johan.gradin

Recoupling in process?

95 5 5
This is TNX             (Yields) And the 30y/10y ratio (the idea that higher dated bonds should reflect higher yields) This range the markets have been has coincided with the de-coupling from this Ratio and Yields on 10y US bonds ( TNX             ). Why this re-coupling? might be inportant, is because it leaves the door open for markets to start matching fundementals and vice versa. should reflect back into FX with time.
johan.gradin
2 years ago
So if the ratio starts diverging from 10y yields, i.e 30y/10Y goes sidways while Yields drop. Look out, a recession might be coming and stocks could sell off.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
snapshot
+1 Reply
johan.gradin jangseohee
2 years ago
Maybe so, although i think the magnitude of the decline is difficult to asses. How sensitive are US stocks to duration? Less than EU stocks for sure, and Latam stocks. You should update this as it comes closer too :)
+1 Reply
jangseohee johan.gradin
2 years ago
remind me if i forget ^_^
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johan.gradin jangseohee
2 years ago
;)
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