NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92.
Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts.
After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish...
This Trade setup is called a 333 trade because it has 3 legs down and the 3rd leg has 3 bars down on these 3 month charts. I'm expecting a large final bar down over the next few days/weeks. It may end on 3 days of drop like it did on Black Monday, where the 3rd day had a 20% drop or it may last for a week or two.
Sh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically
crushed.
It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4.
One by one these are failing.
Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound.
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Short term, we'll...
20 year yields appear to be breaking out of a long downtrend which has witnessed a boom in the stock market since this asset's crash back in March of last year.
But now the winds seem to be shifting possibly again as now the TLT has started July with fireworks and yields appear to be flipping bullish.
This would be very bad for stocks.. however please keep in mind...
those 2 chart seems pretty similar.
fact is: it's not only NIO. TSLA too is similar, EV stocks are similar, SOLAR stocks are similar, trendies are similar..
and you know what?
APPLE price dropped 80% after that...
check this
and what else do we see?
before that, volume was lowering, but the crash omg, there was so much volume...
and what else?
well, do you...
There's a wiff of deflation in the air and the market has broadly, although not chaotically, sold off. It appears like a massive ascending wedge is developing in Treasuries.
The cross is using the 20 and 50 exponential moving average.
$136.5 --- short term support
If we brake down, the next support is close to the 200SMA ($130).
The rate cut tomorrow with Powell's speech will most likely move this indicator.
