Agenda 89 --- the path to spy's next major topso I been rambling about agenda 89 and spy cycles for like ages. I also more or less blew my account up not listening to my own advice and my own levels. key thing here is market follows cycles. and no I am not willing to share the prior cycles. this here is for me more than anyone else.
I am not good with numbers so I had chatgpt do the calculations for me and the rationale made sense given my basic college math level knowledge. In fact the cycles that gpt calculated appeared to follow the same cycle rules that I used to detect the historical cycles. I have only 3 historical cycles detected. in recent times. reason being that since 2008 Aladdin took over the market and things changed. there is a certain year where it all did shift but for simplicity only data after 2008 matters because after that Aladdin by blackrock the mega algorithm managed all the trillions that move the market daily. it literally trades with itself. it's too huge to fail so I will not fight it. the cycles have also been shrinking in expansion per say. the next top is likley the last or second to last before some major black swans start happening. At least that's what aladdin has priced in. he knows more about you than yourself and
other notes is that the tops follow wycoff style, the expanded and got more volatile as they progressed and I plan to follow the same pattern in my projections. my projections are half lazy in terms of the tops/bottoms. it can really follow any wycoff. but of note, when all was noted and combined chatgpt described it as a wycoff schematic #1. even though when I typed the pattern that i saw in i labeled it as musical notes. I did not paint very well on chart because things in real life do not follow the textbook 1-1, point is, whipsaw and that's your range there more or less. I am not sure how to past an image here so just google it.
the rules and this is for me to not blow my account up anymore:
1- no timing the market, it dipped? good it can dip lower before tuning up. so expect the trades to be long. were looking at 13 dips before the top in febuary.
2- the numbers can be off slightly. I'm no picasso, can;t time or paint the market. levels evolve and change with time. the range wont change though.
3- the true top is likley a tuesday or a wednesday since historically it was those days so extra bias for them
4- no greed
5- yes this will chop until next year mid febuary - do not blow up. RANGE BOUND.
I'm expecting possibilities of up to 720-730 for the top on spy since that would be two full cycles in geometry which would make sense assuming the prior 3 were 90 degrees each. hence a strong belief of mine that this may be the last market cycle aladdin is pricing in before doomsday events. Aladdin probably knows when WW3 will start before the guys launching the nukes know it will start and has been pricing it in since it took over the markets. that thing is a monster beyond comprehension.
Chart Patterns
GER40 at a Crossroads: Parabolic Breakout or Exhaustion Top? 🇩🇪 GER40 DAX INDEX | Premium Technical Analysis & Trading Blueprint | 23,967.9 🇩🇪
📊 INSTITUTIONAL MULTI-TIMEFRAME MASTERCLASS | NOVEMBER 3-7, 2025 FORECAST 📊
Current Level: 23,967.9 | Analysis Date: November 1, 2025, 00:54 UTC+4
Hey, TradingView fam! 👋 The German powerhouse, GER40, has put on a spectacular show, closing the week at a mighty 23,967.9 . After such a vertical ascent, traders are rightfully asking: Is this the start of a new parabolic phase, or are we witnessing a massive exhaustion top in the making? The upcoming week, from November 3rd to 7th, is poised to give us the answer.
Let's dissect the charts across multiple timeframes, combining timeless theories with key indicators to map out the strategic path forward for both intraday and swing traders. 🧭
╔═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
🎯 STRATEGIC MARKET INTELLIGENCE OVERVIEW
The German DAX Index commands attention at 23,967.9 , positioning at a pivotal technical crossroads that will define European equity direction through Q4 2025. Our sophisticated multi-dimensional analysis reveals cautious optimism with breakout potential as the index tests critical resistance near the psychological 24,000 barrier. This week's confluence of ECB policy implications, US election spillover, and technical setups creates exceptional risk-reward opportunities for prepared traders.
