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Bitcoin: mean-reversion play? key levels and targets aheadBitcoin. Who survived that liquidation nuke and who’s still coping with the PnL trauma? After the latest cascade of longs getting wiped and headlines about cooling ETF flows and tighter liquidity, sentiment flipped from euphoria to “get me out.” That’s exactly when I start hunting for mean‑reversion plays.
On the 4H chart we just bounced off a chunky demand block around 76–77k, with a clear volume spike on the low and RSI crawling out of oversold. Price is now camping under the first supply zone near 79.5–80k, right where the last dump accelerated. That combo looks like a classic relief‑rally setup, so I’m leaning short‑term long, aiming back into the 81–82.5k high‑volume area.
My plan: I want a small dip toward 77.5–78k to join buyers, with invalidation under 76k. Base case – squeeze into 81–82.5k, maybe even a wick toward 83.5k, where I’d start scaling out. If 76k breaks on strong volume, I drop the long idea and look for the next flush into 74–75k support. I might be wrong, but fading a freshly washed‑out Bitcoin has rarely aged well. ✅ Gold's "dead cat bounce" or bottom? Critical test at $5,150!Gold is attempting a recovery after scooping up stop losses near $4,400, but don't get too comfortable. This looks like a classic Dead Cat Bounce pattern.
In this video, we analyse whether this rebound is a genuine bottom or just a technical correction before the next leg lower.
Context
We dissect the volatility driven by the "Buy America" trade pause and the market's reaction to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. With margin hikes from the CME adding pressure, the technicals are now the primary guide.
Key topics:
Fundamentals : Why traders took profits on the dollar surge and how the market is digesting new Fed leadership risks.
Daily chart:
RSI reset : Momentum has reset to neutral, with hidden bullish divergence at the lows.
The "Dead Cat" zone : The rally has cleared the 38.2% Fib and is heading towards the 50% retracement near $5,000.
Invalidation level : A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci ($5,150) significantly reduces the chance of a Dead Cat Bounce and could signal a sideways consolidation or Triangle pattern. Weekly & 4-Hour structure :
Weekly channel : Price is reacting to the median line of the long-term channel. A rejection here keeps the bearish double-bottom scenario in play.
Elliott Wave scenarios : We explore two paths—a leading diagonal (wedge) that corrects before rallying, or a more impulsive bullish breakout if resistance fails.
Trade plan:
Bearish case : Rejection at $5,000 leads to a retest of $4,400.
Bullish case : A break above $5,150 opens the door to $5,350 and potentially new highs.
Key support : Watch $4,800 as the critical short-term floor.
Is this a trap or a reversal? Let us know in the comments!
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S&P500 crashes! Due relief rally or further pain?Nvidia delivered impressive earnings, but the stock reversed and closed nearly 3% lower, triggering heavy selling across tech and risk assets as odds for a December rate cut have collapsed to just 34%, with policy uncertainty amplified by the cancelled October NFP report. Despite a strong market and rising unemployment in September's NFP report, traders remained defensive and fuelled the declines.
Key drivers:
Nvidia beat earnings, but post-report selling intensified sector losses.
The Fed’s odds for a December rate cut have dropped to 34%, amplifying caution.
The abrupt cancellation of the October NFP means the market lacks fresh labour data, fuelling defensive positioning.
S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin broke major supports, confirming risk-off conditions.
Right now, the S&P 500 has broken below channel support near 6,600 and failed to climb back in. If prices stay below this threshold, expect another sharp move lower targeting 6,500 and possibly 6,350. There’s potential for upside, given momentum divergence on the RSI 4-hour chart. If we see a short-term bounce and a return to the channel, a move toward 6,682 is possible, which sets up a tactical short opportunity.
