see...could go up, could go down.
Couple of things to be aware of...RSI is saying overbought, MACD looks like it's peaking, we have a falling wedge still playing out from 2022, and a double top forming. There's a gap up from around Nov 17th. Some pretty squished candles on Wed/Friday (Thanksgiving or declining momentum?). Finally, Powell is speaking on Dec 1st.
So, how do I see this playing out? I think we're going to see a retracement to the 0.382 Fib level to fill in the gap over the next week or so. The biggest question is whether it's a simple pull back or we're going bearish. Odds are, NOT bearish unless Powell says that he's hiking interest rates to the moon, WW3 starts in the Middle East or something crazy.
Possible ways to play it:
- Wait for confirmation of a pullback and go short on something. Alternatively, wait for solid momentum going through $460 and go long (If solid push through $460, my hypothesis is wrong!)
- Assuming we do have a pull back, wait for the bounce at $440 and use that as an opportunity to go long. (Long bets have best odds on SPY!)
- Do NOT overly rely on the targets at $500 (Falling Wedge) and $360 (Double Top). Who knows how long that will take, or even if it materializes!
That's just what this newbie trader sees! Good luck!
Couple of things to be aware of...RSI is saying overbought, MACD looks like it's peaking, we have a falling wedge still playing out from 2022, and a double top forming. There's a gap up from around Nov 17th. Some pretty squished candles on Wed/Friday (Thanksgiving or declining momentum?). Finally, Powell is speaking on Dec 1st.
So, how do I see this playing out? I think we're going to see a retracement to the 0.382 Fib level to fill in the gap over the next week or so. The biggest question is whether it's a simple pull back or we're going bearish. Odds are, NOT bearish unless Powell says that he's hiking interest rates to the moon, WW3 starts in the Middle East or something crazy.
Possible ways to play it:
- Wait for confirmation of a pullback and go short on something. Alternatively, wait for solid momentum going through $460 and go long (If solid push through $460, my hypothesis is wrong!)
- Assuming we do have a pull back, wait for the bounce at $440 and use that as an opportunity to go long. (Long bets have best odds on SPY!)
- Do NOT overly rely on the targets at $500 (Falling Wedge) and $360 (Double Top). Who knows how long that will take, or even if it materializes!
That's just what this newbie trader sees! Good luck!
Comment:
And for those wondering why XSP? Sorry, was doing some comparisons between ES/SPY/XSP and am too lazy to swap tickers.