Institutional Support Architecture: 🛡️
Immediate Foundation: 23,900 - 23,920 (Algo bid zone)
Secondary Cushion: 23,850 - 23,870 (Volume-weighted support)
Critical Platform: 23,750 - 23,780 (Weekly pivot cluster)
Major Fortress: 23,650 - 23,680 (Psychological & structural)
Resistance Target Matrix: 🎯
First Hurdle: 24,000 - 24,020 (Psychological barrier)
Secondary Wall: 24,100 - 24,120 (Pattern objective)
Breakout Zone: 24,200 - 24,250 (Extension target)
Major Milestone: 24,350 - 24,400 (Monthly target)
╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
📈 WEEKLY TIMEFRAME (1W) - MACRO STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS
Elliott Wave Supercycle Mapping: 🌊
Currently navigating Wave 4 consolidation within larger Wave (5) of the supercycle advance. The shallow retracement (38.2% Fibonacci) suggests underlying strength with Wave 5 targeting 24,500-24,800 . Alternative count places us in Wave B of corrective ABC - monitor 23,650 for bearish confirmation.
Primary Scenario: Wave 4 complete, Wave 5 underway to 24,500+
Alternative: Wave B top forming, Wave C decline to 23,200
Invalidation Level: Weekly close below 23,500
Time Projection: Completion by mid-November
Wyckoff Distribution/Re-Accumulation: 📚
Critical Juncture - Phase B/C Transition
- Preliminary Supply (PSY): 24,100 tested
- Buying Climax (BC): 24,150 rejection
- Automatic Reaction (AR): 23,750 held
- Secondary Test (ST): Current 23,967
- Upthrust pending: Above 24,000
Ichimoku Cloud European Perspective: ☁️
Tenkan-sen: 23,885 (9-period support)
Kijun-sen: 23,820 (26-period base)
Senkou Span A: 23,950 (cloud resistance)
Senkou Span B: 23,780 (cloud support)
Chikou Span: Neutral (at price level)
Cloud Status: Thin, potential twist ahead
Advanced Harmonic Configuration: 🦋
Emerging Bullish Shark pattern with precision measurements:
- 0 Point: 23,450 (October low)
- X Point: 24,150 (October high)
- A Point: 23,650 (retracement low)
- B Point: 23,967 (current - 0.618 XA)
- C Target: 23,750 (1.13 AB extension)
- D Completion: 24,350 (0.886 XC)
Gann Master Analysis: 📐
Price respecting 3x1 Gann angle from September base. Critical Gann levels:
- Current angle support: 23,920
- 45-degree resistance: 24,050
- Square of 9 target: 24,144
- Time cycle: November 6 (+/- 1 day)
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📊 DAILY TIMEFRAME (1D) - SWING TRADING COMMAND
Japanese Candlestick Intelligence: 🕯️
Yesterday's Hanging Man at resistance warns of potential reversal. Critical observation for today:
- Close above 24,000 = Bullish Engulfing invalidates reversal
- Close below 23,900 = Bearish Confirmation
- Doji formation = Continued indecision
Master Pattern Recognition:
Ascending Triangle approaching apex:
- Horizontal resistance: 24,000-24,020
- Rising support: Currently at 23,880
- Breakout target: 24,320 (320-point measured move)
- Volume requirement: 30% above 20-day average
- False breakout risk: High due to round number
Bollinger Bands Configuration: 📈
Upper Band: 24,015 (kissing price)
Middle Band (20-SMA): 23,870 (dynamic support)
Lower Band: 23,725 (oversold boundary)
Band Width: Contracting (squeeze alert)
%B Reading: 0.89 (upper band test)
RSI Momentum Analysis:
Daily RSI: 64 (approaching overbought)
Bearish divergence forming vs price highs
Support trend line: 55 level
Resistance: 70 level (6 points away)
Volume Profile Insights: 📊
- High Volume Node: 23,850-23,900
- Point of Control: 23,875
- Value Area High: 23,950
- Value Area Low: 23,800
- Low Volume Gap: 24,020-24,080 (breakout zone)
╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
