Elliott Waves

Elliott Wave theory is one of the most popular and effective approaches to systematic trading.

Elliott Wave Drawing Tools
Elliott Wave drawing tools are for creating wave counts. They are located on the top toolbar and include five types of tools for drawing different types of waves.
USDCAD, D Long
0 27
Long USD/CAD for 3 Wave at least
CL1!, 120 Long
0 38
On the chart above for Light-Crude-Oil-Futures I highlighted "ever so slight" buy signals (Fractals) on a two hour chart. This is for short-term traders.
The Alligator: How it works. The Alligator is a collection of three moving averages , which are called the Lips, the Teeth and the Jaw and colored blue, golden, and black.
The idea of the trading strategy is to catch those trending movements that occur in zig-zag fashion for less than a week, sometime just hours. Such moments can be identified by looking at the Alligator Lines. Usually, before a trading move happens, the price moves in a tight range and intertwines with the Alligator Lines. This is called a "sleeping alligator" because it is so quiet. Then it explodes into a trading move. The price starts moving away from the Alligator, and the Alligator Lines are opening. This phase is dubbed the "hungry alligator" because it looks like an alligator wakes up from sleep and opens its mouth (distance between the lines) to chase the little fish (price bar) for breakfast.
The Three Wise Men-Now onto the entry rules. In order to understand them, you must have the following indicators on your charts: 1. Alligator (as described above). This is wise man number one. 2. Awesome Oscillator (phase energy, lower indicator above the chart). This is wise man number two. 3. Fractals (up and down arrows). This is the third wise man.
Awesome Oscillator Definition and Facts:
1. The difference between a 5-period and 34-period median price moving average , which is actually the 5-34 MACD histogram.(Simple moving average better than EMA )
2. Bars that are higher than the previous one are painted green, otherwise painted red.
Entry and Exit (long):
1. Ideally it is preceded by a bullish divergence bar, or a-morningstar candlestick or else must be preceded by a down fractal.
2. Buy when the AO (phase energy bars) shows three consecutive green bars.
3. Stop begins at the bottom the bullish divergence bar or down fractal, then gradually trail up to the latest 3-5 bars low, or when a bearish divergence bar appears.
4. Opposite for short entry.
Comments: The AO is more than just a provider of entry signals. The best use of it is to point out divergence in a trend. The divergence is the difference between price and momentum direction. For example, when a trend is showing higher highs, but the bars in the AO have lower highs, this is a case of divergence, and usually an end of trend will follow soon.
The Third Wise Man: The Fractal. 1. An up fractal is a high of a bar preceded by 2 lower highs and followed by 2 lower highs. 2. Signal of an up fractal is only valid if it is above the Alligator lines. 3. Vice versa for a down fractal.
Entry and Exit (long): 1. Buy on breakout of a valid up fractal (above Alligator).
2. Stop begins at the bottom of the bullish divergence bar or down fractal, then gradually trail up to the latest 3-5 bars low, or when a bearish divergence bar appears. 3. Opposite for short entry.
Comments: The fractal is actually a breakout strategy on previous high or low. According to Bill Williams, each fractal is an end of an Elliot Wave , and a breakthrough of each fractal marks a new impulsive wave, so that we are able to trade that wave even without knowing what wave we are in.
Unfortunately - I am running out of room for this entry. On the chart above for-Light-Crude, the MEST-positives are an up Fractal, FOUR green up bars for phase energy (AO),a 2nd buy Fractal, and the alligator is feeding slightly in the uptrend. Other trading positives, the Ichimoku Cloud is rising and momentum is rising. My advice, pay attention to-MEST (momentum, energy, space, time). The object is ALWAYS the following five words: MOVE WHEN THE MARKET MOVES. If you do, over time, your wins will be bigger, your losses smaller (because you sell when the Fractals and phase energy tells you).
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
USDCHF, D Long
0 26
Now there are 3 ways this structure can develop and the result is same; long term buy setup.
But at the trading perspective, you have to have an appropriate strategy for all of them and you have to know your stop loss, target and when to enter...
EURUSD, 3D Short
1 222
I tend to believe the formation of the 1.5-year-long triangle is now complete and the next stop is parity with USD. As usual, the thrust should be fast and should be accompanied with a sell-off in SPX and Crude.
CL1!, D Neutral
14 806
OIL
Global news can say whatever you want . It is not physical oil . This are futures . and future's price is constituted by those who trade these futures - banks. There are 3 major traders in the market of oil - JPMorgan , Goldman Sachs, Citi, in their turn they are getting money from the Federal Reserve System . And the Federal Reserve System has only two targets - to keep holding dollar as a the world's reserve currency and to make it stronger. That why in the first quarter of 2017 the oil price will be 12
Continues rally
Elliott wave +fibonaci
Way to 12
GBPNZD, D Long
0 53
description on chart. Like if you agree.
BTCUSD, W Long
43 32620
Currently we have just finished a major market bull move (2-1200) and its subsequent bear move correction (1200-150). No new lows for 9 months. The bear market is over.

