ECB prepares for the move On the eve of a turning-point meeting in October, the ECB provided deeper insight in its plans of tapering off the asset purchase program. A recent statement by the regulator says that commercial banks should increase the amount of reserves to cover toxic debts next year. Such a measure looks like reinsurance before ECB starts to cut...
Inflation holds back the ECB The chief ECB economist, Peter Prat, expressed concerns over the weak inflation in September, saying that while carrying out stimulus cuts ECB should not forget about inflation targeting. The official hinted at the ECB's high caution in this regard. It should be noted that the conduct of money supply shocks is a very sensitive and...
Catalonia Independence Independence in Catalonia as a harbinger of the political crisis in Spain. How can the division of the country could affect the euro? Any political crisis is a bad example for other peoples or nationalities wishing to take advantage of the right to self-determination (in the Spanish Constitution of 1978 there is no such right). In the...
Strong US GDP The data on US economy released on Tuesday was yet another proof that the Fed needs to raise rates in December. US GDP grew at a higher pace in the second quarter than expected. Inventories rose in August by 1 percent, reflecting the confidence of producers in improving consumer demand outlook. Curiously, GDP was resistant to a drop in inflationary...
After achieving new HIGH a hl is expected around 200ema/61.8 Price could bounce and weekly fib suggests a 800 pip ascent....
The Federal Reserve left interest rate unchanged at the meeting on Wednesday, but surprisingly saw December hike appropriate despite persisting slack on inflation front. As expected, the Fed set a green light to balance sheet cut, amounted 4.2 trillion. dollars, most of which has been amassed after the 2008 mortgage crisis. According to new economic forecasts, 11...
I wanted a break of this support level. But I woke up this morning to see that the price didn't close below. SO, the price could bounce off this support back on course to 1.2. ECB still wants to stop euro growth temporarily, but the markets are dumb and to think like a dumb person, makes me go long. Br-exit talks later. stay Chunese
A strong rejection of the 1.2000 quarter point after FOMC announced they'd start reducing the massive balance sheet can see the pair reversing trend. An inverse H&S can be seen on the dollar index possibly signaling the start of a bullish trend for USD. Best to wait for a break and retest of the neckline before entry.
September FED meeting US fixed income and stock markets are preparing to lose cushion as Fed may announce the onset of balance-sheet cut at the meeting on Wednesday. Termination of reinvestment policy and a smooth shedding of securities means a complete switching off of the "rescue mode” which has been regulator’s state for about a decade. The market...
Chinese data Weak August for the Chinese economy jolted stock markets pointing to addiction of economic growth to credit stimulus. High real estate prices kept high rates of investment in the sector, while industry and retail sales and fixed investment undershoot. Meeting of the Bank of England As noted in the previous analytical note, the growing gap...
Set to take risk The reassessment of possible damage from Hurricane Irma in a positive direction and the project signed by Trump on providing aid to the victims extended the period of optimism in the US stock exchanges. The S & P 500 index seems to have fallen into dependence on any positive news, updating records. The dollar remains in limbo, sellers made a...
The German manufacturing sector is losing ground, showed a factory orders report published on Wednesday. The key figure suddenly fell by 0.7% in July, after rising by 0.9% in June. Weak domestic demand was the main cause of slowdown, while orders of the outside world remained stable. A silver lining in all of this was the note that orders activity reached the...
As i mentioned yesterday Possible reversal from 1.1991 to 1.1200 psychological level. Reversal level reached today, I am gng to take sell positions on those levels. Due to ECB meeting there is chance to price will spike up to 1.1218 level.
Mario Draghi and ECB rate announcement in the course of the day under focus. Chances of tapering postponement is likely. Disappointed, bears should be in charge. Trade should turn out as follows if conditions are met: Sell Stop: 1.1955 Stop Loss above 1.1975 Take Profit: 1.1915
Draghi is due to speak tonight during the ECB Press Conference. I guess today this is all market will talk about. The morning session up to this point has not hinted much, aside from EURAUD moving up due to AUD bad data, the rest is kinda sideway. Running into this event I don't have any particular insights, given the structure of first statement, followed by Q&A,...
In view of this coming ECB risk event, we are going with a bearish bias on EURUSD. Price has formed a 5-wave move since 21st June from the low @ 1.1120 to the high @ 1.2070 on 29th August. This forms the 3rd bullish wave on the higher degree. With the recent price development, we are expecting a retracement to the downside towards 1.1732 area; and we are...
Reserve Bank of Australia stretched the period of soft credit conditions for mortgage borrowers, key agents of debt financing in the country, leaving cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The peaceful course of the Central Bank was predicted by all 27 economists surveyed Bloomberg and partly was justified by a positive statistics on the real estate market. A low rate is...
The European currency failed to hold the gains of recent bullish momentum, which led EURUSD above 1.20, as investors suddenly began to buy dollars against the backdrop of uncompromising growth in the US economy. Markets have tried to distract from Trump and North Korea, especially since with Trump's mild reaction to the recent launch of the North Korean missile,...