Trade idea:
Entry: Midpoint of 23.6/38.2 Fibonacci (6,655–6,682 area)
Stop-loss: Above 61.8% Fib (6,775)
Take Profits: TP1 6,500 (recent low/support), TP2 6,440 (major support), TP3 trail stop to 6,170 (long-term support)
Risk-off drivers are in control. Earnings reversals, Fed uncertainty, and cancelled NFP data are fuelling this price action. Technically, it comes down to whether we see a return inside the channel for a relief bounce or a sharp continuation downward.
Watch your levels, remain nimble, and let fundamentals and technicals, not emotions, guide your trade.
Let me know your setups in the comments, and follow for more high-action technical and macro trade ideas.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. 
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AMD Offers Way to Play the Relief Rally in US EquitiesPrice action in broader US equities—the S&P 500 SP:SPX and the Nasdaq NASDAQ:NDX in particular—has been tricky over the past few months since the October 2022 lows. SPX for example rallied off the 2022 lows into early December 2022 and it staged a false breakout above the bear market's most predictable trendline, the down trendline from all-time highs. The December 13, 2022, FOMC killed that rally, and and price fell back, rapidly retracing the prior rally's gains. Next, price rallied hard again in January 2023 into early February 2023. Price broke above the December 2022 highs in both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 but failed back below that breakout point. This typically would be a bearish signal, and it was—after showing choppy stalling action between 4100 and 4200, SPX's price fell further for nearly the entire month of February 2023. Now, price seems to have found a low and is rallying once again. This does not mean the bear market is over, and this has been analyzed and explained in prior SPX posts .
AMD may be a good way to play the relief rally in US stocks. AMD has been forming a series of higher highs and higher lows since its low on October 13, 2022, which coincided with SPX and NDX's 2022 lows as well.
AMD has shown extraordinary strength despite an ugly macro environment. It rallied 62.98% from October 13, 2022 lows to February 2, 2023 highs. Setting aside the multitude of macro reasons to be bearish (including the ever increasing Fed Funds rate expectations and market-pricing of terminal rates), AMD's price action shows the potential for short-term or intermediate-term upside before weakness strikes equities again at some point. Yes, many reasons exist to be bearish, and SquishTrade is certainly not calling for new all-time highs or a new primary uptrend. Instead, this presents a swing trade opportunity.
AMD faces major technical resistance at around $90 and $100, which is shown by teal-blue rectangles on the Primary Chart (above). Fibonacci resistance also shows confluence with these supply zones on the higher timeframe view.
AMD also formed a trading range for this current consolidation starting mid-February 2023. Today, it broke above the range. Sometimes, breakouts are followed by retests, but the strength shown today across the equity space makes it unclear whether a retest may occur. Use risk management and try not to chase especially with imprudent sizing. This will be important to hold into the close.
Supplementary Chart A: Breakout of Trading Range
The Primary Chart at the top of this post also reveals that AMD broke above a key Fibonacci level today at $80.89. This will be important to hold into the close as well for the bullish view. Just overhead lies the VWAP from the prior swing high in early February 2023. Today, this anchored VWAP lies at $82.03. Be mindful of how price responds to that level. Price could pause and consolidate at that level, or also at the .618 retracement levels.
Price also has formed a bull flag. This does not guarantee a breakout, but it tends to support a bullish case as a consolidation pattern. This is shown on Supplementary Chart A.
Here are the remaining price targets based on Fibonacci and resistance / supply zones:
1. $82.00 (most conservative—VWAP from prior swing high shown on Primary Chart above)
2. $82.43-$83.97 (conservative)
3. $85.48-$89.00 (moderately aggressive)
4. $96.55 - $100.00 (aggressive)
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
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$SPY $SPX Analysis, Key levels, and Targets $SPY $SPX Analysis, Key levels, and Targets
WOW, what a face-ripper week so far…
5.82% in two days!! And nice volume today too…
I sold 386 calls against both my shares, and my Jan 350 calls… right now my calls are up 22.3%, I’d love to see spy at 384 by Friday…
Also remember that Friday at 3pm is consumer credit report... which will, in my opinion, be a good indicator or what we can expect in this earnings season which is quickly approaching...