⚡ 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME (4H) - TACTICAL FRAMEWORK
Dow Theory Application: ✅
Primary Trend: Bullish (higher highs maintained)
Secondary Trend: Consolidation/Distribution question
Minor Trend: Testing resistance
Volume Pattern: Declining on rallies (caution)
Confirmation needed: Break above 24,020
DAX/STOXX correlation: Diverging (warning)
Moving Average Configuration:
EMA 8: 23,945 (micro support)
EMA 21: 23,915 (short-term support)
EMA 50: 23,880 (medium support)
SMA 100: 23,825 (strong support)
SMA 200: 23,750 (major trend support)
Golden Cross: EMA 50 above SMA 100 ✅
Chart Pattern Alert: 🚨
Rising Wedge formation - bearish implications:
- Upper trendline: 23,980-24,000
- Lower trendline: 23,850-23,870
- Breakdown target: 23,700
- Invalidation: Close above 24,020
╔═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
🎪 1-HOUR TIMEFRAME (1H) - PRECISION ENTRY MATRIX
Micro Pattern Development: 🔬
Triple Top formation at 23,980:
- First top: 23,975 (Monday)
- Second top: 23,982 (Wednesday)
- Third top: 23,978 (Friday)
- Neckline support: 23,920
- Breakdown target: 23,860
VWAP Trading Framework:
Daily VWAP: 23,952
Weekly VWAP: 23,895
Monthly VWAP: 23,810
Upper Band 1: 23,985 (resistance)
Upper Band 2: 24,018 (strong resistance)
Lower Band 1: 23,919 (support)
Lower Band 2: 23,886 (strong support)
Support & Resistance Precision:
R4: 24,050 (Major resistance)
R3: 24,020 (Round number)
R2: 23,990 (Pattern resistance)
R1: 23,975 (Immediate ceiling)
PIVOT: 23,967.9 (Current)
S1: 23,950 (Micro support)
S2: 23,920 (Neckline)
S3: 23,890 (Strong support)
╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
⚡ 30-MINUTE SCALPING LABORATORY (30M)
Microstructure Dynamics: 🎯
Range-bound channel :
- Upper boundary: 23,975-23,985
- Middle pivot: 23,950-23,955
- Lower boundary: 23,925-23,935
- Breakout pending: 70% probability upward
European Session Dynamics: 🕐
Frankfurt Open (08:00 CET):
- Average range: 40-50 points
- Directional bias: First 30 minutes
London Overlap (09:00 GMT):
- Volatility spike: 60-80 points
- Best scalping window
US Premarket Impact (13:30 CET):
- Range expansion: 80-100 points
Scalping Execution Zones:
Buy Zones:
• Zone A: 23,945-23,950 (VWAP test)
• Zone B: 23,925-23,930 (Channel bottom)
• Zone C: 23,900-23,905 (Strong bid)
Sell Zones:
• Zone A: 23,975-23,980 (Triple top)
• Zone B: 23,990-23,995 (Resistance cluster)
• Zone C: 24,010-24,015 (Major resistance)
╔═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
🏃 15-MINUTE & 5-MINUTE ULTRA-SCALPING
15-Minute Momentum Setup: ⚡
Bull Flag micro pattern:
- Pole: 23,920 to 23,970 (50 points)
- Flag: 23,955-23,965 consolidation
- Breakout trigger: 23,968
- Quick target: 24,000 (+32 points)
- Stop: 23,950 (-18 points)
5-Minute Algorithm Signals:
Long Conditions:
RSI(5) oversold (<25) + VWAP bounce = BUY
MACD bullish cross + Volume spike = BUY
EMA(8) > EMA(21) + Pullback = BUY
Short Conditions:
RSI(5) overbought (>75) + Resistance = SELL
MACD bearish cross + High volume = SELL
Failed breakout at 24,000 = SELL
Management:
TP: 15-20 points | SL: 10-12 points
Max hold: 10 minutes | Trail: 8 points
╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
📅 WEEKLY STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK (NOVEMBER 3-7, 2025)
Monday, November 3: 🚀
Gap-up potential to 24,000 test
Strategy: Sell resistance, buy 23,920 dips
Key levels: 23,920 support, 24,000 resistance
Expected range: 80 points
Tuesday, November 4: 🗳️
US Election volatility spillover to DAX
Strategy: Wide stops, reduced size
Potential range: 23,750-24,100 (350 points!)
