When Relief Rally Coincided with Quad Witching

YM1!

The US equity market selloff in Q1 was pretty fierce due to a confluence of reasons. Even the large-cap stocks have entered Oversold territory, as suggested by the RSI on the E-mini Dow future. Since the middle of March, the equity market experienced a typical round of relief rally, coinciding with the Quad Witching, when a large amount of derivatives expiration, order flow, and rebalancing happened.

Now the Dow is far away from the Oversold level, and the previous support has become overhead resistance. The decline will likely resume as the Fed is determined to tighten financial conditions to fight inflation.


Entry at 34400, stop above 35450. Targets are 32500 and 30000.

Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.