quantfinance

quantguy quantguy SPY, 240, Short ,
SPY: Bearish Head and Shoulders forming on SPY
71 0 0
SPY, 240 Short
Bearish Head and Shoulders forming on SPY

A combination of lukewarm earnings for Q1 and talks of an impending Federal Reserve interest rate hike seem to be slowing down the bullish recovery we've seen in the S&P the past several weeks. On the technical side, notice the failure to attain a new high. In fact SPY has consistently been unable to break new highs going back to May 2015, when the bear market ...

quantguy quantguy GILD, 60, Long ,
GILD: GILD: The Little Engine that Could
78 1 1
GILD, 60 Long
GILD: The Little Engine that Could

Despite my overall bearish outlook on stocks, Gilead Sciences stands out as the 'Little Engine that Could' in the sense that it keeps chugging along despite being battered by the broader index just after earnings came out late January. On the fundamental side, most analysts think it's way underweight citing that it should be worth as much as 66% more as per the ...

quantguy quantguy SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: All Eyes on FOMC for Equities Positions
50 0 0
SPY, D Short
All Eyes on FOMC for Equities Positions

Data from the U.S. has improved by the barest of margins. The New York Fed Consumer Survey finds inflation expectations rising (by less than 1%) above expectations, and the ECB rate cut means lots of free cash to play with. Keep in mind we have the FOMC meeting coming up and their decisions will determine the direction of the markets for the near term. ...

quantguy quantguy GILD, D, Long ,
GILD: Can Gilead Beat the Markets?
30 0 0
GILD, D Long
Can Gilead Beat the Markets?

As of March 3rd, Gilead earned a 'buy' rating from Citigroup as verified by the link. It is true that GILD should have performed better after earnings as has been historically demonstrated, but it took a beating with the overall index but failed to share in the rebound. Personally, I think this is a good thing, for you'll note from my previous post here previous ...

quantguy quantguy CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Massive Short Covering Rally in Oil: Trade Accordingly
223 0 3
CL1!, D Short
Massive Short Covering Rally in Oil: Trade Accordingly

There's been a massive short covering rally of near historic proportions in oil recently. As the OPEC circus continues to 'cry wolf' regarding freezing production, the market, once overwhelmingly short on the commodity, takes the opportunity to cash out some of its short positions. There is really no fundamental reason for oil to rally so hard as the attached ...

quantguy quantguy SPY, 60, Short ,
SPY: S&P Rally Short Lived
162 0 4
SPY, 60 Short
S&P Rally Short Lived

With the tsunami of data this week, it was really hard to sieve out anything stellar. At best, we had employment data that was above expectation on Wednesday, as well as a moderately improved ISM manufacturing index. PMI and Factory Orders left much to be desired. Central Bankers all over the world are scratching their heads and trying in futility to save face ...

quantguy quantguy SP1!, D, Short ,
SP1!: No End to Bearish News for the S&P
65 0 2
SP1!, D Short
No End to Bearish News for the S&P

Yesterday, Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve spoke confirming expectations that the Fed would sit tight on interest rates. She even admitted today that the Fed is considering negative interest rates. Her ominous tone did not bode well for the markets as evinced by the abysmal market opening today here in the US. In fact, the world's markets are rearing from ...

quantguy quantguy SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: S&P Solidly Bearish
183 1 4
SPY, D Short
S&P Solidly Bearish

Any hopes for a recovery this week were quashed by today's open and marked declines henceforth. There really doesn't seem to be any indication of a turnaround, unless some good data comes out this week, and there is quite a bit to anticipate. As the attached article notes, analysts are cutting their expectations for the S&P, and it would be good advice to any ...

quantguy quantguy EURUSD, W, Short ,
EURUSD: Dark times for the Euro
112 0 3
EURUSD, W Short
Dark times for the Euro

From political instability to ineffectual QE, bullish news for the Euro is scant. We can look for more confirmation from Draghi to this effect soon to come. As far as the technicals are concerned, we have a very strong bearish head and shoulders pattern forming on the weekly chart. There is massive resistance from above via the ichimoku cloud which will make a ...

quantguy quantguy NFLX, D, Short ,
NFLX: Bearish Double Top on Netflix
47 0 0
NFLX, D Short
Bearish Double Top on Netflix