Correlation with US futures critical
Wednesday, November 5: 💥
Post-election directional resolution
Strategy: Trade breakout with conviction
Bullish above 24,050 → Target 24,200
Bearish below 23,850 → Target 23,700
Thursday, November 6: 📊
ECB officials speaking + German data
Strategy: Fade initial moves
Expected consolidation: 23,900-24,000
Focus on European session
Friday, November 7: 🎯
Weekly close crucial for next week's bias
Strategy: Position for weekly close
Above 24,000 = Bullish continuation
Below 23,900 = Bearish reversal
╔═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
⚖️ PROFESSIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
Intraday Risk Parameters: 🛡️
Position size: 0.5-1% account risk
Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2, target 1:3
Daily stop: -2% maximum loss
Consecutive losses: 3 max, then pause
Profit protection: Trail at 60% gain
Breakeven: Move stop at +15 points
Correlation monitor: Watch US futures
Swing Position Framework: 💼
Core position: 40% at 23,900-23,920
Scale-in: 30% at 23,850, 30% at 23,800
Stop loss: Below 23,750 (all positions)
Target 1: 24,050 (25% exit)
Target 2: 24,150 (35% exit)
Target 3: 24,250 (25% exit)
Runner: 24,350+ (15% hold)
╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
🔴 RISK SCENARIOS & CONTINGENCIES
Bearish Triggers: 🐻
30-min close below 23,950 = Micro caution
Hourly close below 23,920 = Intraday bearish
4H close below 23,880 = Swing bearish
Daily close below 23,800 = Trend concern
Weekly close below 23,650 = Major reversal
European Risk Factors: 🦢
• ECB policy surprises (100+ point moves)
• German economic data shocks
• EU political developments
• Energy crisis escalation
• Banking sector concerns
╔═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
💎 ELITE CONFLUENCE TRADING ZONES
Optimal Buy Zone: ✅
23,880-23,920
(Multi-timeframe support + Fibonacci 61.8% + VWAP + Moving averages)
Premium Sell Zone: ❌
23,990-24,020
(Triple top + Round number + Bollinger Band + Wedge resistance)
Breakout Trigger: 🚀
24,020-24,050
(Pattern completion + Resistance break + Volume confirmation)
╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
🏆 MASTER TRADER'S VERDICT
The DAX at 23,967.9 stands at a critical inflection point with the psychological 24,000 level acting as the decisive battleground. Technical indicators suggest cautious bullish bias but with increasing distribution signals. The week ahead demands disciplined execution and nimble position management.
Top 3 High-Probability Setups: 🎯
Range Trade: Buy 23,900, Sell 23,980 (Multiple touches)
Breakout Long: Above 24,020 → Target 24,150 (Clear skies)
Reversal Short: Triple top failure at 23,980 → Target 23,850
Trading Wisdom: 🧠
The DAX rewards patience at extremes. Trade the range until proven otherwise. Respect the 24,000 psychological level.
"The European markets dance to their own rhythm - master the tempo, profit from the moves!" 💶
╔═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
📍 ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING
Range-bound action between 23,850-24,020 until catalyst emerges. US election spillover likely to provide directional resolution. Accumulate dips toward 23,900 for upside potential to 24,200+.
Trade European hours. Respect correlations. Profit consistently. 💰
╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
#DAX #GER40 #DAX40 #TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #EuropeanMarkets #Indices #DayTrading #SwingTrading #ElliottWave #Wyckoff #HarmonicPatterns #ECB #Frankfurt #GermanStocks #STOXX #EuropeTrading #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #Forex #MarketForecast
🔔 Follow for Premium European Market Analysis | Präzision • Disziplin • Profit 📊
Risk Notice: Trading carries significant risk of loss. This analysis is educational only. Past performance does not predict future results. Conduct your own research and apply proper risk management.
