XTZ.usd hit target EXACTLY, now Tezos to Retrace for NEXT target

Quick post to map some zones of interest and possible next legs.
Current structure and Fib cohesion indicates more upside is likely.
Then again it could have a Matic-Moment any instant so be careful.

This is a quick plot based on only rough measurements.
It is moving so quickly that I wanted to put this out asap.
If I run into any dramatic variances I will post an update.

Retrace could go as deep as $1.5xx and STILL be headed to final target.
Ideally it would consolidate around $1.65 and then proceed to next leg.
Break below $1.5 would invalidate target and imply deeper correction.

Every retrace may be correcting a wave from any order (smallest to largest).
So a "Genesis Correction" could take us to 61.8% of first move (to say $1.00).
But all signs point only to a correction of the last 12435 wave (green circles).

Previous Analysis Leading up to where we are now:

First Hints of a "Golden Growth" happening:

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First Precise Target set for $1.85:

Comment:

Early Update

The retrace is well under way, just hit first support and appears to be "well behaved":

Fib of retrace is quite clean, and the 3.236 COULD be end of wave.

Zoom OUT to 15 min, Fib of retrace looks to fit PERFECTLY with the support zones

The blue 4.236 is likely target, perhaps after a bounce at the 3.236.

In summary:
Retrace proceeding in a rhythmic manner, a good sign (no crash).
1st support has shown a clear reaction, and may hold but unlikely.
But if hits 2nd support it has a good chance to resume uptrend from there.

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Comment:

New Support Zone added

Given the new Blue fib of retrace, its 5.236 could well be a target for retrace

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Comment:

Bounce from New Support Zone

Thus far the bounce from expected support is moving up nicely

they key is it bounce from an EXPECTED area.
When that happens, we can have more confidence in the bounce.

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So if ABC is done, do we have an Impulse off that support? Possibly yes.

Couple of decent pings for confirmation.
Now to watch the action around this new fib, in conjunction with the existing fibs.

Comment:

Uh oh!

Our little bounce wore out and is about to pierce the immediate support

Zoom IN (1min) and added Fib to the last leg down

Not as clean as I would like, but not bad.

Zoom OUT (5min) with new Fib added to existing plot

We can assume the ABC is of one order larger than earlier plot.

Zoom OUT (15min) to original plot and looks like wave C target would be precisely within our zone.

But of course it could just fall straight through, then we look to the next support and any new fib based clues.

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Comment:

Bounce?

Bit of a recoil above the support zone last mapped

Needs a closer look.

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Looks like the Blue 5.236 might have bounced it.

I was counting on the 5.618 just below.
It could come back down, but the bounce looks decent thus far.

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Comment:

Zoom IN

Highlight that blue fib mentioned above:

looks like it is still in control, even of the bounce.
Not a great sign for bulls, because these ripples are moving downwards.
But a good start is to bounce 2-3 bands, which it did.
Now it needs to break free of this fib and establish a new Impulse.


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Comment:

Wave 4 not quite done?

Support zone as been pierced, but is showing some buoyancy

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Zoom IN (5 min) and adding a fib to the retrace

good rhythm, 2.618 can end weak retraces.
Some consolidation above the 2.618 and a slow crawl up would be a good start for wave 5

Adding that fib to the original plot

We now have a crucial validation/invalidation zone just below 1.7.
The blue 2.618 that bounced it twice probably will not do so a third time.
Thus it is imperative that bulls get back above the 1.618 and hold it.

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Zoom OUT (1 hr) back to the original scope

We know have two more support zones below.
It would be nice to launch off that dark blue 2.618 but seems unlikely at this point.
$1.6 would be the ideal end of wave 4, and $1.5 is the absolute lowest acceptable.
Any lower than $1.5 would imply uptrend is over.

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In Summary:
- thus far the retrace is showing its own rhythm, which means it could persist longer.
- We have two new support zones to observe.
- $1.5 is absolute lowest threshold before uptrend is at risk.


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Comment:

Still no decision.

We are still hovering around the expected wave iv end point

A slightly higher low on the 4 hr, so that's something.

Zoom IN (13 min) Dark blue 2.618 currently holding,

and with a good looking ping that just might launch the wave 5

Immediate resistance of concern is the Blue 2.618 at $1.7213

So lets see if it can get there, and the reaction to it.


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