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Correlation

Gold Strategic Overview before new weekMy weekly views on gold are indicated on the presentation. Even though the buy signal is coming, I think this is the only response buys for now. The bull market continues on the main channel. And in 2020, even though I expect higher peaks than 2019, I think that gold prices should fall slightly. I expect gold prices to fall in the medium term.It is very important to have the position size to withstand this. The USDJPY parity can give you the clue about when the due date will come. This is because the correlation between the Japanese yen and gold price movements is very high in the weekly timeframe. When we look at the gold / silver ratio, we see that the pair continues under the leadership of gold. Here is a possibility Minor - trend line can be challenged. Although I personally go over the net short position on a weekly basis, I am of the opinion that short positions will be opened on a daily basis. Although it is a bit risky now, it is a good idea to follow it carefully and achieve the appropriate risk / reward ratio. I wish success to all traders in the new week , regards.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Noldo
2
EW: Corrective Bonds Indicate Resistance On StocksHello traders! Today we will talk about the bond and stock market and their correlations. As you can see, US and German Bonds are moving more or less together and the same thing is with US and German stocks. Of course, there are no perfect correlations, but overall looking they are in positive correlation. At the same time bonds and stocks are also more or less in negative correlation and again, there are no perfect correlations, but at the end they always somehow get caught. Well, what we currently see from Elliott Wave perspective is that both, US and German bond market might be finishing their corrections, which would be limited for the stock market. So, if we are on the right path, then stocks may face a resistance, at least a temporary. US stocks (S&P500) may see a decline from the upper ending diagonal line, while German stocks (DAX) may face a temporary resistance at the upper channel line. However, this is not the case yet, but if bond market suddenly bounces and stock market declines in strong and impulsive fashion, then we should be aware of the potential risk-off sentiment that can lasts for some time. Be humble and trade smart! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
EUREX:FDXM1!Education
by ew-forecast
ETH and BTC are perfectly direct correlatedAnalysis of Ethereum should always take into account current Bitcoin price action. If we look at the 1 day timeframe scale charts of ETH and BTC we would see that there are similar fractal repeats. Taking a closer look at the short-term timeframe scale reveals a direct and perfect correlation of the assets. We can see 7 similar price action formations which took place exactly at the same time. Deeper analysis shows that ETH replicates BTC movements with up to 5 minutes lag. This is a very long period to take action. Taking into account the recent BTC analysis we see price action of this asset reached its top and currently should go down making a channel breakout rejection and another fractal repeat. Thus ETH will replicate this movement and it will be favorable to open short position. Target in such scenario will be a bottom of the channel around $168 Although there is still a chance that the breakout will be confirmed, it will happen once a 4 hour candle closes green above $8 118 level. In this case there are 2 long position targets for ETH 1: $178 2: $183 Carefully track the progress of the price action to take a decision. It is a good moment to earn profit with ETH
by Skyrexio
EW Analysis: Bullish Emerging Markets May Push EURUSD HigherHello traders! Today we will talk about emerging markets(EEM) and EURUSD. As you can see in the first chart, there's a positive correlation between emerging markets and EURUSD. Of course, there are no tick by tick correlations, but the current wave structure it's telling us that we may see a bigger recovery in the upcoming days/weeks. Emerging markets can be trading in a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) recovery up to 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 46 area, especially after that break out of the corrective channel, so in our opinion EEM may easily stay in the bullish trend. At the same time we can see strong and impulsive recovery on EURUSD, which is telling us that the temporary bottom can be in place and a bigger three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) correction can be underway up to 1.15 - 1.18 area, mainly because of break out of the wedge pattern (ending diagonal). Notice that these are daily charts and they may take some time to completely unfold, so don't get confused on the smaller time frame charts. We just want to give you an idea, where the markets can be headed long/mid-term. Be humble and trade smart! If you like our analysis, then please give us a like and share it! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Education
by ew-forecast
5
Negatively correlated assetsIn times of increasing instability investors tend to invest in gold and pass from the iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK). Note : Pick seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of global equities of companies primarily engaged in mining, extraction or production of diversified metals, excluding gold and silver. It is always good to have in portfolio actives with negative correlation, so you dont lose wehn the market goes down. In our case, pick and brent have a negative correlation with Gold and viceversa.. Thus, using negatively correlated investments in his portfolio helps to reduce the overall volatility of the portfolio.
CBOE:PICK
by Market_Referee
2
Anti-correlação USD.CAD / WTIBom dia a todos, Neste gráfico junto o par USD.CAD em conjunto com o WTI. Já é do conhecimento de todos de que são 2 activos que revelam algum grau de anti correlação. As perdas no petróleo permanecem limitadas pela fraqueza generalizada do dólar americano e pelo aumento das tensões entre a Turquia e a Síria aliada ao Irão. As tensões geopolíticas ameaçam interromper o fornecimento de petróleo dos produtores da OPEP. Além disso, a agitação política nos dois produtores de petróleo da Opep, Iraque e Equador, agrava ainda mais os riscos de interrupção do fornecimento, com a produção de petróleo do Equador provavelmente caindo em um terço em meio a protestos. Os mercados continuam focados nas negociações comerciais EUA-China e em novas actualizações geopolíticas do Oriente Médio para a próxima direcção dos preços.
