Dow Jones Week 12 Day Trading Gameplan Hourly Analysis
Looking at the week ahead on the hourly chart, the first thing I notice is that the hourly 21ema is now trending down and declining. The hourly 200sma looks to remain flat and a cross is set to happen later in the week.
I am looking for a pullback into the declining 21ema, whether it stalls right at it or pops above it by a little bit.
I see two spots on the downside where stops are located. One at March 5th and 11th at 38,900 and the second at February 21st at 38,800. Logically if it will take out the first then the second is just right there as well.
The average true range of a weekly movement is between 850-1000 points on the Dow.
Since the 5 minute 200 is the same as the hourly 21, I will be looking for sells under both.
I expect the 5 minute 200 to be choppy and price will go back and forth between it. I will sell any move above it and buy if extended below it. I will use the 200sma on the 5 minute as the mean to revert back to.
On the 15 minute chart, price has been trending down off of a declining 15 minute 21ema and has created a cross on Friday. Any move up to the flat 200 or a peak above will get sold into. Price will have to slice through it to the upside by a large amount in order to become more bullish
In summary, I will be only looking for shorts and will sell into any pullback higher unless I see a strong bull move higher to slice through that 15 minute 200sma. Since price is in a negative state as indicated by below the declining 21 and under a declining 200, I will be giving the benefit of the doubt to a down trend and only look to sell.
I am looking for a pullback into the declining 21ema, whether it stalls right at it or pops above it by a little bit.
I see two spots on the downside where stops are located. One at March 5th and 11th at 38,900 and the second at February 21st at 38,800. Logically if it will take out the first then the second is just right there as well.
The average true range of a weekly movement is between 850-1000 points on the Dow.
Since the 5 minute 200 is the same as the hourly 21, I will be looking for sells under both.
I expect the 5 minute 200 to be choppy and price will go back and forth between it. I will sell any move above it and buy if extended below it. I will use the 200sma on the 5 minute as the mean to revert back to.
On the 15 minute chart, price has been trending down off of a declining 15 minute 21ema and has created a cross on Friday. Any move up to the flat 200 or a peak above will get sold into. Price will have to slice through it to the upside by a large amount in order to become more bullish
In summary, I will be only looking for shorts and will sell into any pullback higher unless I see a strong bull move higher to slice through that 15 minute 200sma. Since price is in a negative state as indicated by below the declining 21 and under a declining 200, I will be giving the benefit of the doubt to a down trend and only look to sell.
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
The same sort of price action occurred back in June of 2021
Trade active:
Took one short based on
Bear Pin false break from High of Session
Hovering over the 5 min 200sma
Extended away from the 5 min 21ema
The 1 hour 21ema is declining
In a negative state
Bear Pin false break from High of Session
Hovering over the 5 min 200sma
Extended away from the 5 min 21ema
The 1 hour 21ema is declining
In a negative state
Trade closed manually:
Trade almost hit my 105 tick target but had to close it due to it being the End of the Day. I don't hold overnight. I was in this trade for 5 hours and 40 minutes and it didn't do a whole bunch. Got 75 ticks out of it.
Trade closed: target reached:
Took a long trade in the direction of the 21ema after yesterday's strength.
I refined my stop and target to be 50 tick stop and 90 tick target.
I entered with a limit order above the high of that red bar in the anticipation of a continuation higher
I refined my stop and target to be 50 tick stop and 90 tick target.
I entered with a limit order above the high of that red bar in the anticipation of a continuation higher
Comment:
Looks like I was wrong on the direction of this week. It seems to be bullish. Using range expansions and the top of the channel, the target seems to be 40,400
I have only taken two trades this week so far due to my full time job.
I have only taken two trades this week so far due to my full time job.