timwest
Long

December Corn trying to bottom for these 5 reasons

CBOT:ZCZ2015   CORN FUTURES - ECBT
357 4 7
The 3 trend lines that you can use to draw a downtrend line from the summer's highs across the last rally high are breaking today:
1. Using the closes -
2. Using the highs -
3. Using the "highest lows" - (an internal trend line )
4. CCI is turning back up from below -100 (11-day CCI ) -
5. RgMov, my proprietary trendiness indicator that usually leads price, didn't make a new low with price, so it is indicating some internal strength here for Corn             .

Two of the big reasons for the drop in corn             , from my perspective, was that corn             production had a rough start and then it picked up and simultaneously commercial hedgers were selling corn futures             and put themselves heavily short the market right at the highs and have taken the market down since then. I don't know what will happen to corn             production, nor do I know what the commercial hedgers are going to do with their positions, so I can only speculate on what the market is telling me using technical analysis . With that in mind, I like my odds here. I don't have a lot of risk, but I have a lot of upside. In that same vein, if I have a huge upside potential to downside risk, then I know my odds aren't going to be very high of a winning trade. Why? Because that's how markets work. You don't get free money handed to you from the market, but if you do, be very thankful and take it.

Regards,

Tim 9:48AM EST
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"if I have a huge upside potential to downside risk, then I know my odds aren't going to be very high of a winning trade." - very interesting comment. I see a lot of top traders posts about high R:R, but usually trends reverses at half-way to TP.
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I am sorry Tim but this chart doesn't seem as convincing as this report: http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/cotd/090815/corn-traders-are-bracing-themselves-more-selling-dba-corn-adm.aspx?partner=YahooSA
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my humble monitor shows still alot of risk to fall further, if price below 365'4

snapshot
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Looks we're getting a BO, and I like the 'almost double bottom' preceding the pending BO. Thanks a lot, Sir. Im glad I can learn from you always.
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