Soybeans
News
• U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data on Friday showed U.S. soybean crush fell to an 11-month low in August, below almost all trade estimates. Weak crushing demand comes as U.S. exports struggle to compete with record Brazilian shipments.
• Last week’s USDA report showed a national average soybean yield of 50.1 bushels per acre, below the 50.9 in last month’s report but within the range of estimates. The month over month decline in yield dropped overall production to 4.146 billion bushels.
Commitment of Traders
Friday’s weekly commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of 8,995 futures/options contracts through September 12th. This was the second straight week of a shrinking net long position, which now stands at 73,815 contracts. Will long liquidation continue to be a trend as harvest picks up and supply grows? TBD.
Volatility
CME Group’s soybean CVOL index declined to its lowest levels since the spring, indicating a lack of uncertainty in the markets. The decline in volatility may make options more appealing for traders and/or hedgers to either manage risk or take a position in the markets.
Technicals (November)
Soybean futures broke below trendline support following the September USDA report. That technical failure has led to additional weakness since, with prices breaking below the 200-day moving average for the first time in a month. Previous support will now act as resistance, we see that as 1330-1332 1/2. The next downside objective for the Bears would be 1300-1304. Seasonality typically favors the Bear camp this time of year, when looking at the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 1350-1355***, 1373-1381***
Pivot: 1330-1332 ½
Support: 1300-1304****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
News
• U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data on Friday showed U.S. soybean crush fell to an 11-month low in August, below almost all trade estimates. Weak crushing demand comes as U.S. exports struggle to compete with record Brazilian shipments.
• Last week’s USDA report showed a national average soybean yield of 50.1 bushels per acre, below the 50.9 in last month’s report but within the range of estimates. The month over month decline in yield dropped overall production to 4.146 billion bushels.
Commitment of Traders
Friday’s weekly commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of 8,995 futures/options contracts through September 12th. This was the second straight week of a shrinking net long position, which now stands at 73,815 contracts. Will long liquidation continue to be a trend as harvest picks up and supply grows? TBD.
Volatility
CME Group’s soybean CVOL index declined to its lowest levels since the spring, indicating a lack of uncertainty in the markets. The decline in volatility may make options more appealing for traders and/or hedgers to either manage risk or take a position in the markets.
Technicals (November)
Soybean futures broke below trendline support following the September USDA report. That technical failure has led to additional weakness since, with prices breaking below the 200-day moving average for the first time in a month. Previous support will now act as resistance, we see that as 1330-1332 1/2. The next downside objective for the Bears would be 1300-1304. Seasonality typically favors the Bear camp this time of year, when looking at the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 1350-1355***, 1373-1381***
Pivot: 1330-1332 ½
Support: 1300-1304****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.