At first I thought Carney was very concerned with inflation and yet it seems he is more concerned with Brexit and given the BOE independence, they can divert from the original inflation target i.e. withstand more inflation or GBP weakened to smooth the Brexit experience. Given his talk, I don't think the PM will reverse her tone.
USD has been increasing consistently over the Asian session. It's a aftermath effect as market digest more of Yellen's yesterday speech, plus there are some more US data coming up and is on average expected to be good. My statistical analysis shows that the data may not be as good as expected. Furthermore I think Governor Poloz's speech later in the day is a more...
Actually I do not believe Draghi's speech will be "very" hawkish. What gives me more confident to put this trade on is because the market may have oversold EUR. More particularly EURGBP (following PM Theresa May's last week comment). Retail sentiment is short EUR (except for the EURNZD - which is due to NZ's mixed election result) so I want to go Long. Technical...
NZD has been weak since the stalemate election. I looked at this pair yesterday and thought I wanted to go short it given CAD is a strong currency and generally there are few major news for it this week (BOC Governor Poloz's speech tomorrow and the GDP on Friday). NZD in my opinion can remain surpressed as the NZ politician scramble to form a coalition...
This morning JPY strengthen across the board due to Trump and North Korea's comment. In my opinion the move is quite overextended as now the prospect of another bomb test is no longer a surprised. Fundmentally EUR is a strong currency and the reaction yesterday from Draghi's speech was positive. EUR is due a string of data today, of which I expected them to be...
NZD has strengthened across the board following the latest New Zealand election poll which places the ruling National Party in the lead with 46% of the votes and Labour behind on 37%. This is to me a much more a local issue and yet since AUD follows NZD closely, GBPAUD tanked too. Fundamentally, I am Bullish GBP and Neutral to Bearish on AUD, I'd like to fade...
Based on my statistics, the string of US data release will be dissappointing and the market so far sort of agree. The reason I want to go Long USDJPY is because if the market has priced in weakness and it match, there won't be much selling takes place. On the other if any of these data manage to surprise to the upside, I will be very happy. Why USDJPY? The...
Market is Net Sell USD, thinking it's probably will miss the CPI data despite the base expectation of a beat. Now actually I think it does even need to beat the expectation rather just an on target outcome will be enough to send the USD higher. We just had the GBP release which are very good. Eventhough the vote was Neutral as expected, there was hint of BOE...
We have USD PPI data coming up soon and I've been trying to decipher how the market may have anticipated this. Retail sentiment is Net Long of USD so my base expectation is unless its a better-than-expected number we shouldn't see too much of a jump in USD. Historically a beat is ~45% chances, going back to 2007 data. Now to position myself to the trade, there is...
Beside my GBP trade, I'm also looking at US data release. It's a preset for tomorrow CPI release which also anticipated to be good. The reason I don't want to pull the trigger right away is because retail sentiment is also pointing toward a Short on this pair and that makes me worry maybe as the price increase and slowly work through all those SL I may have a...
NZDCAD erased all the gains from CAD rate hike. NZD is a high yield currency so understandably if they gain significantly against low yield currency such as USD but to gain a lot against another commodity currency such as CAD is puzzeling to me. Next week there is not much news for both NZD and CAD but the most significant data left this week is the CAD...
Short term market sentiment can often drive the currency pair to a price level that does not make senses fundamentally. As my failed JPY trade unwinded in the morning, I've been too occupied with the NZDCAD play and totally disregarded the mean reversal aspect of FX as rate stray too far from general equilibrium. My observation: the overcrowded JPY trade should...
This morning as the beginning of Asia session you can see that the market bid up AUD prepping for a good Trade Balance Data. This is kinda hit and miss historically, I just did a quick statistics analysis to data release since end of 2013 and the missed forecast currently at 49%. Not very encouraging for a certain bet. The price action up until the announcement...
You can all thank me later... As soon as 20 blocks are mined, and people's deposits credit at Via BTC and other exchanges allow deposits this house of cards will melt down...at the same time boosting BTC. Please sell all for BTC now.
Hmm, I’ve got my contrarian hat on, as week AMZN seem to have closed with a pinball price action at 24-Jul. This could be a short-term profit taking for some bulls. However the Long term trend is Upward with Higher-High and Higher-Low’s. Resistance zone: $1030 - 1090 Support 1: $962 Support 2: $835-840 ATR: 40 2N: 80 ENTRY: 987 STOP: 1067 P1: 947 P2: 907
I wrote an extensive piece on NSPR in which I go into depth on the company and the potential turnaround story, you can find it here: rockvuecapital.wordpress.com Trading at a 77% discount to book value, an 81% discount to sales, an 81% discount to NCAV, and a 43% discount to net cash, NSPR is roadkill in the market. However, no matter how great the value may...
Tesla bullish over the long-term however a short-pinbar price action occured at 14-Feb. Chart: Daily Action: Short Stop:288 Entry: 280
I have been operating on the assumption that the Dow Jones TVC:DJI will reach 20,000 as it certainly Makes America Great(er) Again(Than before 20,000)!!! *insert charming sentence about the interrelated...ness'... of markets* Thus the S&P 500 will likely also rally... that takes us to the end of the macro (arguably still mostly technical) analysis portion, thank...