easing

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D, Short , 3 months ago
GBPJPY: SELL GBPJPY: RISK-OFF SHIFT COMING? LOWER BOE MONPOL EQUILIBRIUM
387 4 15
GBPJPY, D Short
SELL GBPJPY: RISK-OFF SHIFT COMING? LOWER BOE MONPOL EQUILIBRIUM
GBPJPY: 1. Given Fed Yellen's "hawkish" market response and GBPUSD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD shorts TPd on the rally lower today cleared (FX risk book clear too), im looking to add some safe haven assets to my portfolio. 2. Looking at GBPJPY and GBP structures on the whole, there has been alot of sterling longs in the ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading NZDUSD, W, Long , 4 months ago
NZDUSD: NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: RBNZ GOV WHEELER SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
200 1 12
NZDUSD, W Long
NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: RBNZ GOV WHEELER SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
Governor of the RBNZ Wheeler offered little bearish pressure on kiwi, refusing to go into any intervention talk and failing to say what the bank will actually use to tame this deflationaire NZD they are experiencing at the moment - with the comments below in mind imo this leaves on direction for Kiwi (short of some ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading NZDUSD, D, 4 months ago
NZDUSD: NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS
258 0 11
NZDUSD, D
NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS
Relatively poor delivery from the RBNZ, by the looks of the whipsaw the market wanted/ expected 50bps based on the AUD differential and the RBA rate cut last week 50bps or some alt policy (e.g. QE) seemed like the smart move to make. From here Kiwi and Aussie longs look preferential as the macro environment shifts ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short , 4 months ago
GBPUSD: GBPUSD/ GBPJPY: BOE POLICY DECISION & CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
265 4 15
GBPUSD, D Short
GBPUSD/ GBPJPY: BOE POLICY DECISION & CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
BOE's policy decision and QIR was largely inline with expectations, perhaps even 10bn better than expected on the QE side - and was very forgiving with hints towards further interest easing, though the stubborn unwillingness to realise negative rates undermined this to some extent. GBPJPY and GBPUSD shorts traded ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short , 4 months ago
GBPUSD: SHORT GBPUSD/ GBPJPY: BOE EXPECTATIONS & FORECAST - FADE RALLIES
675 3 23
GBPUSD, D Short
SHORT GBPUSD/ GBPJPY: BOE EXPECTATIONS & FORECAST - FADE RALLIES
imo sterling strength/ USD weakness has opened up a great opp to get short vs the USD. Also, technically £YEN looks like it has some 400pips of downside in it available if the BOE do ease and weaken the currency (130.5). Shorting GBP$ at 1.33 opens up 250pips of easy downside profit assume the BOE deliver 25bps and ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading AUDUSD, D, Short , 4 months ago
AUDUSD: SHORT AUDUSD: RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION - CUT 25BPS TO 1.50%
335 12 15
AUDUSD, D Short
SHORT AUDUSD: RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION - CUT 25BPS TO 1.50%
RBA Cut the Cash rate to 1.50% by 25bps, the market has had a very subdued reaction though, barely falling 30pips from market. I still think there should be more downside here and into the mid/low 74xx before the full fade comes in - so luckily room for retails to get in, looks like the algos were having a day off ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURCHF, 120, Long , 4 months ago
EURCHF: LONG EURCHF: POSSIBLE SNB INTERVENTION AT THE 1.08 HANDLE
163 7 11
EURCHF, 120 Long
LONG EURCHF: POSSIBLE SNB INTERVENTION AT THE 1.08 HANDLE
Long EURCHF: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan says FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher/ Rate cut possible another 50bps. 2. Plus ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, D, Long , 4 months ago
DXY: BUY USD DIPS VS GBP/ NZD: DOVISH FED W. DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
125 5 8
DXY, D Long
BUY USD DIPS VS GBP/ NZD: DOVISH FED W. DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
Fed Dudley was speaking At A joint New York Fed, Indonesian Central Bank Seminar On Sunday evening when he left a mixed impression for the markets to digest - saying "it is premature to rule out an interest-rate increase this year" but then on the contrary saying "Raising Rates Prematurely Would Be Riskier Than ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading SPX, D, Short , 4 months ago
SPX: SPX: BOJ MISS = BULL RUN END +2% + 2016 SAFE HAVEN TREND RESUMES
593 6 17
SPX, D Short
SPX: BOJ MISS = BULL RUN END +2% + 2016 SAFE HAVEN TREND RESUMES
End of the bull run Global Equity Indexes: 1. SPX/ Global Equity indexes in the past 2/3wks saw a post-brexit central bank easing induced rally, as many CB released dovish statements following the vote which spurred investor confidence in fresh easing. - IMO much of the bull run was based on BOJ easing hopes, ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D, Short , 4 months ago
