scorpiris

Yara is in a declining trend

scorpiris Updated   
OSL_DLY:YAR   YARA INTERNATIONAL ASA
The analysis here may be irrelevant if you are long.

Yara is in a declining trend – price < SMA50 < SMA100 < SMA200.
Double peak (DT) from around July 17 to October 19, 2023, where the object has been taken out.
Support, when looking back in time on the 5 year chart, around 335 and 310.
Oversold January 5-8 and from January 12, 2024 at RSI 7, but not RSI 14.
Oversold in the same periods at Williams%R 14.
Price momentum indicators overall on sell.
There is no good correlation between price and volume.
The stock is technically negative over the medium term — one to 6 months.

The sum of short positions is 0.00%. On 28.11.23 there was a position of 0.5% one day and from 3 to 5 July -23 a position of 0.5%. That doesn't suggest that those who shorter think there's much to be gained.

The price is in down trend as the last 3 quarters have been disappointing. Fundamental analysts are, on average, neutral on the stock. Refers to Trading View and Yahoo Finance.

NB: Remember you must do your own research and assessment before buying and selling.

NB: I have a position in Yara. I have an unrealized price loss on the stock, but it's only about half of my dividend on the stock. Consider down selling or stop loss to reduce the risk of loss.
Comment:
Yara is in a down trend and it is until proven otherwise. The trend is normally more significant than support levels and short term indicator like RSI etc. Nor are there any strong reversal formations now.
A down trend takes an average of a year and Yara has been in a down trend since the beginning of March 2023, so it's almost a year. But it's average.
If you look at a 5 year graph of price, you have to go back to October-November 2020 to find a price of 340. It is well below 0.236 on Fibonacci Retracement and 0 is apx. 310 and is in May 2020. This indicates a sharp downward trend.
It will probably be very significant how Q4 turns out and into then expectations for Q4.
A Q4 that surprises positively can turn the technical picture.

On Trading View, 17 fundamental analysts have an average price target after a year of 388 with a spread from 297 to 456. On Yahoo Finance, the corresponding figure is 17 – 394 (260 – 476). It's probably the same analysts.
The price often moves further up or down than you think. If you buy now, you have to be prepared for the fact that it can go a lot further down before it turns or flattens out. If you're long-term, that might be OK. As you know, it is difficult to frame where the trend turns.

I'm probably selling what I bought first with a loss. But I reduce risk, get tax deductions and can reposition the money. Yes upstairs I can move them back at some point if appropriate. It has not been a bad investment as dividends have been somewhat larger than loss.
What I have bought afterwards I keep until further notice.

Remember you must do your own research and assessment before buying and selling. I don't recommend any specific dispositions to others.

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