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Century Aluminum (CENX)Century Aluminum (CENX): A Pivotal Inflection Point for a North American Aluminum Producer
Investment View: We recommend a LONG position in Century Aluminum (CENX) with a 2-month price target of $55, supported by a structurally tight U.S. aluminum market, rapidly improving operating performance, strong realized aluminum prices, and the potentially transformative Oklahoma smelter project.
Ticker: CENX
Entry Price: $43.24
Target Price: $55.00
Stop-Loss: $37.00
Investment Thesis
The CENX investment case rests on three key drivers:
Rapid improvement in operating performance and earnings.
A structurally tight U.S. aluminum market supported by tariffs, low inventories, and an expected global supply deficit.
The Oklahoma smelter project, which could materially expand Century's production footprint and long-term earnings capacity.
1. Earnings Are Entering a Phase of Structural Improvement
Century Aluminum is emerging from a multi-year period of operational disruptions.
In Q2, aluminum shipments increased 6% QoQ to 130,632 tonnes, following the completion of the Mt. Holly expansion and the restart of the second production line at Grundartangi.
Importantly, Q2 results do not yet reflect the full benefit of these operational improvements. During the quarter, Century completed the restart of the final 90 reduction cells at Mt. Holly, while Grundartangi brought its second line back to nearly full utilization.
Management expects Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $325–345 million, roughly 3x the Q2 level, implying a significantly stronger earnings base even without further increases in aluminum prices.
The earnings recovery is also being supported by a stronger balance sheet. At the end of Q2, Century held $343.4 million in cash and was in a net cash position.
The balance sheet was further strengthened in July by a $94.3 million Section 45X tax credit refund for 2025.
2. U.S. Aluminum Market Fundamentals Remain Highly Supportive
CENX offers one of the most direct ways to gain exposure to a tightening supply-demand balance in the U.S. primary aluminum market.
The 50% Section 232 tariff continues to provide meaningful protection for domestic producers. At the same time, Century's Q2 materials point to historically low global inventories and an expected global aluminum deficit of approximately 1 million tonnes in 2026, with tight market conditions likely to persist into 2027.
This backdrop supports aluminum pricing and enhances Century's earnings sensitivity to higher realized prices.
3. The Oklahoma Project Adds a Major Long-Term Growth Catalyst
Century's planned primary aluminum project in Oklahoma, developed jointly with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), could materially reshape the company's long-term production profile.
EGA is expected to own 60% of the joint venture, with Century holding the remaining 40%.
The facility is expected to produce approximately 750,000 tonnes of aluminum annually, more than doubling current U.S. primary aluminum production capacity.
Construction is scheduled to begin in late 2026, with initial production expected by late 2029.
The project has received support through a $500 million U.S. Department of Energy grant.
An additional economic incentive was introduced through a July 2026 executive order. Companies investing in new U.S. aluminum production capacity may qualify to import aluminum at a reduced 25% tariff rate, compared with the standard 50% rate, for volumes equivalent to their planned new domestic capacity.
Century expects to receive authorization to import up to 300,000 tonnes of aluminum annually at the reduced tariff rate beginning in 2027. The resulting savings are expected to help fund Century's share of the Oklahoma project.
Conclusion
With improving operations, supportive aluminum prices, a net cash position, and significant long-term upside from the Oklahoma project, we believe CENX offers an attractive risk/reward profile at current levels. 
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Aluminum's Worst Crash Since 2008: But Where's the Metal?Aluminum just posted its worst month since 2008, falling 16% in June and erasing the entire March through May rally in one move. The trigger was geopolitical: a fragile but real de-escalation between the US and Iran that raised the prospect of Persian Gulf shipments resuming, a region that supplies nearly a tenth of global output. Markets moved fast on that expectation, flipping the futures curve into contango and collapsing physical premiums even before a single additional tonne actually reached the market. That gap, between priced-in relief and delivered supply, is the central tension in aluminum right now.
The macro backdrop compounded the move. The Fed held rates steady in June, but its updated projections show a majority of officials now leaning toward a hike later this year, a sharp reversal from the cutting bias priced in just months earlier. That hawkish pivot pushed the dollar higher, which mechanically pressures dollar-denominated commodities and gave sellers another reason to exit long positions built during the spring supply scare. Rising output from China and Indonesia added a second layer of supply-side pressure, reinforcing the same directional trade.
What the price action obscures is that physical tightness has not actually resolved. LME warehouse stocks kept falling through late June, down roughly 38% since the start of the year, even as prices dropped. That divergence, futures pricing in a supply recovery that hasn't yet shown up in inventories, is a bet on where Gulf shipments and Chinese output are headed, not a reflection of today's balance sheet. If the Iran truce falters, as it briefly appeared to in late June, or if the ramp from Gulf producers proves slower than the curve now assumes, the market has room to reprice sharply back higher.
