🌱 Soybeans Going Into Holiday Mode (GrainStats)

CBOT:ZSF2024   Soybean Futures (Jan 2024)
Fundamental Data👇

Soybean Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌱
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░ 91%

Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎

2,085,419 Metric Tons
⬇️ 35,012 Metric Tons week vs. last week
⬇️ 500,809 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year

Export Sales🗺️

24,241,071 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
⬇️ 8,056,733 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year 🤯

Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊

Bullish 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 46%
Neutral 🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 19%
Bearish 🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 29%

Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕

🟢 *Huge* export sales this week purchased by China
🟢 US Barge freight has gone down 6 weeks in a row from 1,326% of tariff to 467% of tariff
🔴 CONAB raised Brazil's forecast for Soybean output to 162.42 million metric tons (even in light of the problems with the planting of the crop)
🔴 USDA raised yield forecasts for US crop by 3/10 of a bushel and increased carryout by 25 million bushels
🔴 Panama Canal water level has caused congestion and increased shipping costs as ships "jump the line" to pass through the canal. (end result = increased shipping costs)

Funds have reversed their net short position and are long over 23 thousand contracts. (as of 10/31)

Soybean Technicals 💹

Soybeans broke the down trend this week, but failed to follow through. Regardless, the price action actually has set a technical level to watch to the upside at @ 13.84, which if broken, could warrant a test of 14.20.

Other than that, we do have a trend forming to the upside, the only issue is for new entrants is that we're right in the middle of the range and there is plenty of choppiness to go around. That being said, we advise caution until a clearer picture is known for position taking.

What we're watching is continued buying potential from China for the next several weeks and any indication that Brazil's production estimates are to reverse. It is also notable to pay close attention to the elections in Argentina where the opposition party would "Dollarize" the economy, which in turn could lead to Argentine farmers being more relaxed with marketing decisions knowing they would revive dollars instead of the hyperinflated Argentine Peso.

Watch the following levels for now👇
🟢 Upside Targets: 13.73, 13.84, 14.00
🔴 Downside Targets: 13.36, 13.10, 12.97

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