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Since 1971 when the USD and most other fiat currencies were not linked to Gold anymore, we haven't seen stocks really go up. Stocks expressed in Gold were already up substantially at the time and after Nixon closed the gold window Stocks dropped 95% against gold. Below I have put the DJIA since 1915 and 1971, as these are the best data we can get. The truth is...
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The price action we've seen since October looks a lot like the tech bubble of Y2K. The combination of mean aversion and valuation levels like this have only occurred two times in the past(1929,2000). Corporate buy backs and excess leverage(everywhere) where also traits of these historical crashes. Using the first tech bubble as a model, I've projected what...
It is important to understand that primary trends of stocks, bonds, and commodities are determined by the attitude of investors during unfolding of events in the business cycle. An understanding of the interrelationship of credit, equity, and commodity markets provides a useful framework for identifying major reversals in each. MARKET MOVEMENTS AND BUSINESS...
Recently, the Russel2000 and the Nasdaq100 are developing more and more in different directions. Since we expect a weaker stock market in the coming weeks and months and the Nasdaq100 can drop significantly lower, the possibility exists for a spread trade in both assets. The approach is relatively simple: Long in the Russel2000 and short the Nasdaq100. IMPORTANT...