Beneath the volatility, the structural story is intact and arguably underappreciated. Copper's price, still roughly four times aluminum's, keeps pushing high-tech manufacturers toward aluminum in EV wiring and grid infrastructure, a substitution trend that doesn't reverse on a one-month price swing. For producers, the near-term challenge is margin discipline in a sluggish spot market where buyers won't commit to inventory at current prices. For investors, the real question isn't whether June's crash was overdone; it's whether the market is correctly pricing a supply recovery that, as of today, exists mostly on paper. 
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Supply shortfall might continue to support aluminum prices.Aluminum prices recently surged following facility damage at a major Middle East producer, fueling expectations of a 900,000 metric ton supply deficit in 2Q2026. Compounding supply constraints, China, the world’s largest producer, reported a 2.2% YoY decrease in Mar output, driven by escalating costs and scheduled maintenance. Meanwhile, robust demand from the solar, battery pack, and automotive sectors continues to exacerbate the shortfall, providing further upside momentum to prices.
Technically, XALUSD trades above both extension EMAs, signaling a sustained bullish trend.
Should XALUSD breach resistance at 3730, the price could rise further to test the 4-year high at 3880.
Conversely, a break below 3530 could lead to a retest of the next support level at 3415.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness Long 
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ALUMINIUM: Selling opportunity following trendline breakALUMINIUM climbed a steep uptrend but it might meets its end with this recent break through this rising trendline. When price respects a trendline repeatedly, it becomes significant, its break indicating either a potential reversal or major pause in the trend. The candlestick that broke the trendline signals the first hint of structural change.
After breaking, price traced backward to retest the trendline. The retest manifested as a cluster of candles with wicks testing the former trendline but failing to reclaim it. That failure to reclaim, might signal seller conviction and transformation of market structure. But it would need additional confirmation to confirm the signal.
Ideally, what I look for in retests is to be met with a confirming candle, typically a bearish engulfing or marubozu closing below the trendline. This would confirm the sellers have taken over and validate the change from uptrend to potential downtrend or consolidation phase.
If I were to take a side here, I would choose more downside, but again only price action should determine next move.
However, if price breaks back above the trendline with conviction, especially engulfing the retest, it would invalidate the bearish scenario, suggesting that the uptrend may resume with fresh momentum.
Just sharing my thoughts for the charts, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Short 
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Target 🎯: 2480 (or) Escape Before the Target
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Aluminium Market Analysis The Week Ahead 03rd March ‘25Aluminium maintains a bullish sentiment, supported by a longer-term uptrend. However, recent price action shows sideways consolidation, indicating a potential breakout or corrective move in the near term.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Levels: 2708, 2740, 2780
Support Levels: 2660, 2544 (200 DMA), 2480, 2360
Bullish Scenario
A strong breakout above the 2660 resistance level could confirm bullish continuation, targeting 2708, followed by 2740 and 2780 in the longer term. If price sustains above 2660, it would signal renewed buying interest, reinforcing the prevailing uptrend.
Bearish Scenario
A confirmed breakdown below 2544 (200 DMA), with a daily close under this level, would weaken the bullish outlook. This could open the door for further declines toward 2480, with extended downside risk toward 2360 if selling pressure persists.
Conclusion
Aluminium remains bullish, but price action around 2660 will determine the next move. A breakout above this level could drive further gains, while a failure to hold above key support at 2544 may shift momentum toward a deeper correction. Traders should monitor these levels closely for confirmation of trend direction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
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LOOKING FOR 59 % OF ROI IN 99 DAYS ? HAVE A LOOK ON THIS SHAREWorldwide Aluminium Ltd (Formerly known Worldwide Leather Exports Ltd) was incorporated in June, 1990. The Haryana based company was earlier engaged in the business of merchant exporting of footwear. The Company opened a retail outlet in Gurgaon underthe name of Bertini Retail during 2004. During 200506, the Company showcased shoes under the Bertini brand at Shoppers Stop. It became a preferred supplier to the prestigious chain Shoe Tree. Recently, it signed an MOU for supply of select footwear to owners of Egle brand under their new launch of Homme.Thereafter, the Company altered the main object clause of the Memorandum of Association there by enabling to carry on the business relating to Manufacturing, Trading of aluminum foils, powders, wires, cable sheets and grills during year 201718. The name of Company was changed from Worldwide Leather Exports Limited to Worldwide Aluminium Limited during 201920 and resulting during 201920, it engaged in the trading of all kinds of aluminium foils, aluminium sheets, strips, coils, PP caps etc.
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