Unfortunately for NFLX on the fundamentals side, they were ousted from Indonesia, which was a prime target for their international expansion endeavors, due to a failure to fulfill their censorship standards. Unfortunately for them, this simply adds to the list of bearish technical indicators despite 'buy' ratings from numerous sources. First, note the bearish ...

quantguy quantguy AAPL, W, Short ,
AAPL: Bearish Head and Shoulders and a Gloomy Outlook for AAPL
189 0 3
AAPL, W Short
Bearish Head and Shoulders and a Gloomy Outlook for AAPL

When Apple was using the Power PC line of processors in their computers, I was extremely skeptical of them. Their operating systems prior to OS X were abysmal. They crashed all the time, and the availability of software for anything I wanted to do was scant. Then they started rolling out Intel processors, and updated OS, and a slew of performance upgrades and I ...

quantguy quantguy CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: The Bears are still in full force on Crude
155 0 1
CL1!, D Short
The Bears are still in full force on Crude

There seems to be no shortage of bearish news on Crude oil lately. In fact, today's 'dark cloud cover' candlestick pattern is a bearish rejection of the level formed by Friday's close proves the little rally we saw on 2015-01-22 was merely just a short covering frenzy. Almost all the technicals indicate we are in a solid downtrend. The Aroon indicator is still ...

quantguy quantguy DTYL, D, Long ,
DTYL: Green Light on US Treasuries
4 0 0
DTYL, D Long
Green Light on US Treasuries

The China crisis has the world's markets in panic mode. Stocks had the worst first week in history. Currencies are tumultuous and volatile. Its difficult to endorse the Euro for anything more than short term swing trades at best due to their own problems. Commodity currencies are sure to tank, and stocks are too volatile lately in my opinion. One good idea ...

quantguy quantguy CNYEUR, D, Short ,
CNYEUR: Remninmi Bottomed?
9 0 0
CNYEUR, D Short
Remninmi Bottomed?

With the China crash still fresh on everyone's minds its time to ask if the Renminbi has bottomed out or if there is still room to crash. Based on the link attached, there seems to be the potential for a lot more bad debt that China is trying to avoid confronting, and probably couldn't even account for if they tried. On the technical side, note the massive ...

quantguy quantguy EURUSD, 15, Long ,
EURUSD: China fears bolster the Euro
51 0 3
EURUSD, 15 Long
China fears bolster the Euro

Following logic from my linked post on Commodity Currencies such as the AUD, we can expect attention on the Euro as a safeguard. In fact, EURUSD is picking up as I write this post. At this point, I'd wait for a dip entering a trade, as a brief retracement is inevitable. However the MACD indicates a bullish turn, the OBV is showing increased bullish pressure and ...

quantguy quantguy AUDUSD, 15, Short ,
AUDUSD: China fears wreck commodity currencies
34 0 2
AUDUSD, 15 Short
China fears wreck commodity currencies

As we all know by now, the Chinese markets were only open 14 minutes before a crushing 7% loss tripped safeguards. Recently, news came out to the effect that we can expect a further devaluation of their currency. This will hurt commodity currencies like AUD. In fact, its slipping as I'm writing this. My short position is bolstered by massive pressure from ...

quantguy quantguy SPY, 30, Short ,
SPY: Bearish outlook on the S&P
27 0 0
SPY, 30 Short
Bearish outlook on the S&P

A variety of technical indicators coupled with the Fed's recent rate rise may suggest a bearish outlook on the S&P 500. Note the gap up on 12/15 only to be followed by a gap down two days later, from which SPY was never able to recover. We also see tremendous pressure from above via the Ichimoku Cloud, but lots of room to fall from below. The MACD/RSI combo ...

quantguy quantguy VB, D, Short ,
VB: The Rich Get Richer...
4 0 0
VB, D Short
The Rich Get Richer...

While the Fed is boasting good data supporting rate hikes, they neglect to mention the fact that 51% of Americans make less than $30K a year, or that they work more hours than any country in the world. Something else they focus on are broad market indices for which the top 500 companies carry the slack of the smaller cap companies which are feeling the weight of ...

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