Now we are in a quiet, flat period of quiet. Quite similar to that of April 2012, not only in price action but more importantly in popular sentiment. Bubble fever is emotionally dead, people at Bitcoin meets and conferences no longer gush excitedly about financial success.

Fractal self-similarity shows that if this is indeed 2012 deja-vu, the future price path shall take us to $600 within 1 year (wave 1), $13000 within 2 years (wave 3) and possible wave 5 extensions after that.

Recall my previous Elliot Wave possibility of $120k.
NIFTY, 240 Neutral
0 159
As per my lost post i am expecting 8400 level on august month but nifty fell to 8500 and it consolidates through out this month.

As per my wave count August month top ended with C of 3rd wave. On September month i am expecting more sideways movements from Elliott wave and also ASTROLOGICAL prospective. Stay away from market upto SEP 22 - 2016 and then enter buy upto November 1st half.

As per my ASTROLOGICAL prediction NIFTY reach Historical top on NOVEMBER 2016. Due to some planetary effects around the globe all governments face lots of problems, Its affects the market also. That effect will continue upto second half of 2017, Second half of 2017 will be GOLDEN opportunity to participate in another bull run for another 2.5 years
XAGUSD, D Long
1 76
Altered my green count with a truncated wave (v) of 1 of (3). The green count remains a variation on the continuation of the white (1)-(2) count. Taking out the August and July highs should lead to an explosive rally to at least 23, but possibly into the 30's. I'll have refined targets for the green sub-structure once green wave 2 completion is confirmed.
Could tomorrow be a catalyst for the rally? Sure, anything's possible. Just recognize this set-up has been several months in the making and any 'news' tomorrow is incidental in my opinion.
A break down below 17.84 could clearly invalidate the white count, infringing into the price territory of wave 1 of (3). The green wave 2 can go a bit deeper, but I'd expect a turn very soon IF the heart of a 3rd is upon us.
A note about fibs. Tradingview.com only calculates fib extensions in arithmetic terms. It's a known limitation and one several members have commented on requesting an update, myself included. In fact, I'd be a "Pro" here if their Elliott Wave tools were slightly improved... Anyway, these lines represent log-based fib extension which had to be calculated separately and entered manually. Since it's labor intensive, I'll keep them to waves of intermediate degree and higher.
SPY, 2W Short
9 2625
In my last chart around 2 years ago entitled "SP500 BEARISH OUTLOOK - CLOSE TO FORMING GENERATIONAL TOP" (see link below), I suggested that a possible top could occur around 2000 - 2030 area which I believe is still within acceptable range for such long term analysis.

It appears to me that the likely topping pattern we are witnessing could be part of a very significant top formation, to qualify as "generational top". Based on the my interpretation of Elliottwave Principle, the cycle that began back in 1929, probably formed a major top of wave 3 in 2000, and all the intervening price action since 2000 till August 2011 low could be contracting triangle wave 4.

