$EURUSD - $1.18 as a decisive levelHi guys! 👋
🔔 EURUSD is at 1.1690 and the market is stuck. It bounced hard off the March lows at 1.1407, gained over 200 pips in a week when the ceasefire headlines hit, and now it's sitting right under the one level that matters — 1.1820.
🔔 Break it and hold it, this goes to 1.2000 and potentially 1.2500. Can't break it, and 1.1200–1.1180 becomes the next stop.
🔔 What followed in early 2025 was a strong impulsive move — clean, fast, technically valid — that broke price above the mid-range of the triangle and ran all the way to 1.2000. That impulse matters.
🔔 The problem is the ascending broadening wedge sitting on top of it. Higher highs, higher lows, but the boundaries are expanding not tightening.
🔔 The MA50 crossed below the MA200. That's a Death Cross, it's confirmed, and it's sitting right where price is trading now. You're basically trading inside the moving average cluster, which means every candle from here is a fight between the bulls trying to reclaim it and the bears defending it.
🔔 The 50% level is where the market tends to find genuine buyers after a corrective move, and the bounce off it has been real. The question is whether that bounce has enough behind it to take out 1.1820 or whether it fades into the moving average cluster and rolls over.
Bias : Retest $1.182 and go down to $1.11
Invalidation : If closes above $1.182, which will lead to another jump to $1.20
✊ Good luck with your trades! ✊
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Short
