ZCASH: Redemption in 2021?

As the week of the first halving is coming to a close, ZEC is trying to break the 75 USD level. I'm personally not in the business of spotting H&S patterns or channels on the 4HR or 1HR chart, so let's zoom out a bit. Since the January '18 high, Zcash has been in a steady decline. The overall bear market combined with high inflation levels caused ZEC to see one of the biggest declines from ATH among midcap alts, from about 800$ to a low of 18$ in March this year. Since then it has recovered along with the overall market. Increased BTC dominance has further devastated the zecbtc pair to new lows.

My view is that it will take some time for the reduced emission to translate into higher prices (33% to 12.5% inflation post halving). Considering the production cost, price will have to gravitate towards 100$. If the overall market conditions remain favourable, I think ZEC might be set up for a supply shock where price can move toward the green channel or even significantly higher in 2021.

Trade active: This last weekly close is indicating strong support above the 50$ level.

Looking at ZECBTC, the bottomless pair seems like it may hav found a local bottom (for now). This may have been a capitulation moment sparked by the recent SEC related FUD, or just post-halving volatility. I would like to move into the new year a bit higher, but patience is the name of the game with this one.