If this is correct, then we might have just seen wave 5 top on 19th May 2015 high. The choppy price action could just be an early development of major bearish cycle that could last several years with possible downside target retesting the 2009 low. Should this scenario play out then it could be very devastating and at the sometime offer us opportunities to benefit, if provided we are fully prepared to take advantage.

Summary:
1. Potential Rising wedge (ending diagonal) close to breaking down.
2. Have several Fib confluence,
3. Momentum divergence at several degrees.
4. May 2015 top lines up with time symmetry (see chart below).
5. Several sectors started topping from mid 2014 with the main Index grinding higher due to strength in ever reducing number of strong stock making up the S&P500

Conclusion:
If you wish to learn why I have come this conclusion then and what can assist you in getting fully prepared please register for a free webinar I am hosting on Saturday at the link - http://www.danv-charting.com/live-webinar.html

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
NIFTY, 60 Long
2 244
Happy Monday Friends !
Probably,few have Monday blues but we are the ones who wait for Monday...This particular post is kind-of educative analysis to determine overall view of the markets purely based on prediction from my experience.

Let's check our surfboards right away & get it ready to surf along Nifty waves...

Next resistance level for Nifty around 8800's to 8850's,lets keep a note of this zone will be used later in analysis.
The above chart has two types of Elliott wave counts (nothing complex, simple wave counting only). Wave Type-1 starts @ 8520's & Wave type-2 @ 8540's. In both wavecounts Nifty has completed Wave-2 and now moving along Wave-3 where it's kinda consolidating forming symmetrical triangle pattern. Now we need to look for wave 3 end, check the fib extension levels on Wave-1 for both type-1 & type-2, Fib extensions 1.618 of Wave-1(Type-1) & Fib extensions 2.0 & 2.24 of Wave-1(Type-2) ends up in our marked zone 8800-8850,so Wave-3 will end in this zone.

Wave-3 is biggest wave, so what if we get a chance to ride the wave ? Yes, we do have a chance with the symmetrical triangle which we have noticed earlier.Considering that an upper breakout happens in Nifty, we will ride the bulls up to our zone 8800. Now,please take a look at chart again what do we see ? Bearish Crab...coinciding with wave-4, lets remove our Bull shirts and dress up as Bear's till next support in Nifty which is 8700.Then back again to wave-5 upwards to 8900's. So here we are planning for all blooming rosy scenario of 500pts in Nifty.

If someother priceaction happens in Nifty other than our all rosy scenario, re-analyse the charts and enter based on confirmation from your tradeplan. Never enter on hope that as we did analysis,Nifty will follow our path.Everything goes well, we will pocket 500pts in next 20 trading days,probably around Sep 20's.With RBI Governor's appointment announced,if market takes it as positive we will get breakout from this triangle.

The crux is to enter Wave-3 of Triangle breakout, Wave-4 on Bearish Crab and Wave-5 on simple pullback system.There is another post I did on BankNifty based on Elliott's in-line with this Nifty analysis,check it out. I hope this post is really informative on how to do an analysis n confirm your entry points.

Hit Likes if you agree with the content/ideas...They keep me motivated to post more quality analysis...
Feel free to leave your comments/opinions...Thanks for your Support !
For specific stock analysis, follow Me @ : https://in.tradingview.com/u/InsiderB/
Happy Trading !!!
XAUUSD, 60 Neutral
11 2144
Some basic "guidelines" about Elliott Waves.

I hope that somehow help to understand how the market really moves.
This is an "update" to my previous published educational chart about Elliott Waves - link below

Safe trades;
EURUSD, 240 Neutral
4 2389
The minutes for the FOMC meeting, released yesterday, resulted in the dollar weakening across the board. The Fed’s objectives are to maintain price stability and maximise employment. Despite the robust growth in the job market in June and July, household spending and business investment remains weak.
Inflation is still below the Fed’s 2% target, due to the earlier drop in energy prices and lower prices for imported goods. Exports have declined as foreign demand subdued. The global economy has been subject to vulnerability and growth is still sluggish.
The Fed anticipates gradual rate hikes, yet the recent economic indicators have given mixed signals. Despite some FOMC voters concern that a long term low interest rate level may have an adverse effect on financial stability, the Fed takes a cautious stance on a rate hike by watching carefully the job market, inflation, and global economic growth.

