- The move is similar to 10 year, but due to curve steepening 5 year Note suffered a bit less.
- The big trend and Ichimoku setup is absolutely bearish, BUT:
- Price has dropped far far below equilibrium of appr. 120, marked by Senkou B and Kijun.
- Price reached a huge major support/resistance line yesterday, which has stopped bears two times precisely in last two years. I think it will break down eventually... just not now.
- Market is extremely oversold short term. It was a real blood bath in US bonds since Trump got elected. Oversold conditions are reflected in MACD and EWO extreme low prints.
- haDelta and DM_Oscillator corrected higher, but still below zero.
- MACD histogram has been ticking higher: market should pull back at some point.
If there is a level to take some profit on shorts, probably this is.
As wise gentlemen @Charityhedge mentioned too, it is a very good risk/reward level to even try a small bottom fishing, with stop below 118 on close, initial tgt to 119.
However, the main focus will remain to catch the trend on spikes to bearish supports.
Please also take note of the extremely elevated bond market volatility: ATR is just over the roof. Be smart, do position sizing with respect to volatility. If you don't understand what it means, stop trading immediately, just go read and learn everything about risk management.
- The big trend and Ichimoku setup is absolutely bearish, BUT:
- Price has dropped far far below equilibrium of appr. 120, marked by Senkou B and Kijun.
- Price reached a huge major support/resistance line yesterday, which has stopped bears two times precisely in last two years. I think it will break down eventually... just not now.
- Market is extremely oversold short term. It was a real blood bath in US bonds since Trump got elected. Oversold conditions are reflected in MACD and EWO extreme low prints.
- haDelta and DM_Oscillator corrected higher, but still below zero.
- MACD histogram has been ticking higher: market should pull back at some point.
If there is a level to take some profit on shorts, probably this is.
As wise gentlemen @Charityhedge mentioned too, it is a very good risk/reward level to even try a small bottom fishing, with stop below 118 on close, initial tgt to 119.
However, the main focus will remain to catch the trend on spikes to bearish supports.
Please also take note of the extremely elevated bond market volatility: ATR is just over the roof. Be smart, do position sizing with respect to volatility. If you don't understand what it means, stop trading immediately, just go read and learn everything about risk management.