GBPJPY: GBPJPY: BOJ MISS; BOE HIT? MORE SELLING ON THE HORIZON
431 11 12
GBPJPY, D Short
GBPJPY: BOJ MISS; BOE HIT? MORE SELLING ON THE HORIZON
BOJ Miss: 1. BOJ deliver one of the biggest misses in history (vs expectations/ pressure) - only increasing ETF purchases and dollar funding by apprx $60bn annual in total vs 10-20bps of Depo and LSP cuts + 5-20trn in QE increase + ETF increase. *See attached post for in-depth detail on the BOJ situation and ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Short , 4 months ago
USDJPY: USDJPY - BOJ MISS; FISCAL STIM PACKAGE & TRADING YEN FROM HERE
723 14 20
USDJPY, D Short
USDJPY - BOJ MISS; FISCAL STIM PACKAGE & TRADING YEN FROM HERE
BOJ - 3trn increase in annual ETF Purchases + $24bn increase in USD funding for banks 1. The BOJ on Friday delivered a shockingly poor package, imo they changed the snallest part of their current QQE programme. 2. What was interesting though was the markets reaction - immediately after the decision $Yen spiked ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, 4 months ago
USDJPY: USDJPY/ GBPJPY: BUY $YEN IF DATA MISSES; SELL £YEN IF DATA HITS
361 3 13
USDJPY, D
USDJPY/ GBPJPY: BUY $YEN IF DATA MISSES; SELL £YEN IF DATA HITS
The Risky BOJ front run trade using CPI inferences - I find it very interesting that the BOJ is releasing ALL of its key economic data (minus GDP) before making the easing decision, especially as we have already had CPI data this month so we will have an 2 CPI releases in one month which ive never seen happen ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, 4 months ago
GBPUSD: GBPUSD: STERLING STRENGTH MYTH? ARITCLE 50 ODDS - 50% NOT HAPPEN
337 5 13
GBPUSD, D
GBPUSD: STERLING STRENGTH MYTH? ARITCLE 50 ODDS - 50% NOT HAPPEN
Mysterious sterling strength: 1. Sterling has managed to par losses and actually rise in past days despite a number of heavily weighted factors increasing GBP downside pressure e.g. MPC M. Weale switching to the doves, PMI/ Business Optimism 8yr lows, Sterling rates markets consistently pricing >25bps of cuts to ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Long , 4 months ago
USDJPY: LONG USDJPY: ANOTHER BOJ OUTPERFORM CASE - 28TRN GOVT STIMULUS
402 11 11
USDJPY, D Long
LONG USDJPY: ANOTHER BOJ OUTPERFORM CASE - 28TRN GOVT STIMULUS
Another argument for the BOJ outperform case - Post BOJ Buy $Yen @MRKT 111tp: 1. We know BOJ and JPY Govt Abe/ Aso have had many meetings post-brexit and as it follows the JPY Govt have announced today that they will deliver a fiscal stimulus package of 28trn - which was to the very right of the curve (10-30 was ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading AUDUSD, D, Short , 4 months ago
AUDUSD: SHORT AUDUSD: EYEING CPI PRINT - SELL 1.0%YOY, 0.3%Q; RBA EASING
183 0 8
AUDUSD, D Short
SHORT AUDUSD: EYEING CPI PRINT - SELL 1.0%YOY, 0.3%Q; RBA EASING
AM 2:30GMT Ausssie Inflation prints are released these are key for determining their August Policy Decision 1. IMO a 1.0%yoy CPI print shows a further 0.3% contraction in their yearly CPI, this should be sufficient to push the RBA to cutting their OCR by 25bps, similarly a 0.3%qoq CPI will be needed in conjunction ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, 4 months ago
USDJPY: USDJPY: BOJ - FINAL THOUGHTS; FUNDAMENTAL/ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
549 6 15
USDJPY, D
USDJPY: BOJ - FINAL THOUGHTS; FUNDAMENTAL/ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
At market price: 1. At 104 $yen offers an attractive buy and sell side - from the position of not knowing what the BOJ will do.. - I dont think that this pull-back to 104 is a material shift in risk-sentiment, rather i think this is a technical sell-off where the 107 pivot was hit (as highlighted) at which point ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D, 4 months ago
GBPJPY: BOJ EXPECTATIONS: EXCEED/ HIT - LONG USDJPY; MISS - SHORT GBPJPY
346 11 8
GBPJPY, D
BOJ EXPECTATIONS: EXCEED/ HIT - LONG USDJPY; MISS - SHORT GBPJPY
BOJ Miss - Sell GBPJPY @Market price; 129tp1 - up to 800pips. 1. A BOJ miss can be considered as delivering the median expectations e.g. 10bps cut to the depo (-0.2%), 10bps cut to the LSP (-0.1%), Yen10trn increase in monthly JGB purchases & 50% Increase in Annual ETF purchases e.g. 3.3trn-5trn. Fiscal Stimulus ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURCHF, D, Long , 4 months ago
EURCHF: EURCHF: SNB JORDAN - EYE & BUY 1.05/8, 80% SEPT CUT, STRONG CHF
192 0 8
EURCHF, D Long
EURCHF: SNB JORDAN - EYE & BUY 1.05/8, 80% SEPT CUT, STRONG CHF
SNB President T. Jordan comment highlights: - If Needed, Can Cut Rates Further - 50bps to 1.25% possible until negative rates turn less effective - €˜Big Concern€™ Over Significantly Overvalued CHF in 2016 risk-off dominated year - CHF 3m Libor prices 80% chance of a 25bps cut (-0.75 to -1.00%) within 3 months ...
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