Look our Plan Setup:
(Click and Play)
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/NG9Hp0RT-EURUSD-SIMPLE-BULLISH-SETUP/

Hello Traders! We hope that our analysis can help you in your trading and if you are interested to receive real-time updates about this analysis, click on "I Like" BUTTON on the chart
... thank you very much!!

SignalSwiss
TRADING ROOM: http://www.nonsolotrading.com
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BTCUSD, D Short
34 6679
SYNOPSIS:

A long silence here on $BTC #BitStamp, as the Geo completes an imperfect 5-prime (see parallel lines validation at 5') - Per Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, this 5-prime definition called for a rally with a HIGH probability target corresponding to the price level of Point-4. Turns out, this is exactly what price did, as it rallied from 5' but failed to continue its ascent above the price level of Point-4 - See light PINK range in the following chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2U62QjG2/


GEO CONSTRUCTION:

For the adept in Geo, look for a near perfect construction, where 1-2 Leg represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, the 2-3 Leg represents a complex Elliott Wave (EW) ZZ, the 3-4 Leg represents a simple EW ZZ, and price departs from the validation of the Geo's 1-3 Line.


GEO's OFF-SET RULE:

As a reminder, the Geo's Off-Set Rule represent a geometric compensation where distortion of price along the 1-3 and 2-4 Line will tend to displace the high probability target, such that:

Off-Set Rule #1 - If price rallies from Point-5, the HIGH probability target lies along the 1-4 Line (same as Wolfe Wave target);

Off-Set Rule #2 - If price rallies from Point-5', the HIGH probability target lies at the price level corresponding to Point-4 (as was the case in this example);

AND

Off-Set Rule #3 - If price rallies from Point-5'', the HIGH probability target lies at the price level corresponding to Point-3.

NOTE that the relative incidence of these rules are such that:

Off-Set Rule #2 > Off-Set Rule #1 >>> Off-Set Rule #3


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

Aside from this background geometry, the Predictive/Forecasting Model offers the two following high-probability target:

1 - TG-1 = 266.41 - 09 FEB 2016

AND

2 - TG-Lox = 170.70 - 09 FEB 2016


INVALIDATION:

The higher target that were defined last November remain unattainable at this point, based on the interdicting nature of the Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, whereby price remains subordinate to the Geo's 1-4 Line. However, invalidation of this rule should occur IF price BACA > 1-4 Line (RED arrows), in which case, bearish target would also become invalid.


OVERALL:

Bearish outlook based on background Geo's rule and supported by Predictive/Forecasting Model's bearish target - Invalidation depends upon price breaching above the 1-4 Line.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView:
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EURUSD, 60 Long
0 919
EURUSD remains on bullish track for now since decline from 1.1368 to 1.1270 unfolded in three waves. It was just another correction within uptrend that can now continue up to around 1.1400 area where the next resistance for a possible top of EURUSD is seen. We however would wait on a bearish impulse before high is put in place.

www.ew-forecast.com
@ewforecast
XAUUSD, D Neutral
13 851
Gold is in consolidation for many days. From Elliott wave analysis it might have a very quick wave C correction and then starts the next wave up.

Let's see how it will play!

Good luck for everyone!
SPX, D Neutral
0 120
Above is a close up view of the long term Elliott wave count I illustrated in my 8/22/16 post.
A Elliott wave double Zigzag formed from the 5/20/15 peak to the 2/11/16 bottom.

What could be forming since 2/11/16 appears to be a possible Ending Diagonal Triangle.
Wave "4" of the structure could be underway now. If so the bulls-eye price target is SPX 2114, broader zone from 2124 to 2094.
Bulls-eye target date is 9/1/16 which is a new moon and a Fibonacci 13 trading days from the 8/15/16 SPX peak