KC is hitting some fibs and speculators have been getting heavily long over the past 3 weeks as per COT data.
PMARP showing a good sign of over exuberance.
From what I can tell the consensus on it is that there's a big shortage and it cant go down, which is common across a few other commodities at the moment (CL etc). Consensus is rarely correct.
Much of the...
For my coffee drinkers - Both Arabica and Robusta had a strong start to the year. However, seasonally a bearish phase starts from 22 Feb to 31 Mar. The technical price target was also reached yesterday. In the last 17 years we can observe a negative trend between 22 Feb to 1 Mar. Only in 5 out of 17 years did the coffee price rise during this period. On average,...
Like most commodities, London coffee futures saw a massive price uptrend in 2021. However, since the beginning of 2022, it's finally cooled off to an eight and half month low. As a silver lining, perhaps more interesting price action is currently heading our way.
With a very sharp fall during the last two weeks of February it's since consolidated, trading between...
The bottom side of this triangle was confirmed multiple times now. Waiting for a test of the upper side and/or just a breakout.
The next target zone will be around 250-255 USX.
Fundamentals: The coffee Market has been in a strong bullish trend ever since a frost hit the brazil coffee belt in July / August 2021, followed by a period of drought. This left the world´s biggest producer of Arabica coffee with huge productivity losses for the 2021/2022 crop. That results in a really tight Arabica balance sheet for 2022, which could get worse...
It can be seen after the MA arrives and makes a small turn towards the upside, price immediately follows
This can be observed on the latest MA (yellow)
The price is within a Rising Wedge (a bearish pattern) but this observation of the MA's give me hope for a bull breakout, as can be seen with each MA in the past
... Again. Wait for it, tough! Let the U$D bottom vs. the Real, first, this being a pure currency play on the USD/BRL. (Fundamentals don't matter here; The market is balanced, nothing is happening - despite the occasional make-belief news flashes to the contrary.)
Made an awful lot of money on the way up here ;-) and now, it's time to cash in on the upcoming sell-off.
Could Coffee drop to $0 (or even go negative), much like crude oil did not too long ago??... You be the judge.
While currently long (a generational speculative bubble and all), this is likely the one to watch for one of the greatest Short Setups in ages!
Here is the Monthly. See it, yet?...
No?!
The Quarterly;
How about now?
Still no?! Let me zoom in for you.
Look at the structure... from Highs to lows before explosive uptrends of over 150pts 4 out of 5 happen in Janurary : )
Weather patters in 4 of the 5 Major Growing reagions are severly stressed : )
This is good for 20.00, strait to 110.00!
The Real has stayed suppressed, at least until now, nevertheless, this is a major short here.
Here is the Weekly;
Chances are that this is headed much much lower from here.
3 separate (Bearish Bat + Gartley) PRZs line up @160!
With the Real strengthening but also, option volatility rather expensive @ 41%...
... we have bought up the Dec. 2020, 140-160 CALL Spreads for $1095 a pop.
We are expecting Coffee to finish the year >160.00, for a 1:7.3 R/R on this trade - i.e. $7500 / contract.
Good luck out there!
