The Aussie has broken various resistance levels this week as R1 for April at 0.7840, the MM 100 at .7885 and topside line for the last up prices. it´s starting a pullback movement that likely go to levels previously broken.
Risk reward ratio is about 3.9 to 1. Both 89 & 144 EMA lie within sell zone. With USD news coming out today, price could reach our entry zone very shortly. Aussie leadership would like price at least .7500 handle to promote exports.
Expect Long term Channel can Provide Support. But Long term Channel Break will Provide a High Probability Trade. But Continuing Shorts until Such time.
Yellow levels are daily support and resistance.
Red levels are h4 support and resistance.
There are two possible trades here, if PA suggests when the price trades up to the red level that there are loads of sellers I would short.
Otherwise if the red level breaks (which I think it might) that level is essentially useless to me as it was previously...
BASIS FOR SHORTING THIS TRADE
PIN BAR FORMED AT
0.7700 RESISTANCE
D1 20SMA AND 50SMA
H4 200SMA
50% FIB
PRICE HAS FAILED TO CLOSE ABOVE 0.7700 3 TIMES ON THE D1
SLIGHT BEARISH DIVERGENCE ON THE H4
HOWEVER, THE ONLY OFF THING ABOUT THIS TRADE IS THAT THE RISK REWARD CURRENTLY IS NOT FAVOURABLE. THUS, I MAY KEEP MY HANDS OUT OF THIS TRADE.
H4 CHART
...
AUDUSD short setup:
This pair has recently sold off from the third touch of daily trend line it seems to have formed. Price has been somewhat ranging and currently seems to be forming a bearish flag/wedge like pattern. Price bounced from support and may have completed its C retracement at the 50 fib level which is confluent with the daily 200MA, however there's a...
AUDUSD - Potential Short Imminent (2nd Entry) with FOMC's Minutes later today
Please check the main chart with link below which shows larger bearish cycle with lot of room to the downside.
I am publishing this chart purely because the nature of retracement seems to suggest we have abc zigzag retracement with potentially wave "c" as being ending diagonal (Rising...
AUDUSD HAD A SPIKE UPWARDS. THIS SPIKE HAS MET RESISTANCE AT 0.77 FAILING TO CLOSE ABOVE IT.
MOREOVER ON THE D1, PRICE HAS BROKEN THE MOTHER BAR AND FAILED TO CLOSE ABOVE IT SINCE, CREATING A FAKEY.
SELL NOW AND TARGET 0.76.
STOP OUT POSITION IF H4 SUCCESSFULLY CLOSE ABOVE 0.7700 OR BREAK THE HIGH OF THE H4 PIN BAR.
The GBP/AUD pair has endured a powerful bear market since 2001, however, many correlating indicators are suggesting that we may be close approaching a confirmed pivotal change in the dominant trend.
Our first major indicator was the cross of the 50/200 Exponential Moving Averages which occurred in January of 2014. The last time these indicators crossed...
The Aussie has broken supports, first support formed by zone between 0.7735-0.7750, and second support formed by channel's bottom at 0.7700. Now we can see a pullback testing these zones how resistence. Also we have the line of MM's 200H doing resistence. Likely the price goes to zone 0.7490-0.7470
WITH ALL THE SELLING OF GBP NZD AND EUR.
IT IS NO SURPRISE TO ME THAT AUD WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND SELL OFF, CORRELATION WISE.
(NZD CORRELATES WITH AUD, EUR WITH GBP.)
LOOK HOW PRICE REACTS WHEN IT NEARS THE 200 50 20 SMA CONFLUENCE AREA.
AND LOOK TO SELL ON BEARISH PRICE ACTION H4 LEVEL,
PREFERABLY 0.785
NOTE :
DOUBLE BOTTOM @ 0.765
PRICE REJECTED FROM 200SMA...
Watch AUDUSD H4 (20 Min)
1. Support was broken @0.80467
2. Will try to re-test last high
3. 10 SMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA are lagging behind and are close to the last high
4. 0.618 fib level is right at the place where last high was making it a good place to short
5. Stop @ 0.81758
6. First Target @ 0.79255
7. Second Target tail as it is reaching weekly support area...
Apologies for repeating this post my chart didn't come out properly but still the same analyses on AUD/USD 4HR
Monthly support broken now historically finding a previous floor with 2 targets in mind. First is the daily fib 3.618 retracement 2nd the next level down which is also the length added from its average range and confluence with a monthly support. Lower...
Been in and out this long term trade over the last couple of weeks and looking for another possibly on the descending trendline. I believe there is still a lot more dropping to do after a top down analyse from the monthly to the 4hr . With lower lows and highs still in play and recently a monthly support now broken im targeting the next fib and monthly support...
Potentially have a Gartley Sell pattern on the 60 minute AUDUSD. While the ratios aren't 100% right, if you look further left you'll see that D lies in an area of previous structure and coupled with an increasing RSI it seems reasonable to assume there will be some downward action at that point.
SELL @ 0.8566
BUY @ 0.8615 (SL)
BUY @ 0.8489 (TP)
Risk: 59...
Hi, this an update to the idea: Why AUDUSD is Likely to Trade Lower
Since the idea was posted, price has consolidated retraced to as high as 0.8850. At time of writing, price is trading at 0.8710s and is showing intention to breakout on the downside, forming the Wave 3 (strongest wave) of an Elliott 5 Wave Pattern.
In short, price action indicates that it is...
Why AUDUSD is Likely to Trade Lower
We observed from Feb 2009 to May 2012, AUDUSD has been trading along an uptrend line. This line was broken on May 2012, indicating that the bullish trend was over and we see that price has transition into a sideways consolidation between 0.9500s and 1.0830s for a while. This sideways phase was over when price broke below...