TVC:USOIL
by BJEPFamilyOffice
BTC | Correlation doesn't assume causationIt sure doesn't. But in BTC's case, it seems as though the two go hand in hand. And despite the rhetoric of BTC being a hedge against risk on assets, since 2011, BTC has a correlation coefficient of about r=0.78 compared to that with gold of about r= -0.14. Go figure. And then again, when all shit breaks loose, all asset classes converge to 1. But BTC has never experienced a macro econ recession. If it does, will it also be gaining? As CNBC's Thomas Lee once stated BTC is ambidextrous, we all hope so. And although BTC is volatile as f*ck, compared to the S&P, BTC's Sharpe Ratio once again steals the show: BTC YTD Sharpe: 42.9 S&P YTD Sharpe: 20.8 So what's is going to take for BTC to pump again? Do we need the S&P to also pump some? Well as the eve of the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China creeps up on us, it's easy to say getting a trade deal done will be the catalyst. But with comments from US officials on Friday threatening to delist Chinese stocks from US exchanges...HOLD on tighter.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by jiamijiang
AUD/USD Divergence Timeframe: 4 Hour Trend: Up -AUD/USD has made strong gains over the last 2 weeks. Price is currently trading around the 0.50 fib level and is showing some rejection at the 0.50 fib level indicating that buying power is slowing down. -Bearish divergence can be seen on the Stochastic RSI, indicating some pull back may be warranted to the 0.382 level. This would be good for the uptrend as old resistance is near that level and could act as support. -Something else to look at is the correlation of NZD/USD (orange line) and AUD/USD, which has an approximate 90% positive correlation on the Daily TF and approximately 85% on the 4 hour TF. NZD/USD had a similar price action a few days ago and broke to the downside on Friday's session, taking a look some price action divergence can be seen there to. I am expecting AUD/USD to follow suite next week and break to the downside for a correction. Ideally NZD/USD would pull up a bit next week so the correlation between the two gets back into equilibrium. -Look for price to possible correction to the 0.382 level (0.6830 area) and old resistance (0.6820 area).
Short
by MC_Mike_Trading
GOLD: News or Technical Analysis?#Perfect Spot and BULL-concernsHey tradomaniacs, in this chart I want to show you my concerns about Gold and why I wouldn`t buy right now. Technically we see a very nice chance to buy right at the trendline, especially since the correction seems to be done according to E.W. and the fact that we are right at the trendline PLUS a very nice round number, which is 1.500 here. The 4h and Daily-Chart would give us a very nice opportunity to buy here with a very great Risk-Reward-Ratio. Buy the questions for me: Who is going to win? TA`s or fundamentals? Will see a bulltrap ? Yersterday we have seen a flood a bullish news for the stock-market: "China`s Premier Li say that us and China should find a solution to the ongoing trade dispute and hopes that trade talks make progess. There was an immediate "risk on" move. European equitiy indices spiked higher as a result of these headlines." Right after we have seen a tweet by Trump saying that he doesn`t need John Bolton, a convonced hardliner anymore. Trumps rating has never been as bad as now and he will have to "calm down" in terms of tradewar talks in order to advoid a recession in the USA which is, and that is what the market believes, caused by the tradewar and its tarrifs. If he wants to be re-elected in 2020, he`d have to push the "risk aversion" and give the market reasons to shift there money into the stock-market. A higher risk-aversion would weaken Gold and push the globale Stock-Market, such as indicies like S&P500. Additionally we see positive reactions by the bulls and in terms of correlations we can see bullish momentums at USD/JPY and USD/CHF, which are correlating with the stock-market. And since everyone seems to bullish, this would provide a lot of liquidity to the Big Players to sell. ;-) So what is going to win? This uptrend? Or will Trump violate the Trendline? LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Trading2ez
1
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 10Correlation: Correlation is a key concept and can make the difference between both winning trades and losing trades as well as good trades becoming great trades. As those who follow me know, I trade almost exclusively the GBP pairs. Ideally, we want to see all the pairs moving in the same direction. That is a great sign that not only will the trade be successful but that there will be a big move. If there is a correlated directional move, there is a high probability that it will be a big move day. When that happens, once the trade is 1xRisk, we can move the stop to flat and let it run to the profit target. When the pairs are mixed, we have to be more cautious. If they are evenly split, 3 bullish and 3 bearish, we can take the first breakout trade, but not pullback trades. Once that trade is + 1xRisk, we can close ½ our position and move the stop to flat. This is how we make money on not so good days. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this past week were great examples of correlated directional moves. While Thursday, was a split day where at the European open 3 of the GBP pairs were bullish and 3 were bearish. The GBP pairs sold off first allowing for a decent gain in GBPCHF and then rallied. If you master Correlation, your trading will go to the next level. I hope you enjoy this post post and find it helpful. I would appreciate if you "like" it and follow me. Stay Green my Friends :) Allen I am now accepting “pre-order” commitments for my book. I am not asking for any money now. But for those who pre-order, they will receive a priority for one of the bonuses that I am providing. The cost of the book is $54.95 and will be available September 30. If you interested please send me an email to FXGold54@gmail.com
Education
by AGold54
8