timwest
Long

Corn ZC1! Back to the base pattern, oversold, plenty of upside

CBOT:ZC1!   Corn Futures
482 17 9
Corn             looks like an oversold, buy candidate here. Corn             was breaking out of its base earlier this year and formed a beautiful technical pattern that I caught using the symbol CORN             ( Teucrium Corn Fund             ). Corn             made all of the news headlines in May when forecasts for drought were everywhere and the price had already run up 10%. Granted, corn             has been a lot higher in recent years, but when a market can't push higher on cataclysmic forecasts, then it's time to get out.

Well, now we are back to the base and I don't hear many bulls or fear-mongers trumpeting about corn             anymore. I like that it is oversold and near key support labeled with the green base support box.

Use a stop beyond the standard deviation bands because corn             is whippy, especially at the turns. Use options to avoid getting your stop tripped right at the edges of the market bottom.

Cheers. Tim ZC1!             441'6 last UPside 489. Downside 423'0.
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Indeed corn has been on a long downtrend. I missed your last advice on it and i might just watch out for this one. One request though - as there are different types of traders on this site, it will be great if you could segment the comments under the charts in a way for swing traders/day traders, those who handle options/leverage, and for those who are just trading stocks/long term. With your respect on the website i am sure you are followed by many, and although i hope all of them are smart enough not to blindly follow your advice, we all are all ears on your opinion :)
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Thanks 2use - I appreciate your feedback. I wish I could do what you are asking for. I could possibly set up a Google Docs page and it would show all of the positions and the stops and targets, capital used, estimated time frames, etc. I have seen others do this for a small fee each month too. This way, it would be nice to show how all of the ideas fit into a portfolio. Clearly, each person has a different time frame and risk tolerance and needs to know.

As for positions now, I do lay out that I use 3 average true ranges on each trade at a maximum. If you put 0.5% of your portfolio at risk in each idea and use a maximum of 10% max loss in a month, then you can have 20 ideas on at once. That is a lot of ideas to manage. If you have $50,000, then each trade at max would lose 0.5% of $50,000 or $250. If a stock has a 1 point average range, then you'd lose $250 if it moved 3 points against you to the stop loss, so you'd buy/short 83 shares for that position.
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I hate to be judgemental, but why is this featured? I mean there are some many "oversold" instruments you can buy. Being oversold means nothing and I bet if corn really rallies it will probably be right after it takes out your SL. Its still in a down-trend after all.
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timwest PRO VladimirGas
I do like that ZC1! had a tighter range yesterday compared to the day before. What is also interesting is that the wide-ranging, bearish-engulfing pattern didn't have any meaningful follow through into yesterday's session and today it is quieter still, signaling a loss of downside momentum and forcing a potential double-bottom. One way to get in is to wait for a move up from the close of greater than the previous day's range as this signals strong buying. Thanks for asking for more info.
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I like this idea, and think the same way. In 30.06 will be report of USDA. So, will see on monday what way takes corn.
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timwest PRO VladimirGas
Also: Did you read the comments under the chart?

"Corn looks like an oversold, buy candidate here. Corn was breaking out of its base earlier this year and formed a beautiful technical pattern that I caught using the symbol CORN (Teucrium Corn Fund). Corn made all of the news headlines in May when forecasts for drought were everywhere and the price had already run up 10%. Granted, corn has been a lot higher in recent years, but when a market can't push higher on cataclysmic forecasts, then it's time to get out.

Well, now we are back to the base and I don't hear many bulls or fear-mongers trumpeting about corn anymore. I like that it is oversold and near key support labeled with the green base support box.

Use a stop beyond the standard deviation bands because corn is whippy, especially at the turns. Use options to avoid getting your stop tripped right at the edges of the market bottom.

Cheers. Tim ZC1! 441'6 last UPside 489. Downside 423'0."
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Yes I did :) I also checked your last idea on corn from about three months ago to get a better idea of the support-base level you mentioned. However your reply gives a better insight than the comment under the chart
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Hello Tim, Could tell me you think is a good entry point and stop loss for corn? I am thinking 420 with a stop loss at 400; target profit at 430.

Thanks
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nice one TIm!
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monthly chart with support
snapshot
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Thanks it is very helpful to see more.
I am sad, thet all all CBOT instruments don't work from yestarday :( May be you now why?
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2use LEONES
yes, monthly does look quite nice.
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Yes, Corn is a long way from its highs and settling back towards the bottom ranges on the monthly chart. Nice chart.
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Bad news. USDA report falls the market (
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2use alexeyhoroshunvk
I was almost publishing an idea and wham -3%, what are the odds
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wow that is a big drop, lets' see the close...
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All are alive? USDA report is the most importent in agricultural products. So yesterdey report said thet prducing of corn is rise this year they expected.I can say more all agricultural products fall yesterday. I waching for agricultural more then 2 years. After each USDA report market fall down. (( But I think, thet in few day market begin to rise.
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