Kumowizard
Long

Corn - Is Bearish trend over? Reversal in focus now

CBOT:ZC1!   CORN FUTURES - ECBT
90 0 0
This chart is getting more interesting now. It's time to focus on corn!

Daily: Nice and perfect bearish trend since May-June, which during last 1month (!) end up in a sidaway consolidation. Price has been trading in a very thin range between 353-368. Until 9 candles ago, it was not clear which directionCorn may finally break out. By now we have a lot of early signals, that suggesttime for Bears may be over pretty soon!

All Ichimoku lines got flat: Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou A and B (Kumo lower and higher lines), and also Chikou Span hit price candles. Meanwhile we have a weak bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross, which is important for the Bears. (If I were still short, I would certanly close it all now). The Kumo is still far above the Price and really thick both prompt and in the future, so it is still very very early to talk about a strategic bullish reversal.
However the down tend line is just here at current Price. If Corn             moves above it, that will be a trend break and also a break above Kijun Sen. That move would likely force short covering and might end-up in a break of the tight range on the top side too, followed by an important confirmation of a bullish Chikou cross above candles.

ADX is down to 20-21, which also shows this bearish trend is completely out of steam.
MACD is still up, Slow Stoch is down, but in this tight range it can reverse to bullish quickly.

I have an initial bullish bias now, I think the probability of higher prices is really increasing! I do not like predictive analyses, I prefer following the Price action and the chart, but this time please let me have a call: My feeling is that if the break on top side happens, Price will quickly move into the Kumo, where possibly we'll see more volatile trading in between 370-400. What's later, that I do not know and won't predict. Of course if at some point it breaks above the Cloud, it will turn very bullish again, but this can take a few more months to happen in case.

Trade idea: Of course we can not know if the bullish break will happen. Still there is some possibility for a bearish continuation, or for some more attempts at least that bears try to push price below the range bottom. So for now we either try to buy this in small with larger nominal stop loss, and wait for the possible reversal signals to load more longs later, or maybe we start to buy Nov-Dec Call options, as volatility has dropped to extremely low level.

Note: This chart shows the Price for the continous, front maturity contract. I prefer trading the December Futures already, which is higher by abt             9 USD. Sept Futures will expire on 12/Sept.
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