BTC/USDT | Bitcoin Bounces Back — Bulls Eyeing $112K Next!By analyzing the #BTC chart on the 12-hour timeframe, we can see that after a healthy correction down to $106,350, Bitcoin has regained its footing and is once again trading near the $110,000 zone. This recovery shows that buyers are still stepping in aggressively to defend key supports and maintain bullish momentum.
As long as BTC stays above $108,600, the bullish outlook remains valid. The next upside target sits around $112,000, where we might see some short-term reaction before another potential correction — likely a setup before the next major bullish wave.
LINKUSDT → A trap? Grabbing liquidity before the fall...BINANCE:LINKUSDT is forming a correction after a bearish run. A false breakdown of support is triggering a correction before a possible continuation of the decline.
The coin is testing the support of the trading range within the downtrend. The reaction to the false breakdown of support is a pullback to the zone of interest. After a strong downward distribution, a correction to the break-even zone is forming. A false breakout of resistance at 17.45 could trigger a continuation of the decline due to a weak market and a liquidity pool formed above 17.450, which is likely to stop the pullback on the bearish trend.
Resistance levels: 17.450
Support levels: 16.53, 15.77
The downtrend may continue. A retest of resistance may end in a fall and an update of the local minimum, as well as reaching the zone of interest at 15.77.
Best regards, R. Linda!
BTC Weekend Setup — Possible Volume Push Toward 116KBTC Weekend Setup — Possible Volume Push Toward 116K 🔥
Coinbase effect + China can play an important role for the breakout of 116K+
Bitcoin has broken out of its descending channel, reclaiming structure and showing early signs of strength.
Momentum is gradually building within the new ascending trend, suggesting that the weekend could bring a volume expansion targeting the 116K zone.
📈 Technical Outlook:
BTC successfully flipped the 106K–108K area into support.
The new uptrend channel is forming higher lows and showing a steady recovery pace.
Volume remains low but is expected to increase into the weekend, often a period of volatility and directional moves.
🎯 Targets:
First resistance: $112K–$113K
Main target zone: $115K–$116K
If volume confirms, a push to 116K could complete this short-term recovery cycle.
⚠️ Risk note:
Failure to hold above $108.5K could slow momentum, bringing price back to retest lower trendline support.
💬 Summary:
BTC is positioned for a potential weekend volume push, with a clear channel structure guiding price toward the 116K resistance zone. Momentum is cautiously bullish — watching for confirmation through weekend trading activity.
Emotional Debt: The Hidden Cost of Revenge Trading“You don’t lose the most money when you lose a trade.
You lose it when you try to get it back.”
Every trader has felt it — that sudden urge to “win it back.”
You take one loss, then another, and before logic can speak,
you’re already in a new position — not to trade, but to heal.
That’s emotional debt —
The invisible weight carried from one mistake into the next.
What Is Emotional Debt?
Just like financial debt, it compounds.
A small emotional reaction today becomes a bigger one tomorrow.
You start trading your frustration, not your system.
You stop managing risk — because ego takes over management.
You don’t see charts anymore. You only see revenge.
How It Builds Up
Ignoring losses instead of reflecting on them
Measuring self-worth by daily profit or loss
Forcing trades to “prove” something to yourself
Confusing emotional recovery with market opportunity
The Interest You Pay
Emotional debt doesn’t just cost money — it costs focus.
It clouds your judgment, narrows your vision,
and pushes you further from the patience that once made you consistent.
Breaking the Cycle
Pause after every loss. Step away.
Write what triggered your next impulse.
Accept that no single trade can fix an emotional imbalance.
Remember: You are not your last trade.
When you clear emotional debt, you stop trading to recover —
and start trading to understand.
Let go of the need to get it back.
The market gives clarity only to those who stop chasing closure.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
Have you ever caught yourself trading from emotion instead of structure?
Share your thoughts — awareness begins with honesty.