We are right at the 4hr 35EMA. This could be a support or a resistance… and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slow rangebound day between the grey channel that I have surrounding the 35EMA, so between 373 and 380, while we see which direction she goes… personally I’m bullish… .and my target is still 386… I do have 384 labelled on the chart but that’s just because that’s where that intersection is with a bunch of MA’s… just going to be monitoring that area closely… From here I can see even to 390, maybe 392, but I think that would push the technicals pretty far so lets’ just see if we can get to 384 and then take it one target at a time…
Yup, I’m back and ramble-y as ever lol…
Hope y’all have a great dat trading tomorrow!! 💃🏻 
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If BTC breaks $24k, it's straight going to $30k Bitcoin needs to break $24k, and then we'll get a nice summer relief rally.
As I posted earlier, according to my analysis, bitcoin has set a bottom around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
To date, bitcoin has failed to break the $24k resistance point, although it has made several attempts to do so.
24k is an important point, as it is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the impulsive wave from July 2020 to April 2021.
If Bitcoin breaks this point, it is likely to surge towards the $30k mark, which is 0.382 Fibonacci.
Tonight it closes the week candle, if it succeeds and Bitcoin kicks off the week above this level, it is pretty bullish, and we are in for a fun summer.
On the weekly chart, we have almost a full MACD and RSI crossover, so that shows that bitcoin is ready to resume the bull market.
If it doesn't break the 24k mark, it will probably continue to fluctuate between 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci, or the 20k-24k range. This will give alts another chance to rise in btc value, as bitcoin has been losing dominance for several weeks.
So either way I expect a positive outcome for either bitcoin or alts which will rise in satoshi value.
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BTC Playbook: Relief Rally targets and possible BottomHey all!
It seems like my idea (posted 3 weeks ago) about a potential relief rally is coming to fruition (with a bit of a delay).
I'll keep this analysis quick and simple by giving you all the possible resistances and where I believe the bear market bottom is. Here we go:
Red lines:
The red lines are all my price targets for this relief rally.
I give emphasis on the 200W MA and the 50D MA area. If the price breaks the first, there's a chance we visit the second but I personally believe the probability of heading even higher (towards the 28800 area) is not as great.
If you're wondering why I picked these prices go back to the bull run and you will see those where areas of consolidation during previous upside. As I said tho, for me the most important levels are those around 200W MA and 50D MA.
Green lines:
Green lines are all tested supports. Ironically, all those levels were hiding in plain sight. All of them are levels from November 2020 (right before we broke 2017 ATH)
Those are levels you might considering buying, of course depending on the Price Action (context while visiting each level may vary, making each one a good buy or bad one. Use your brain)
Yellow lines:
Those are untested supports.
For context I've written the dates they come from so you can check why these prices are important.
There's high probability these yellow lines are the bear market bottom. If not then my eyes would target the 11800-12500 area as an extreme bear market bottom
(absolute lowest price I could ever imagine is 10800 and I think it's highly unlikely we'll see it)
Blue background "Zone" = Ranging zone. Not terrible buys but expect a lot of chopping
Green background "Zone" = Good buying opportunity zone. Very good prices to build some spot. Potentially that's also gonna be the bottom unless we go for the extreme scenario of sub 14k.
!!! INVALIDATION !!!
-- My Idea for a relief rally is invalidated if we get extended price action below 20.4k or daily close below 19.2k or weekly close below 19.6k !!!
Generally, I believe we have lee-way, thus, possible upside until either 13/7 when CPI comes out or 19/7 when earnings start to get published.
I am expecting bad earnings to be announced starting 19/7 and on.
On top of that we have FOMC meeting the 27/7 and GDP for Q2 coming out the 29/7 (which will confirm we're in a recession)
So whatever you do make sure to secure profits till 13/7 max 19/7
In short, upside for up to 2 weeks, then return into the inside week range (19600-21800) and eventually towards the actual bear market bottom.
This whole process might take a month or two, so, stay vigilant and be patient.
Good Luck! Long 
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