BTCUSD: Market Sentiment & Forecast
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the BTCUSD pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
TVS Srichakra Ltd *TVS Srichakra Ltd*
Rising C&H Formation underway on Yearly Basis.
P&F Formation in Yearly Basis.
Strong Vol. Consolidation.
14% Upside Needed & to be sustained for big BO.
*Trail SL with Upside.*
*Book Profit as per Risk Appetite*
*Do your own research. This is an opinion.*
*_Happy Investing_*🤓
STO/USDT (4H)A clear Double Bottom pattern is forming, and the rising volume confirms strong buying pressure — suggesting that a long entry can be taken now.
Price has broken above the neckline resistance around 0.169 – 0.170, showing potential for a bullish continuation.
🟢 Entry: Current levels (0.169 – 0.171)
🛡️ Stop Loss: Below 0.155
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 0.1835
TP2: 0.2000
The breakout with increasing volume supports the idea of a mid-term trend reversal.
#STO #USDT #CryptoAnalysis #DoubleBottom #TradingView #BullishSetup #Breakout #VolumeConfirmation
Gold - The most obvious top!🪙Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) will reverse soon:
🔎Analysis summary:
After we witnessed a major breakout back in 2024, Gold has been rallying about +120% ever since. However, Gold is now approaching a monster resistance trendline of the long term rising channel. It is really just a matter of time until Gold will create its official top.
📝Levels to watch:
$4,500
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
APPLE Next Buy Zone Apple has been one of the lagging stocks I’ve analyzed in previous posts, where I discussed its price action as a major underperformer compared to the broader indices and other large-cap stocks.
As a mega-cap company, Apple is undeniably one of the key drivers of both the index and the overall market. If Apple begins a correction, there’s a strong likelihood that the index itself will trade lower as a result.
Following the completion of a complex combination correction (W–X–Y–X–Z), where the final Z-wave forms a triangle, we can apply trend-based Fibonacci extensions to project the contractionary phases in the market based on prior structure. Since this is a corrective wave, once it completes, price action should rotate back into the broader uptrend, currently surpassing the previous high by roughly $17.
I also believe the Elliott Wave count here identifies the current structure as the top of Wave 3. The recent push into new highs appears to be a three-wave corrective structure (A–B–C), with the 1 to 1 trend-based Fibonacci extension suggesting an expansion target near $277 — potentially marking an earnings high and a “sell-the-news” opportunity or, at minimum, a take-profit zone.
If Apple starts to break down from current levels, I’d be closely watching for a move back toward the previous most-traded zone, shown as the blue Volume POC on the chart. This would align with Elliott Wave theory, which states that Wave 4 cannot overlap the high of Wave 1. Since the first correction in this structure appears to be a flat A–B–C, Wave 4 could potentially be deeper and more pronounced.
A pullback toward the $227 level would be particularly attractive to me as a long-term investment opportunity in Apple.
ICPUSDT Forming Falling WedgeICPUSDT is currently forming a classic falling wedge pattern, which is widely recognized as a bullish reversal setup in technical analysis. This structure indicates that selling pressure is gradually weakening while buyers are beginning to accumulate positions. As the wedge narrows, momentum is likely to shift in favor of the bulls, suggesting a potential upside breakout in the near term. With the current volume holding strong, the setup hints at growing investor participation and confidence in a possible price recovery.
The coin has been consolidating for some time, creating a base of support that could serve as a launchpad for the next bullish move. A breakout above the wedge’s resistance line would confirm the trend reversal, potentially driving prices toward the projected gain of 90% to 100%. Traders keeping an eye on momentum indicators like RSI and MACD may find early signs of strength, reinforcing the bullish outlook for ICPUSDT.
Investor interest has been steadily increasing as the project continues to gain visibility in the crypto market. The combination of a strong technical pattern, supportive volume, and improving sentiment positions ICPUSDT for a significant move upward once the breakout is confirmed. This could mark the beginning of a fresh uptrend for the coin as it attracts more short- and medium-term investors looking for momentum-driven opportunities.
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